In 2019 I had been doing some deep data dives into the migration of people within the U.S., from state to state, and declared that the Republican-leaning states should see a rise in population enough to account for a net gain of 5 Electoral College votes. Then 2020 happened, and the population shift got all muddy.
To be clear, the same trends continued. But they were accelerated in certain ways and slowed in others. Let's dive into the numbers, and I'll explain.
First, the losers:
California -1
Illinois -1
New York -1
Those are Democrat locks. But also:
West Virginia -1
Ohio -1
Aside from Joe Manchin, WV is a red bastion. Ohio used to be a swing state but has become more reliably Republican recently. All the rest of the losers are swing states.
Michigan -1
Pennsylvania -1
So that's where people have moved away FROM. But more importantly, where are they moving TO? That's how we see who gained votes and who lost.
Texas +2
Montana +1
Florida +1
North Carolina +1
There's your 5 relatively safe GOP gains. GOP +5.
But wait, there's more!
Colorado +1
Oregon +1
Those are almost certainly Dem pickups in a presidential election year. GOP +3 That's the final verdict for the next decade. All things staying relatively equal, the GOP will gain a net 3 votes. This matters, because in a close race, you basically gained a small state for free. Consider this very possible map in a close election:
Although we are probably coming back to the same conclusion, overall. The rust belt is where the action is. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will probably decide the next president, and maybe presidents for years, regardless of population movement.
Ryan Wiggins is the author of the extremely serious and not funny robot novel, The Life of Human, and is a writer and producer of television shows. He is the host of Wiggins America on 97.1 FM Talk in St. Louis.
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