Psst. I've got a sure thing for you. Interested? Pay attention then, because I'm only going to go over it once.
What if I told you I could give you the winner of a sports event nearly three out of every four times? Those have got to be odds you couldn't pass up -- if only it really were true.
It is.
And it's upon us this weekend. The NFL's Divisional Playoffs. The surest thing you can find anywhere in sports. Notice I didn't say a sure thing. I said the surest thing. (So keep the tweets and letters to a minimum if it doesn't come through).
Chances are, however, that it will. So here goes: place all of your faith in the home teams this weekend. That means Kansas City beats Indianapolis. The L.A. Rams dump Dallas. New England takes down the Chargers. And New Orleans unseats Philadelphia.
History says this is likely to happen, and the numbers are pretty clear about it. Home teams in the Divisional round since this current NFL playoff format started nearly 30 years ago, in 1990, have an overall record of 82 wins against only 30 defeats. That's almost Golden State Warriors good. At the very least, it's golden.
The winning percentage on that, for the home teams, is .732 (or very, very close to three out of every four games), which is nearly -- in sports at least -- like taking money to the bank. Compare that to the Wild Card round -- just completed last weekend -- in which home teams win at merely a .629 clip (and won only one of four games this season).
The .732 percentage is over one hundred points higher than what you get in the Wild Card round. In the last decade, the dominanace is even more eye-opening than that. Since 2010, Wild Card home teams are 19-17 (.528). Divisional round at home is 23-9 (.719).
There are several reasons for this home dominance, not the least of which is the simple fact that the home teams are seeded higher and are therefore usually just the better team. Secondly, and maybe even more importantly, Divisional round home teams are always coming off of a bye the week before, resting for two weeks before taking on an opponent that already has had to go through the rigors of a playoff game.
When that particlular advantage disappears next weekend -- with no byes before the AFC and NFC Championship games -- the home edge slips back to .661-percent (37-19). Not bad, but not the Divisional round.
Look, if there was such a thing as a guarantee in sports (Joe Namath and the '68 Jets aside in Super Bowl III), they wouldn't be a hole lot of fun. The reason they play the games in the first place is that none of us for sure know who's going to win.
In fact, despite the lofty odds in favor of the home side this weekend, history still suggests that at least one road team will break through. In fact that has happened in 21 of the 28 playoff seasons since 1990 (there we go back to that three out of four ratio again).
So choose carefully this weekend, regardless of what history says. New England, for instance, has lost four home playoff games in its history (but it has won 22, including eight straight). New Orleans hasn't lost a home playoff game since 1993 (but the loss was to the Eagles). Dallas, meanwhile, hasn't won on the road in the playoffs since 1992 (but the Rams lost at home last year, albeit in the Wild Card round).
There simply is no such thing as a mortal lock.
But the NFL's Divisional Playoff round comes about as close as you can to one.
