The one statistic I can't get past heading into the NFL's Wild Card playoffs is this one: the four visiting quarterbacks have made a combined 31 career playoff starts. The four home quarterbacks have made one.
Home may be where the heart is, but I don't believe it will be where the victories are this weekend.
Experience matters at the quarterback position when it comes to playoff football. Very few -- even great QBs -- are effective in their playoff debuts. The Hall of Famer John Elway lost his very first playoff game, 31-7. Peyton Manning was crushed in his, 41-0. Dan Marino was at the helm of a top seeded Miami Dolphins team, but lost at home to the very same Seattle Seahawks team in 1983 that had upset Elway the week before.
The playoff landscape is littered with such stories of struggle. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Troy Aikman all lost their first ever playoff games. Last season, it was Jared Goff, making his playoff debut with the heavily favored Los Angeles Rams, who were beaten by the playoff tested Falcons with Matt Ryan.
Even when young QBs win their playoff openers, it is not without difficulty. Ben Roethlisberger won his first playoff start, but barely passed at a 50% clip and threw two picks in a 2004 victory over the New York Jets. Russell Wilson also was a winner, but was sacked five times in a narrow victory over another first time playoff starter Robert Griffin III in Washington.
Tom Brady posted a win in his playoff debut, a snowy victory over the Oakland Raiders, but needed the "Tuck Rule" to save him from defeat. The Steelers' Terry Bradshaw also won, but he needed the "Immaculate Reception." Of a more recent vintage, Minnesota's Case Keenum had a miracle TD winner of his own to Stefon Diggs last season to knock out New Orleans.
Here are this weekend's QB matchups: Indy and the experienced Andrew Luck (3-3 postseason) vs. first-time playoff starter DeShaun Watson of the Houston Texans. A seasoned Wilson (8-4) for Seattle going against Dak Prescott of Dallas (the only home quarterback in the Wild Card round to have started a playoff game -- he lost it). Rivers (4-5) making his 10th career playoff start against newby Lamar Jackson of Baltimore. And finally, last year's Super Bowl hero Nick Foles (3-1) leads Philadelphia into Chicago to face one last first time playoff starter Mitchell Trubisky.
In all four cases, the visiting team holds a huge experience advantage. In three of the four cases, the home team holds no experience. It's a recipe for home cooking to taste rather bitter this Saturday and Sunday.
And it's a big change for the Colts, Seahawks, Chargers and Eagles to start off on the right foot as they head down the road toward the Super Bowl.
