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For the third time in the last four seasons, the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat will meet in the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston defeated Miami in seven games a season ago, while the Heat bested the Celtics in the 2020 bubble.
Miami has been one of the bigger surprises this postseason. After falling to the Atlanta Hawks in the 7 vs. 8 play-in game, the Heat went on to defeat the Chicago Bulls and clinch the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.
As the eight-seed, the Heat defeated the Milwaukee Bucks in five games in the first round, then went on to beat the New York Knicks in six games, as they became just the second eighth seed to reach the Conference Finals in NBA history. The only other team to do it was the Knicks, who did it in 1999, which was a shortened 50-game season due to a lockout.
Boston and Miami split their season series, with each team winning two games. The Heat won the last two meetings.
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With Game 1 set for Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. at TD Garden, here are five initial thoughts on the Celtics-Heat Eastern Conference Finals:
Miami’s health
Miami dealt with numerous injuries throughout their postseason run a season ago and they will be dealing with a similar obstacle this postseason. The Heat lost Victor Oladipo for the season earlier in the playoffs, and they also lost Tyler Herro to a broken hand in Game 1 of the first round. Herro hasn't played since, but he was given an initial timetable of 4-6 weeks, meaning he could return at some point during this series.
Herro, who won the Sixth Man of the Year Award a season ago, started all 67 games he appeared in this season for Miami. The 23-year-old guard averaged 20.1 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists, while shooting 37.8% from three and 43.9% from the field.
Oladipo had emerged as a nice piece off the bench for Miami this season. Appearing in 42 games, the nine-year vet averaged 10.7 points and 3.5 assists off the bench.
Herro averaged the third-most points per game on the Heat this season, with Oladipo averaging the sixth-most. This is a big deal because Miami struggled to score points this season. The Heat averaged just 109.5 points per game this regular season, which ranked last in the NBA. Herro returning would obviously be a big boost.
Take care of the ball
It will be especially important for Boston to take care of the basketball against this Heat team. The Heat forced the third-most turnovers per game in the NBA this season, with opponents turning the ball over 15.7 times per game against them, which Miami converted to 18.2 points off turnovers per game.
Miami has carried that into the postseason with opponents averaging 14.3 turnovers per game, resulting in 20.4 points per game for the Heat.
In the Celtics’ four games against Miami this season, they turned the ball over a total of 75 times, for an average of 18.8 per game. One of those meetings with the Heat included a 20-turnover showing on Dec. 2, which is Boston’s worst mark of the season.
Slowing down Jimmy Butler
Jimmy Butler has been on an absolute tear this postseason. The Heat star is averaging 31.1 points per game, 6.6 rebounds and 5.4 assists. Boston has seen some tough guards this postseason from Trae Young to James Harden, but Butler will be their most difficult challenge. Butler is by far the best two-way guard Boston has seen this postseason, and he can hurt you in so many different ways.
It will be interesting to see how Boston goes about defending Butler. In the Philadelphia series, Joe Mazzulla turned back to the double-big lineup with Robert Williams and Al Horford in Games 6 and 7, which was very effective for a team like the 76ers, but that might not be the case against this Miami team.
With Miami’s offense running predominantly through Butler and their guards, Boston is going to want to have Derrick White on the floor and Marcus Smart on the floor. White, who was named to the 2022-23 NBA All-Defensive Second Team, saw a decrease in minutes when Boston turned back to the double-big. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Mazzulla turned back to the starting lineup we saw for the first 11 games this postseason, consisting of Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford.
Another good defense
Coming off a series with the 76ers, who were top 10 in terms of defensive rating, Boston is faced with another top 10 defense in the Heat. Miami held their opponents to just 109.8 points per game this season, which is second-fewest in the NBA.
Though Miami is not quite as good as Philadelphia defensively, they can still cause Boston some problems. Led by Butler, Bam Adebayo and Gabe Vincent, Miami can defend both the perimeter and the interior.
Miami is also very good at slowing down the fast break, which is where Boston has found some success this postseason.
Have to be ready to go
While this certainly isn’t the same Miami team that was the one seed in the Eastern Conference last season, finishing with a 53-29 record, they are far from your traditional eight seed. Despite where they finished in the seeding, this is a talented team. After all, they have suffered the fewest losses this postseason.
It’s been a topic all postseason for the Celtics -- playing with focus and intensity -- and that’s something they can’t afford to get away from against this Heat team. With future Hall of Fame coach Erik Spoelstra on the opposing bench, he will expose Boston’s flaws if they lose focus.
The Celtics are clearly the better team in this series and they have to play like it. Oftentimes this season, it feels like Boston has played down to their competition, and that’s something they can’t do on this stage against this team.
Prediction: Celtics in six games
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