NFL Week 14 is here, and as always, the betting public has their favorites. With insights from BetMGM’s John Ewing, we’re breaking down the ticket and handle percentages for three marquee matchups. Find out where the money is flowing, which sides the public is backing, and whether sharp bettors are aligned—or fading the hype.
Bills (10-2) -3.5 at Rams (6-6)
I know, you are super shocked we are starting this off with the 10-2 Buffalo Bills taking on the 6-6 Los Angeles Rams. More likely though, you probably aren’t. The Bills have been extremely public pretty much every single week since very early in the season, and they will continue to be until they lose a football game. Could this week finally be the loss that sets them back?
Our friend John Ewing over at BetMGM was kind enough to share his betting data with us, which tells us where the tickets and money are going right now on every game this weekend. With this, we can find where the general public is on every game, as well as how much of the handle along with it.
Buffalo is the most popular side of the weekend right now, receiving a whopping 70% of the tickets and 72% of the handle on the spread. People are lining up to lay more than a field goal with Josh Allen and company on the road. Will that turn out well for them? I know I already bet the Rams at +4.5, and the line has since come down.
Bears (4-8) +4 at 49ers (5-7)
How often is it that a team that has lost six straight games is one of the most bet on sides of the week? Probably extremely rare, but that is the case this week with the Chicago Bears. They just fired head coach Matt Eberflus, who certainly was terrible and needed to be ousted, but I didn’t think it would make everyone like them all of the sudden.
Right now over at BetMGM, a huge 80% of tickets and 57% of the handle is on Chicago to cover the spread. I know San Francisco has lost three straight games and has looked awful in the process, but I still find it hilarious to think that my Bears are so popular.
This is a prime bounce back spot for the 49ers, but will they do that? They have injuries all over their roster, and we will have to see how Brock Purdy plays without all of that talent. I’ll also be very interested to see how the Bears play in their first game without Eberflus in charge. Will Williams still have the success he has been having when OC Thomas Brown is now the head coach? You would think so, since Brown is still apparently calling the plays, but it will be interesting. Plus, will the Chicago defense fall off without Eberflus calling the plays?
Chargers (8-4) +4 at Chiefs (11-1)
Another underdog as a very public side in Week 13, and of all teams, it is going against the Chiefs! I think generally the public believes that Kansas City has gotten extremely lucky this season to be 11-1, and while they are probably right about that, it is hard to bet against a team that gets all the calls to go their way. After all, if the Chiefs do get favor from the league and refs, why would you want to bet against them?
Over at BetMGM, 55% of the tickets are backing Los Angeles, but just 21% of the cash is on that side. That means that all those tickets on the Chargers aren’t worth a whole lot, while the 45% of tickets on Kansas City are worth a whole lot more.
Personally, I don’t want to lay more than a field goal with the Chiefs either. However, I think the Chiefs are probably going to find a way to win this game just like they have the rest of their contests. Not only do they get an assist from the league, but they are also coached really well and know how to handle late game clutch situations. I think K.C. ML is the best wager here, pairing it with something else in a two team parlay might be the play.
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