On one hand, you have agenda-backed polling agencies tied to major media outlets. These are the polls you hear about most.
On the other you have Trafalgar. This is a polling agency that has been remarkably accurate for several election cycles in a row, yet gets very little mainstream credit outside of Fox News. For instance, in the recent November elections, they are on record predicting a narrow Glenn Younkin win in VA, and a narrow Phil Murphy wins in NJ. Both were spot on. And they were surprises to most pollsters (other than Trafalgar).
Here's where Trafalgar stands on several key issues heading into 2022:
"How do you think Joe Biden is handling his job?" 59% disapprove. 36% approve.
"Build Back Better helpful or hurtful to the economy?" 52% hurtful. 38% helpful.
"What is your opinion on Omicron?" 69% no more mandates. 30% more mandates are needed.
Swing state election polls, 2022 and 2024:
Nevada Governor: Heller (R) 46%. Sisolak (D) 40%.
Nevada Senate: Laxalt (R) 44%. Matso (D) 41%
New Hampshire: Trump (R) 48% Biden (D) 46% or Harris (D) 46%
Trafalgar still has Hassan (D) beating any Republican challenger for Senate in NH, but it's interesting, in and of itself, to see one of the most accurate pollsters focusing its resources currently on two states that have moved reliably blue in recent years. It says that the usual recent swing states may be further down the red road than anticipated because pollsters choose to focus on the closest races deliberately. These states should not be this close.
There are politicos out there who want to throw out Trafalgar as a right-leaning polling agency. When you look at Real Clear Politics, there's a big bright "R" next to their name. But whether you put an R next to their name or a D or an X or a Q, results are the only thing that matters, and Trafalgar for several election cycles has been among the most accurate.
Ryan Wiggins is the author of the extremely serious and not funny robot novel, The Life of Human, and is a writer and producer of television shows. He is the host of Wiggins America on 97.1 FM Talk in St. Louis.
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