NFL Week 9 offers a fresh slate of player prop opportunities, with several matchups that present great value in receiving, passing, and rushing props. This week, I’m backing Dolphins RB De’Von Achane, Broncos QB Bo Nix, Saints RB Alvin Kamara, and Colts WR Josh Downs in favorable matchups. Read on for the stats, trends, and insights that make each of these prop bets a strong play, including betting splits, player performance analysis and unique game conditions that can maximize their output. So far this season, I’ve gone 46-22 (67.7%, +16.8 units) on NFL player prop picks right here in this article, so let’s keep the momentum rolling.
Dolphins RB De’Von Achane Over 35.5 Receiving Yards vs. Bills (-110, BetMGM)
No team in the NFL has allowed more receiving yards per game to running backs than the Bills, at 54.25 per contest. Not only that, but they’ve allowed the most receptions (6.38) and targets (8.25) to the running back position, thus vaulting Achane into an incredible spot to produce in a game with a high total hovering around 50. With Tua Tagovailoa back under center, Achane is in a prime spot to continue his dominance as a pass-catcher.
In Tagovailoa’s three starts, Achane has done the following as a receiver: seven catches on seven targets for 76 yards vs. the Jaguars (Week 1), seven catches on seven targets for 69 yards and a touchdown vs. this Bills team (Week 2) and six catches on eight targets for 50 yards and a touchdown vs. the Cardinals (Week 8). Those early-season performances did come without teammate Raheem Mostert and even though Mostert is now healthy, Achane’s role as a playmaker is still secure and I love him again this week. He’s the type of guy who could surpass this mark with one catch if he gets the necessary blocking.
Broncos QB Bo Nix Over 212.5 Passing Yards vs. Ravens (-115, BetRivers)
This Ravens secondary is a complete mess. They’ve gotten shredded all season long and enter this game ranked dead last in passing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks: 311.6 per game. That’s horrendous. Nix has gone over this number in five of his eight starts and is coming off the best passing performance of his rookie campaign: 28-for-37 for 284 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Panthers.
As 9.5-point underdogs, sportsbooks project Denver to be playing from behind despite both teams possessing identical 5-3 records. Baltimore has allowed seven of eight starting quarterbacks to go over 212.5 passing yards (Josh Allen was the only one to fall short) and all of those guys went over 268.5, including four over 300 yards. This, in my opinion, is a no-brainer.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara Over 68.5 Rushing Yards vs. Panthers (-125, DraftKings)
The Saints are favored by right around a touchdown on the road against the Panthers this week and this is setting up for a huge Kamara game. Backup running backs Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams will be out, so we should see a huge snap count for Kamara, who should also benefit from the return of quarterback Derek Carr, who will need to be respected as a passer.
Box score watchers might be overly concerned about the fact that Kamara has fallen short of this mark in four consecutive games, but he was essentially game-scripted out of the 13, 24, 23 and 18-point losses. With Bryce Young under center, this Carolina offense likely won’t have the ball long or make anything happen, so there should be ample opportunities to thrive. Opposing running backs have averaged 128.5 rushing yards per game against the Panthers, 2nd-most in the NFL. Taysom Hill might vulture a touchdown from him this week, but I love going over Kamara's rushing yards in what is a must-win game for New Orleans.
Colts WR Josh Downs Over 60.5 Receiving Yards vs. Vikings (-114, FanDuel)
With Joe Flacco under center, Downs ascends from a solid option to an elite option this week. Not only will the matchup against the Vikings be incredible since Minnesota has allowed 16.9 receptions (2nd-most), on 26.3 targets (2nd-most) for 204.9 yards (2nd-most) to opposing wide receivers, but Downs has averaged eight catches on 10 targets for 72 yards per game the three times Flacco has started this year (eight catches on nine targets for 82 yards and a touchdown, nine catches on 12 targets for 69 yards and seven catches on nine targets for 66 yards and a touchdown).
Attracting 21.1% of the targets with Anthony Richardson under center, Downs has been Flacco’s favorite receiver, as his elite 33.3% target share indicates. This will likely be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair (I like the Colts +5.5 and over 46.5 as well) and the quality of targets Downs is going to get with the veteran under center will be light years better than from Richardson.
The way to beat this Vikings defense is with quick passes; Minnesota blitzes 41.4% of the time. That is perfect for Downs, who will primarily line up in the slot, where the Vikings have had a lot of trouble due to their aggressive strategy of trying to force the quarterback into bad throws. Richardson would have probably fallen for it, but Flacco’s experience will bode well for Indy’s offense and Downs in particular this week and beyond. I suspect this will be the last time we see his receiving yards prop this low as long as Flacco is starting.
That's it for this week. Thanks for reading and best of luck on all your Week 9 bets!
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