These first four teams have historically been extremely valuable in terms of moving on pretty far in the tournament.
There have been 10 NCAA Tournaments since the expansion to 68 teams, and nine have featured a First Four team winning multiple games. Don't underestimate these clubs, as any of them have the chance to make a Cinderella run. We saw UCLA do it last season, and now they are one of the top teams in the country.
Who will be next? Let's take a look at some of the matchups and see what we can come up with as to who will win and move on.
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#16 Texas Southern (-3.5) vs. #16 Texas A&M Corpus Christi, O/U 135.5
SWAC champions Texas Southern and Southland champions Texas A&M Corpus Christi will be playing for the right to face #1 Kansas in the Round of 64. That's obviously going to be a daunting task once they get there, but first, they must take on each other to see who will earn that right. When it comes to these teams, don't be looking very closely for some sort of offensive shootout. These teams have great defenses, but their offensive abilities really have a lot to be desired. Texas Southern has the 107th ranked defense in the nation in Adjusted Defense, per KenPom, whereas Corpus Christi ranks 181st in the same stat. If you are new to college basketball, that's actually pretty good when you consider how many teams there are.
Texas Southern is one of the best teams in the nation in defensive effective field goal percentage. They are led by guard PJ Henry, who won his conference tournaments' MVP. Joirdon Karl Nicholas is also one of their bigger threats, but even he is averaging less than 10 points per game. This is a defensive first team that plays hard and has a couple of guys who can score the basketball. Texas Southern struggled out of conference this season, going 2-7 against non-conference Division I opponents, which doesn't bode well for their chances of advancing. They did beat Florida, 69-54, which was easily their most impressive win.
Corpus Christi fared much better out of conference, going 7-3 against Division l opponents, and lost to Minnesota and Notre Dame by 10 points or less. That's really impressive for a team like this. Corpus Christi is also one of the top teams in the nation in offensive rebound percentage. They absolutely dominated the offensive glass all season, and their performance on the boards was a key part of them winning the Southland Tournament.
My best bet for this game would be the UNDER 135 because both teams have great defenses. I expect a really close game that will be low-scoring.
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#11 Rutgers vs. #11 Notre Dame -1, O/U 132
This is projected to be a tight game, as indicated by the current point spread of just 1. Steve Pikiell took over for Rutgers after Eddie Jordan finished 3-33 in their first two seasons in the Big Ten. He has put together one of the best rebuilds in college basketball. Rutgers started this season by struggling to beat Lehigh, Merrimack and NJIT before losing to DePaul, Lafayette and UMass. It wasn't the best start obviously, but they really came on later in the year. Rutgers has six Quad 1 wins, the same number as Arizona, Duke, and Illinois, among other great teams. Four of those six wins came in February or later. Not only that, but they are a very experienced group. Ron Harper Jr. is no stranger to big moments, and his buzzer-beating 3-pointer against Purdue helped jumpstart the turnaround for this team. He is undoubtedly the go-to guy down the stretch with NBA talent. Seniors Geo Baker and Caleb McConnell, and junior Paul Mulcahy form an experienced, capable backcourt that can go deep in this tournament.
Duke was the obvious best team in the ACC, but Notre Dame was right on its heels. They are a balanced team that is capable of shooting its way into a win, but I have some concerns about them moving forward. The Fighting Irish have lost three of their last six games, coming into the First Four cold. They did manage to beat Kentucky back in December, but are just 1-5 against Quad 1 opponents since. Notre Dame went 3-8 against Kenpom's top 75 teams. They have some depth problems as well that I think are pretty concerning, but this team can shoot the lights out on any given day, and we all know how Rutgers on the road this season has been less than stellar.
This is a tough one, but I like Rutgers to advance further.
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