Entering December last season, the Red Wings were on pace for 100 points through 22 games. Entering December this season, they are on pace for 100 points through 22 games. Now what?
Last year, the Wings faded. They won five of 13 games in December and 10 of 26 through January, a swoon that proved too much to overcome. If you were looking for it, you probably could have seen it coming. The bulk of Detroit's wins had come against teams that would miss the playoffs, their goaltending and special teams were covering flaws in their five-on-five play and their roster didn't look deep enough to withstand the normal attrition of an NHL season.
This year, the Red Wings have weathered some early storms. They dropped two excruciating games in Sweden last month, the end of a 3-5-3 slide, then flew home and won three in a row against playoff teams from last season, including their second regulation win of the year against the Bruins. They lost their captain and best player this week, then gave the NHL-leading Rangers everything they could handle in a close loss at MSG and dispatched the Blackhawks from LCA the next night. And the skies might be clearing: the schedule lightens up in December and Dylan Larkin should return Saturday night.
"I think it's been our competitiveness first," said J.T. Compher after sliding into Larkin's spot on the top line and scoring twice in the Wings' 5-1 win Thursday night. "It's been every game, it's been consistent and it's a big part of why we're being successful. But also maturity. When we're playing our structure correctly and playing fast, we're a tough team to beat. And we're starting to see the results when we do it right for 60 minutes."
This wasn't all that true Thursday night, when the Red Wings beat a bad team without playing their best game. But that's what good teams do, right? Based on last season's standings, Detroit is 6-7-1 this season against playoff teams, 6-0-2 against everyone else. That's one path toward the top of the standings: tangle with the best, trample the worst. The Wings have banked the points their schedule has afforded them.
"It's funny," Derek Lalonde said Thursday night. "We played so much better last night (and lost). (This was) probably our least detailed game since we've been back from Europe, but the good sign is, we scored five goals and won."
Warning signs remain. The advanced numbers still don't love Detroit's play at five-on-five. The Wings are 23rd in expected goals share and 30th in scoring chances share, after fishing 26th and 27th, respectively, in those categories last season. Their offense is being propped up by their power play and an NHL-leading five-on-five shooting percentage that's due to regress. They've benefited from better-than-expected goaltending from backups Alex Lyon and James Reimer, which may or may not continue.
Lyon stopped 34 of 35 shots Thursday in what Lalonde said was "arguably his best performance of the season. ... If you look at the volume, the type of chances, the type of grade-A chances and the timing of his saves, he was probably our best player."
There are also reasons to believe. The Wings should be seeing more pucks go in the net this season after adding several proven NHL players up front, highlighted by Alex DeBrincat. The sniper has been exactly as advertised with 12 goals in 22 games, and a shooting percentage not far off his career norm. Likewise, Detroit's power play has taken an expected jump with newcomers like DeBrincat and point-man Shayne Gostisbehere, who, don't look now, is tied for 10th among defensemen in points this season with Erik Karlsson and Shea Theodore. (No, look!) Lucas Raymond, with two more points Thursday, is busting out of his sophomore slump. And the Red Wings are doubling-down offensively by adding Patrick Kane.
"If we can hold up, I think we can compete for a playoff spot," said GM Steve Yzerman this week. "If you look at our conference and our division, it goes for every team, if you stay healthy and your goaltending is good, you're going to be in the mix. And with a healthy Patrick Kane, that gives us a better chance."
By points percentage, the Red Wings enter December fourth in the Atlantic and sixth in the East, which isn't as immovable as you might think -- or as Lalonde and the Wings might have you believe. They occupy the second wild card spot and have the depth to hang around. No, they don't tout the same talent as some of their conference foes, but they're proving to themselves that it doesn't have to be an excuse. The Detroit Red Wings, in year four under Yzerman, have every reason to set their sights on the playoffs.
"We're at that point where we're not -- and maybe it started somewhere last year -- we're not looking at what the draft odds are," Yzerman said. "We're hoping that we can hang in the hunt here and, if anything, become a better hockey team."
If you recall, the Red Wings briefly lost Dylan Larkin last December and looked impotent without him. It was jarring if not all that surprising, an indictment of the rest of the roster. In two games without Larkin this week, Detroit stood up to a Cup contender and then took care of business against a bottom-feeding team. Small samples can sometimes be revealing. Lyon, who was with the Panthers last season on their run to the Cup Finals, said the Red Wings are "showing signs of a mature hockey team."
They still bear the burden of proof. They aren't a playoff team until they end their seven-year drought, tied for a franchise worst. The blue line is creaky behind Moritz Seider and Jake Walman, experienced but not all that stable. Simon Edvinsson might help. The goaltending remains a concern. Ville Husso has to help. But the Red Wings, all things considered, couldn't have imagined a much better start than this. They are positioned to play meaningful hockey in Hockeytown for the first time since they moved from The Joe.
They slipped last December when they went 1-5-1 against playoff teams. Only six of their 15 games this December are against playoff teams from a year ago. It feels like an opportunity. If they're different, these Red Wings will seize it.
