Red Wings Could See Major Boost In Draft Lottery Odds

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When the Red Wings clinched the best odds in this year's draft lottery way back in March, they had an 18.5 percent chance at the top pick and the right to select star winger Alexis Lafreniere. They were more likely to pick fourth than anywhere in the top three. 

Not ideal. 

That was before the NHL suspended play due to the coronavirus, before a good chunk of the regular season was wiped out and before the league sent out a memo last Friday with a proposal for a new lottery format. That proposal could be a major win for Detroit. 

Instead of selecting three winners, the NHL would draw for the No. 1 pick only. So the furthest any team could slide is one spot. And the winner wouldn't be allowed to move up more than four spots, taking 10 teams out of the running for the top pick. 

Suddenly, the Red Wings would be guaranteed, at worst, the No. 2 pick. And they'd have a 57 percent chance of picking first, an increase in odds of over 200 percent. 

That's ... ideal!

In 2012, there were 14 lottery teams. It would be 15 now. So 2020 odds would change a bit. Here were 2012 odds to “win the lottery” and move up a max of 4 spots:1. 25%2. 18.8%3. 14.2%4. 10.7%5. 8.1%6. 6.2%7. 4.7%8. 3.6%9. 2.7%10. 2.1%11. 1.5%12. 1.1%13. .8%14. .5%

— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) May 4, 2020

The proposed changes to the lottery were made with an expanded playoff format in mind. It effectively covers the concerns that a team could win both the Stanley Cup and the draft lottery. 

The memo from the NHL also indicated the league would like to hold the draft sometime in June. That would take place before the Finals, if the playoffs are held at all. 

A decision on the draft, one way or another, is expected later this week. 

Lafreniere, the presumptive No. 1 pick, had 35 goals and 112 points in 52 games this season in Quebec Major Junior. Other top prospects include Canadian center Quinton Byfield and German winger Tim Stutzle.