Ahead of the MLB Winter Meetings, here are predictions on where the top 25 remaining free agents will sign and for how much.
1. Aaron Judge, RF
Aaron Judge will be one of the top MLB free agents this offseason.(Adam Hunger/Getty Images)2022 Stats: .311/.425/.686 with 62 home runs, 131 RBIs, 111 walks, 1.111 OPS and an 11.4 WAR
Age in 2023: 31
Contract Prediction: Eight Years/$330.5 Million With New York Yankees
What's there to say? Judge is coming off of the greatest contract year in MLB history, which netted him the American League MVP. While the seven-year/$213.5 million offer that Judge declined before the season may have looked like a fair offer at the time, the AL single-season Home Run King is certain to top it now. It's still hard to imagine him leaving the Yankees, but the San Francisco Giants do seem to be mounting a serious push for the four-time All-Star.
Actual Deal: Nine Years/$360 Million With Yankees
2. Trea Turner, SS
Trea Turner will be one of the top MLB free agents this offseason.(Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)2022 Stats: .298/.343/.466 with 21 home runs, 100 RBIs, 45 walks, .809 OPS and a 6.3 WAR
Age in 2023: 30
Contract Projection: Eight Years/$264 Million With Philadelphia Phillies
Turner was once one of the best-kept secrets in baseball, but he's been such an excellent all-around player since 2020 that he will be as coveted as anyone in this year's class. Over the last three seasons, Turner has slashed .316/.364/.514 with 61 home runs, 218 RBIs, 71 stolen bases and an .809 OPS. According to FanGraphs, Turner's 15.9 WAR since the start of 2020 is tied with José Ramírez for the second best mark among all position players, with only Judge topping him. In need of a middle infielder that can hit at the top of their order, the defending National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies appear to be the favorites for Turner.
Actual Deal: 11 Years/$300 Million With Phillies
3. Carlos Correa, SS
Carlos Correa will be one of the top MLB free agents this offseason.(David Berding/Getty Images)2022 Stats: .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs, 64 RBIs, 61 walks, .834 OPS and a 4.4 WAR
Age in 2023: 28
Contract Prediction: Nine Years/$295 Million With Chicago Cubs
Correa is back on the free-agent market after opting out of the final two years of a three-year/$105.3 million deal with the Minnesota Twins. The Detroit Tigers offered Correa a 10-year/$275 million contract early in free agency last winter, which he failed to jump at. If a similar offer presents itself this offseason, will the former No. 1 overall pick take it?
Actual Deal: 6 Years/$200 Million With Twins After Physical Concerns Killed Contracts With The San Francisco Giants And New York Mets
4. Xander Bogaerts, SS
Xander Bogaerts will be one of the top MLB free agents this offseason.(Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)2022 Stats: .307/.377/.456 with 15 home runs, 73 RBIs, 57 walks, .833 OPS and a 6.1 WAR
Age in 2023: 30
Contract Prediction: Seven Years/$203 Million With Los Angeles Dodgers
Bogaerts opted out of the final three years of a six-year/$120 million extension with the Boston Red Sox, and figures to easily top his previous deal this offseason. Not only is Bogaerts one of the best hitters in the sport, but he's coming off of the best defensive season of his career, having posted four defensive runs saved and five outs above average. As much as it wouldn't make sense for the Red Sox to let Bogaerts walk, things appear to be trending that way.
Actual Deal: 11 years/$280 Million With San Diego Padres
5. Justin Verlander, RHP
Justin Verlander will be one of the top MLB free agents this offseason.(Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)2022 Stats: 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA, 2.49 FIP and 6.1 WAR across 175 innings
Age in 2023: 40
Contract Prediction: Two Years/$88 Million With Los Angeles Dodgers
One of the greatest right-handed pitchers in MLB history, Verlander is now a two-time World Series Champion and a three-time American League Cy Young Award winner. There's always a risk of a player hitting a wall this late in their career, but there figures to be multiple suitors willing to guarantee the future Hall of Famer at least two years this winter.
Actual Deal: Two Years/$86.66 Million With New York Mets
6. Jacob deGrom, RHP
Jacob deGrom will be one of the top MLB free agents this offseason.(Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)2022 Stats: 5-4 with a 3.08 ERA, 2.13 FIP and 2.2 WAR across 64 1/3 innings
Age in 2023: 35
Contract Prediction: Three Years/$133 Million With New York Mets
When he's on the mound, deGrom has as good of an arsenal as any pitcher to ever play baseball. But it's fair to point out that the two-time National League Cy Young Award winner has only made 26 total starts over the past two seasons. Granted, he has a minuscule 1.90 ERA in those 26 starts. But when you're talking about the type of money deGrom is going to command, availability is unquestionably part of the equation.
Actual Deal: Five Years/$185 Million With Texas Rangers
7. Carlos Rodón, LHP
Carlos Rodon will be one of the top MLB free agents this offseason.(Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)2022 Stats: 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA, 2.25 FIP and 6.2 WAR across 178 innings
Age in 2023: 30
Contract Prediction: Five Years/135 Million With Texas Rangers
Following a tremendous 2021 season with the Chicago White Sox, Rodón had a disappointing trip into free agency last winter, ultimately settling for a two-year/$44 million contract with the San Francisco Giants. Rodón opted out of that contract after one season because he was so excellent that even though he's saddled with a qualifying offer, he won't have any issues getting a long-term deal this time around. Over the last two seasons, the only pitchers to top Rodón's 11.1 WAR are Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler.
Actual Deal: Six Years/$162 Million With New York Yankees
8. Dansby Swanson, SS
Dansby Swanson will be one of the top MLB free agents this offseason.(Steph Chambers/Getty Images)2022 Stats: .277/.329/.447 with 25 home runs, 96 RBIs, 49 walks, .776 OPS and a 6.4 WAR
Age in 2023: 29
Contract Prediction: Seven Years/$170 Million With San Francisco Giants
Swanson went from being a top-half-of-the-league shortstop to a star in 2022. Not only did the former No. 1 overall pick have the best offensive season of his career, but he posted nine defensive runs saved and 20 outs above average, en route to winning a Gold Glove Award. If Swanson isn't willing to take a hometown discount to stay with the Atlanta Braves, he'll have plenty of other interested teams.
Actual Deal: Seven Years/$177 Million With Chicago Cubs
9. Brandon Nimmo, CF
Brandon Nimmo will be one of the top MLB free agents this offseason.(Wendell Cruz/USA Today)2022 Stats: .274/.367/.433 with 16 home runs, 64 RBIs, 71 walks, .800 OPS and 5.4 WAR
Age in 2023: 30
Contract Prediction: Six Years/$130 Million With Colorado Rockies
In a sport with so few quality center fielders, Nimmo should command a major contract this winter, whether it's from the New York Mets or another party. He's an on-base machine that can hit at the top of your order, and is seen by most as being an above-average fielder at a crucial position. We did a deep dive on his potential landing spots earlier this week.
Actual Deal: Eight Years/$162 Million With New York Mets
10. Willson Contreras, C
Willson Contreras will be one of the top MLB free agents this offseason.(Norm Hall/Getty Images)2022 Stats: .243/.349/.466 with 22 home runs, 55 RBIs, 45 walks, .815 OPS and 3.3 WAR
Age in 2023: 31
Contract Prediction: Four Years/$80 Million With St. Louis Cardinals
Plenty of teams would love to have Contreras, who is one of the best hitting catchers in the sport. With that said, he'll be 31 next season and already isn't a great receiver. As the three-time All-Star looks for a major payday, his market may be more limited than some are projecting.
Actual Deal: Five Years/87.5 Million With Cardinals
11. Chris Bassitt, RHP
Where will Chris Bassitt sign in free agency?(Adam Hunger/Getty Images)2022 Stats: 15-9 with a 3.42 ERA, 3.66 FIP and 2.7 WAR across 181 2/3 innings
Age in 2023: 34
Contract Prediction: Three Years/$57 Million With New York Mets
Bassitt perhaps isn't a top-of-the-rotation starter, but he threw a career-high 181 2/3 innings with the Mets in 2022 and looked like a legitimate No. 3 starter. Bassitt won't be a sexy signing, but teams will pay for reliable rotation arms, which he's been over the past four seasons.
Actual Deal: Three Years/$63 Million With Toronto Blue Jays
12. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B
Where will Cody Bellinger land in free agency?(Christian Petersen/Getty Images)2022 Stats: .210/.265/.389 with 19 home runs, 68 RBIs, 38 walks, .654 OPS and a 1.7 WAR
Age in 2023: 27
Contract Predictions: One Year/$18 Million With Toronto Blue Jays
Over the last three seasons, Bellinger has slashed just .203/.272/.376, which led to his non-tender in November. But he's still only 27 years old, has tremendous positional flexibility and only appears to be looking for a one-year, prove-it deal. There will be more than a couple teams willing to take a flier on the former National League Rookie of the Year and MVP, even if it will cost them quite a bit in 2023.
Actual Deal: One Year/$17.5 Million With Chicago Cubs
13. Kodai Senga, RHP
Where will Kodai Senga sign in free agency?(Matt Roberts/Getty Images)2022 Stats: 11-6 with a 1.94 ERA across 144 innings in Japan's NPB
Age in 2023: 30
Contract Prediction: Four Years/$69 Million With San Diego Padres
Senga went 11-6 with a 1.94 ERA this past season for the Fukoka Softbank Hawks in Japan. His "Ghost Fork" pitch has already made him a darling of Pitching Ninja, and he's seen a rather drastic increase in his fastball velocity in recent years. As Jon Heyman of The New York Post noted, Senga's mentor is Yu Darvish, and we're predicting that he'll be his teammate next year in San Diego.
Actual Deal: Five Years/$75 Million With New York Mets
14. Jameson Taillon, RHP
Where will Jameson Taillon sign in free agency?(Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)2022 Stats: 14-5 with a 3.91 ERA, 3.94 FIP and 2.3 WAR across 177 1/3 innings
Age in 2023: 31
Contract Prediction: Four Years/$60 Million With Minnesota Twins
Taillson disappointed in 2021 -- both his first season with the Yankees and returning from Tommy John surgery -- posting a 4.30 ERA and 4.43 FIP across 144 1/3 innings. However, the former No. 2 overall pick set himself up well for free agency by bouncing back in 2022, finishing his second season in pinstripes with a 3.91 ERA and 3.94 FIP across 177 1/3 innings. He's younger than Bassitt, which may mean a longer commitment, but he'll probably sign for a lower average annual value. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com says that the expectation is that he'll get more money than Jon Gray did when he signed a four-year/$56 million deal with the Texas Rangers last offseason.
Actual Deal: Four Years/$68 Million With Chicago Cubs
15. Josh Bell, 1B/LF
Where will Josh Bell sign in free agency?(Denis Poroy/Getty Images)2022 Stats: .266/.362/.422 with 17 home runs, 71 RBIs, 81 walks, .784 OPS and 2.0 WAR
Age in 2023: 30
Contract Prediction: Three Years/$47 Million With Chicago Cubs
Bell was excellent in 103 games for the Washington Nationals this past season, slashing .301/.384/.493 with an .877 OPS. The switch-hitting first baseman struggled after being traded to the Padres, posting just a .192/.316/.271 slash line with a miserable .587 OPS in 53 games. For those that missed out on José Abreu, Bell could be a younger and cheaper alternative.
Actual Deal: Two Years/$33 Million With Cleveland Guardians
16. Taijuan Walker, RHP
Where will Taijuan Walker sign in free agency?(Adam Hunger/Getty Images)2022 Stats: 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA, 3.65 FIP and 2.5 WAR across 157 1/3 innings
Age in 2023: 30
Contract Prediction: Three Years/$50 Million With $18 Million Club Option For 2026 With St. Louis Cardinals
Walker was an All-Star in 2021, but had a disastrous second half, going 0-8 with a 7.13 ERA in 13 starts after the midsummer classic. Walker returned in 2022 with the best season of his career, going 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA, 3.65 FIP and 2.5 WAR across 157 1/3 innings. He probably has a higher ceiling than some of the pitchers above him on this list, but that comes with a lower floor and injury history. Still, the former first-round pick should have a slew of suitors to pick from.
Actual Deal: Four Years/$72 Million With Philadelphia Phillies
17. Andrew Benintendi, LF
Where will Andrew Benintendi land in free agency?(Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)2022 Stats: .304/.373/.399 with five home runs, 51 RBIs, 52 walks, .772 OPS and 2.8 WAR
Age in 2023: 28
Contract Prediction: Three Years/$45 Million With $15 Million Club Option For 2026 With Minnesota Twins
Benintendi seemed destined to be a superstar early in his career with the Boston Red Sox, but hasn't turned out to be that player. Still, he was a very productive hitter in a 2022 season that he split between the Kansas City Royals and Yankees. He only homered five times in 461 at-bats, but consistently put the ball in play and drew walks. He should get a multi-year deal this offseason, at the very least.
Actual Deal: Five Years/$75 Million With Chicago White Sox
18. Masataka Yoshida, LF/RF
Where will Masataka Yoshida sign in free agency?(Kiyoshi Ota/Getty Images)2022 Stats: .335/.447/.561 with 21 home runs, 88 RBIs, 80 walks and a 1.008 OPS in Japan's NPB
Age in 2023: 29
Contract Prediction: Four Years/$60 Million With New York Yankees
Yoshida is an on-base machine, walking 80 times and posting an OPS north of 1.000 playing for the Orix Buffaloes in Japan this past season. Any team that signs Yoshida will have to pay a posting fee, but he has his fair share of proponents in the sport. If he ends up being a leadoff hitter in the majors, this projected contract will look very team-friendly.
Actual Deal: Five Years/$90 Million With Boston Red Sox
19. Michael Conforto, RF/LF
Where will Michael Conforto sign in free agency?(Mike Stobe/Getty Images)2022 Stats: Did Not Play
Age in 2023: 30
Contract Prediction: One Year/$15 Million With Seattle Mariners
There's some risk in signing Conforto, but he may very well prove to be one of the best pickups of the offseason. Conforto struggled in 2021, before making the ill-fated decision to decline the qualifying offer from the Mets. Right shoulder surgery ultimately prevented Conforto from signing with a team this past season. Still, he won't turn 30 until March, is a former All-Star and posted an .856 OPS between 2017 and 2019. He's definitely worth a roll of the dice on a one-year deal.
Actual Deal: Two Years/$36 Million With San Francisco Giants
20. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
Where will Nathan Eovaldi sign in free agency?(Elsa/Getty Images)2022 Stats: 6-3 with a 3.87 ERA, 4.30 FIP and 1.0 WAR across 109 1/3 innings
Age in 2023: 33
Contract Prediction: Two Years/$34 Million With Tampa Bay Rays
Had Eovaldi become a free agent after the 2021 season -- when he finished fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting -- he would have been in the top 10 free agents, if not higher. Throughout his career, though, he's struggled to consistently stay healthy. At his best, he pitches like a front-line starter and has also flashed the ability to pitch out of the bullpen in the postseason. But he's not for the risk averse. Charlie Morton had some similar qualities when he became a free agent after the 2018 season, ultimately landing a two-year/$30 million deal with the Rays ahead of his age-35 season.
Actual Deal: Two Years/$34 Million With Texas Rangers
21. Zach Eflin, RHP
Where will Zach Eflin sign in free agency?(Elsa/Getty Images)2022 Stats: 3-5 with a 4.04 ERA, 3.56 FIP and 1.4 WAR across 75 2/3 innings pitched
Age in 2023: 29
Contract Prediction: Two Years/$22 Million With Los Angeles Dodgers
If you're looking for a pitcher that's going to make 33 starts a season, Eflin isn't your guy. Knee injuries have plagued him for much of his career, and that's unlikely to change moving forward. With that said, Eflin is an excellent clubhouse presence that has had stretches of pitching like a legitimate No. 3 starter in his career. For a team willing to accept that he'll probably only make 20-25 starts a season, Eflin could be a nice pickup. He pitched out of the bullpen for the Phillies in their postseason run, but told me after the World Series that he still wants to start moving forward. Given that he declined his half of a $15 million mutual option for 2023, it's fair to believe he'll get multiple years this winter.
Actual Deal: Three Years/$40 Million With Tampa Bay Rays
22. José Quintana, LHP
Where will Jose Quintana sign in free agency?(Joe Sargent/Getty Images)2022 Stats: 6-7 with a 2.93 ERA, 2.99 FIP and 4.0 WAR across 165 2/3 innings
Age in 2023: 34
Contract Prediction: Two Years/$26 Million With Philadelphia Phillies
Quintana is coming off of his best season since he was an All-Star for the Chicago White Sox back in 2016. He may not duplicate the numbers he put up in 2022, but he's a pretty safe bet to throw 160+ innings per season, making him an ideal fit for a team looking for a No. 4 starter this offseason.
Actual Deal: Two Years/$26 Million With New York Mets
23. Kenley Jansen, Relief Pitcher
Where will Kenley Jansen land in free agency?(Patrick Smith/Getty Images)2022 Stats: 41 saves in 48 attempts, 3.38 ERA, 3.21 FIP and 1.1 WAR in 65 games
Age in 2023: 35
Contract Prediction: One Year/$15 Million With San Francisco Giants
Jansen may no longer be at the height of his powers anymore, but he still led the senior circuit with 41 saves in 2022. Whether he has enough gas left in the tank to be your closer from Opening Day to Game 7 of the World Series is a fair question to ask, but he's eighth in MLB history with 391 career saves. You could do a lot worse than opening the season with him as your primary ninth-inning guy.
Actual Deal: Two Years/$32 Million With Boston Red Sox
24. J.D. Martinez, DH/LF
Where will J.D. Martinez land in free agency?(Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)2022 Stats: .274/.341/.448 with 16 home runs, 62 RBIs, 52 walks, .790 OPS and 1.0 WAR
Age in 2023: 35
Contract Prediction: One Year/$17 Million With Baltimore Orioles
Martinez made his fifth All-Star Game appearance in 2022, but slashed just .233/.301/.400 with a .701 OPS after the midsummer classic. They say there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal, and perhaps that's true. But if Martinez doesn't bounce back to some degree at the plate in 2023, he won't bring much value given that he's going to be a DH the overwhelming majority of the time. We're not going to bet against a bounce-back season, though.
Actual Deal: One Year/$10 Million With Los Angeles Dodgers
25. Jean Segura, 2B
Where will Jean Segura sign in free agency?(Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)2022 Stats: .277/.336/.387 with 10 home runs, 33 RBIs, 25 walks, .723 OPS and a 1.7 WAR
Age in 2023: 33
Contract Prediction: Two Years/$24 Million With Chicago White Sox
Segura played in just 98 games after fracturing his right index finger in late May, but he remained very productive both at the plate and in the field. Segura has excellent bat-to-ball skills, and an elite throwing arm at second base. While his days at shortstop are almost certainly over, he could probably play third base on a regular basis given his arm strength. He told me before the World Series that he was hopeful to remain with the Phillies for the remainder of his career, but that doesn't seem especially likely.
Actual Deal: Two Years/$17 Million With Miami Marlins
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