Had all gone according to plan in 2020, Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal would have started the season in Triple-A Toledo and finished it in Detroit. But this is 2020 as we know it, with the sports world on pause and its resumption unclear.
We should see Major League Baseball at some point this summer. The return of the minors is far less certain, which puts the Tigers in a tricky position with their Big Three.
"There's no doubt that's probably one of the worst things that could happen to us, not having Minor League baseball this year so far," Avila told 97.1 The Ticket's Pat Caputo over the weekend. "They're going to miss on, number one, a higher level of competition, which is very important for your experience. And the building-up of innings pitched, also very important as you move on from year to year."
The increase in work load is especially important for Mize. He barely cracked 100 innings last season after missing about a month with a shoulder ailment and then being shut down for good in August. That's why it might behoove the Tigers to bring him to Detroit if and when MLB resumes, assuming the minor leagues remain suspended.
It could benefit Skubal and Manning, too. The former was dominant in spring training, where Tigers special assistant Jim Leyland said he became 'the talk of baseball.' An early summons to Detroit might be the best way -- and perhaps the only way -- for all three of them to stay sharp.
But there are risks to consider, too, like the potential harm in exposing a young arm to the majors before he's ready. And there remains the issue of starting their clocks toward free agency, in what's starting to feel like a lost season.
For now, Avila is banking on some version of baseball this summer, and hoping that includes the minors. The Tigers will figure out the rest as more details emerge.
"There's really not an answer until we know for sure if there's going to be any Minor League baseball at all this year," he said. "And if not, then will there be Minor League baseball to some degree in the fall and winter, like an enhanced instructional league, Arizona Fall League, winter baseball? And all that is unknown.
"So you have to plan for the worst in that if there's no per se 'developmental baseball' between now and the end of the season, then you're really just starting all over again next year."
The one thing Avila's satisfied with is the work that's being put in on the side.
"I get a detailed report every week about what everybody (in the organization) is doing, and these guys are working out," he said. "The guys that have the ability to go and throw bullpens, they're doing that, so at least that's going on. Now that's not good enough obviously, because you need them to keep playing in games.
"But at the very least, worst case scenario, we strap them on next spring. Best case scenario, some kind of minor leagues start this summer. And the middle ground would be some kind of developmental league that we can create in the fall and winter. But nobody can tell you right now what's going to happen."
With MLB eyeing a re-start in late June or early July, Avila said he's on daily conference calls with execs around the league. There's a growing belief that big-league baseball is on the horizon.
"The main thing is, it has to be safe for everybody. It's about safety first, and then baseball after. I think at the end of the day, just because of all the conversations that I've been on, I really think and I'm very hopeful that Major League Baseball will be back at some point this summer," Avila said. "I feel confident about that. Minor League baseball, I'm not as sure because that's a whole different situation."
