The NFC North has been dominated by the Green Bay Packers over the last two years and will likely again be the ones with the targets on their back in 2021.
There has been a lot of changes around the rest of the NFC North, though. The Bears drafted a new quarterback in Justin Fields while the Lions traded Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff. Meanwhile, the Vikings have a budding star in Justin Jefferson looking to duplicate a breakout rookie season.
As the 2021 season gets set to begin, here is a look at what to watch for in the NFC North.
Green Bay Packers
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Biggest storyline heading into season?
Aaron Rodgers. You may remember that he actually does not want to be in Green Bay anymore, and, in fact, has been quite vocal about going somewhere different. Can the Rodgers-era Packers finally complete their destiny as copycat '98 Bulls (without, you know, four of the championships) team and win one for the road? Can the press conferences get even more awkward? Somehow it seems like they'll still find a way to win 10+ games, or at the very least beat the Bears twice.
Who will be the X-factor?
Aaron Rodgers. I'm sure you could make some sort of hipster argument for Davante Adams or David Bakhtiari or Jaire Alexander, but I won't subject you to that. Someone else will, but I won't. He's the reigning MVP and first ballot Hall of Famer at the most important position in football. Let's not over think this; he's the X-factor.
The Packers will make the playoffs if...They stay healthy. And quite frankly, they probably make the playoffs even as a banged up team, as long as Rodgers is playing. The NFC North doesn't have anyone seriously pushing them for division supremacy yet – Rodgers alone probably makes Green Bay consistent favorites against even full-strength teams in Chicago, Minnesota, and Detroit. Advancing in the playoffs, though, is a different thing entirely.
The Packers will miss the playoffs if...Aaron Rodgers misses more than eight games. The rumors and whispers coming out of Green Bay re: Jordan Love certainly don't inspire a lot of confidence, and any team that loses an MVP-caliber quarterback probably isn't getting in. Even if their defense significantly regresses, they're going to be able to run with anyone. And to be honest, this year the Packers' season really starts the second it ends, right? -Cam Ellis, 670 The Score
Chicago Bears
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Biggest storyline heading into season?
When Justin Fields will start at quarterback. Ever since the Bears traded up to the 11th overall pick and selected Fields, Chicago has been wondering when it will get to see the prized prospect boasting renewed hope for this franchise.
The Bears have turned to veteran Andy Dalton as their starter to open the season, but Fields is solidified as the backup. It might only be a matter of time this season before the rookie gets his chance.
What will be the X-factor?
A reliable running game. Regardless of whether it's Dalton or Fields at quarterback, the Bears need the foundation of a steady running game. Third-year running back David Montgomery committed himself to a dedicated speed program this offseason, changing his running style and improving his speed from last season.
The Bears also signed veteran Damien Williams, drafted Khalil Herbert in the sixth round and hope to return Tarik Cohen from a torn ACL early in the season. But the Bears must get consistency from their offensive line to open up the rushing attack.
The Bears will make the playoffs if…They can find their dominant form defensively. After ranking as the top defense in football back in 2018, there has been a regression since. Five of the projected starters are on the wrong side of 30, including top pass rushers Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn. The defense must also replace former All-Pro cornerback Kyle Fuller, released in a cap-clearing move.
The Bears will miss the playoffs if…When at its best, the Bears' defense is strong enough to drive a playoff run. But with uncertainty on offense, Chicago needs the defense to be elite. -Chris Emma, 670 The Score
Minnesota Vikings
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Biggest storyline heading into season?
Are the Vikings any good? The NFL is full of teams that could foreseeably win anywhere from 6-11 wins, and the Vikings are no exception. Their 0-3 preseason wasn't exactly filled with inspired performances, but take that for what it's worth. There's more than enough talent on the roster to be a playoff-caliber team – there are plenty of winnable games in the NFC North, and they'll have an opportunity to take advantage of an easy-ish front half of their schedule.
What will be the X-factor?
The defense. They were as injured as any team in football (3rd-most, per Football Outsiders) last season, and still found a way to be a top-20 unit by the end of the year. Getting everyone back, plus Sheldon Richardson and Dalvin Tomlinson, makes for a deep unit that's always well-coached by Mike Zimmer. If they can be a top 10 defense, they'll be a scary team to play.
The Vikings will make the playoffs if...Their defense rebounds. Everson Griffen is not close to his peak anymore, but if he can work with Zimmer to carve out a useful role for himself on defense, they're going to get to a lot of quarterbacks. That's good news given the questions about their secondary. Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, and Justin Jefferson are going to put up big numbers on offense – it'll be the defense that overachieves if the Vikings make the playoffs this season.
The Vikings will miss the playoffs if...The pass rush stays mediocre, which exposes a weak secondary. The defense shows its age and Justin Fields starts before Week 6. Another video of a Vikings skill player losing it over a Kirk Cousins overthrow goes viral, and teams start putting Justin Jefferson in triple coverage. Kellen Mond gets a surprise start after a poor performance from Cousins on national television and that's a wrap on 2021. -Cam Ellis, 670 The Score
Detroit Lions
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Biggest storyline heading into season?
What's the Dan Campbell effect? The Lions new head coach has made all kinds of headlines this offseason with zany quotes (and overzealous coffee orders). And he's thrust some life into a team that needed it. Now we start keeping score. The Lions will undoubtedly play hard for Campbell and his staff of former players. Question is, does Campbell have the game-planning and coaching acumen to make up for his team's lack of talent?
Who will be the X-factor?
Pretty simple on offense: Jared Goff. Is he the two-time Pro Bowl quarterback who led the Rams to the Super Bowl in 2018, or the one with a sub-90.0 passer rating since 2019 who was shipped out of town by Sean McVay? On defense, the Lions have to generate a pass rush to help the youngest group of corners in the NFL.
The Lions will make the playoffs if...The rest of the division implodes? If you believe Goff, the Lions can win the NFC North. Here's how it could happen: Goff plays like a Pro Bowler behind an O-line that fulfills it potential, T.J. Hockenson recreates Calvin Johnson as a tight end, D'Andre Swift fuels a top-10 ground game that recalls the days of Barry Sanders, and a deep defensive line dominates up front to protect a vulnerable secondary. And the Lions win every close game they play.
The Lions will miss the playoffs if...the defense looks anything like last year's outfit that finished last in the NFL and the offense falls short of the Greatest Show on Turf. -Will Burchfield, 97.1 The Ticket
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