Aaron Judge, Trea Turner and Carlos Correa have all signed megadeals this winter, cashing in after reaching the free agent market. Here's an early look at which stars could be in line to do the same next offseason.
1. Shohei Ohtani: DH/RHP
Shohei Ohtani can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: .273/.356/.519 with 34 home runs, 95 RBIs, 72 walks, .875 OPS and 3.8 WAR ... 15-9 with a 2.33 ERA, 2.40 FIP and 5.6 WAR across 166 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 29
The only question with Ohtani is how long can he continue to be the greatest two-way superstar that baseball has ever seen. In 2021, he hit 46 home runs and won the American League MVP. In 2022, he finished second in AL MVP voting and fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting. He's an international fan-favorite that seems unlikely to remain with the Los Angeles Angels beyond 2023. His free agent stint will be one of the most interesting that we've ever seen.
2. Rafael Devers: 3B
Rafael Devers can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: .295/.358/.521 with 27 home runs, 88 RBIs, 50 walks, .879 OPS and a 4.9 WAR
Age in 2024: 27
Devers is in a great place with a year until free agency. He's still only 26, and is one of the most complete hitters in baseball. What's more, the Boston Red Sox fanbase is irate that John Henry, Chaim Bloom and company didn't pony up enough to re-sign Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts in recent years. If Devers targets $400 million on, say, a 10-year deal, they may have to meet his asking price. And if not, another team(s) will.
3. Manny Machado: 3B
Manny Machado can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: .298/.366/.531 with 32 home runs, 102 RBIs, 63 walks, .898 OPS and 7.4 WAR
Age in 2024: 31
Machado likely cemented his status as a future Hall of Famer in 2022, when he finished as the National League MVP runner-up. It's possible that Machado is content in San Diego and opts into the final five years and $150 million on his contract next offseason. But if he puts together another All-Star caliber season in 2023, Machado could opt out and target a longer deal.
4. Aaron Nola: RHP
Aaron Nola can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(Casey Sykes/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA, 2.58 FIP and 6.3 WAR across 205 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 31
Nola rebounded from a disappointing 2021 season to post a 6.3 WAR in 2022, which FanGraphs says was the top mark among all qualified starting pitchers. Since the start of the 2018 season, Nola leads all pitchers with 871 2/3 innings pitched. The former first-round pick has never been reliant on overpowering hitters, so he should age in a Zack Greinke-esque manner.
5. Julio Urías: LHP
Julio Urias can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(John McCoy/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: 17-7 with a 2.16 ERA, 3.71 FIP and 3.2 WAR across 175 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 27
Urías' traditional numbers may have painted a better picture of his 2022 season than more advanced statistics, but there's no question he's developed into one of the best lefties in the game. Urías already has extended postseason experience and two top 10 NL Cy Young finishes on his resume, so we'll see whether or not the Los Angeles Dodgers even allow him to reach free agency.
6. Lucas Giolito: RHP
Lucas Giolito can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: 11-9 with a 4.90 ERA, 4.06 FIP and 1.8 WAR across 161 2/3 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 29
Giolito had a disappointing 2022 season, but between 2019 and 2021, he finished seventh in WAR among all pitchers, per FanGraphs. We expect a bounce-back season from Giolito in 2023, which will make him a coveted arm next winter given that he's on the right side of 30.
7. Yu Darvish: RHP
Yu Darvish can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA, 3.31 FIP and 4.2 WAR across 194 2/3 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 37
The six-year/$126 million deal that Darvish initially signed with the Chicago Cubs looked like a disaster after the first two seasons. Since the 2020 season, though, Darvish has pitched at such a high level that the $19 million that he's set to make in 2023 feels like a bargain. As Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander have shown over the last two winters, if you're still pitching at a high level, teams will pay you well into your 30s, and perhaps beyond.
8. Miles Mikolas: RHP
Miles Mikolas can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: 12-13 with a 3.29 ERA, 3.87 FIP and 2.8 WAR across 202 1/3 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 35
If Jack Flaherty stays healthy and rediscovers the ace form that he showed between 2018 and 2019, he'll be the most coveted St. Louis Cardinals free agent arm. Don't sleep on Mikolas, though -- he's a quality arm that's almost always going to approach or surpass 200 innings a season.
9. Blake Snell: LHP
Blake Snell can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA, 2.80 FIP and 3.7 WAR across 128 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 31
Snell struggled in his first season in San Diego, but the former AL Cy Young Award winner bounced back nicely in 2022. While he's not necessarily a workhorse, contenders will be intrigued by Snell as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter -- and a left-handed one at that -- if he reaches the open market next winter.
10. Luis Severino: RHP
Luis Severino can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
(Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
2022 Stats: 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA, 3.70 FIP and 1.4 WAR across 102 innings pitched
Age in 2024: 30
Severino was an All-Star in both 2017 and 2018, before Tommy John surgery cost him the better part of the next three seasons. Even in 2022, Severino only made 19 starts, but he had a generally strong showing in his most extended action in years. If he's able to throw 170+ innings in 2023, he will set himself up well for free agency.
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