Bradfo: The shocking reality for MLB rookies
Living life as a rookie - or even second-year player - in Major League Baseball is a complicated thing these days.
Start with the finalists from last season's Rookie of the Year voting. If there was ever an example of this game not being a straight line to success, it is brought to you by this group:
National League: 1. Corbin Carroll (currently hitting .193 with a .590 OPS; 2. Kodai Senga (hasn't pitched due to injury); 3. James Outman (currently hitting .151 with a .530 OPS); 4. Nolan Jones (currently hitting .170 with a .520 OPS).
American League: 1. Gunner Henderson (hitting .178 with a .622 in May); 2. Tanner Bibee (currently has a 4.34 ERA); 3. Triston Casas (on the 60-day disabled list); 4. Josh Jung (wrist surgery after 4 games).
The lesson is that things can change fast and quick judgments for young players are ill-advised. Heck, the unanimous choice for AL Rookie of the Year last season, Henderson, was hitting .184 with a .691 OPS exactly one year ago.
Does anyone think that the game's top prospect, Jackson Holliday, will be defined by going 2-for-34 in his first big league go-round? Or that his recent struggles upon returning to Triple-A (.159 over the past 10 games) won't turn?
So when we surface Wilyer Abreu's name as a possible Rookie of the Year candidate there is that reality waiting around the corner that this conversation might look completely different in a few months. Still, it's worth cranking up the conversation.
(Abreu went 0-for-5 in the Red Sox' series finale loss to the Rays. For more on that 7-5 Sox defeat, click here.)
Among qualified rookie position players, Abreu sits with the third-best OPS (.831), trailing Joey Ortiz (Milwaukee) and Wenceel Perez (Detroit). His four home runs are third among AL rookies behind Colton Cowser's six and Evan Carter's five.
Abreu has the second-most hits of any American League rookie with 32, just one behind the Angels' Nolan Schanuel.
Right now, FanDuel's American League Rookie of the Year odds put him behind current favorite Mason Miller, along with Cowser and then Evan Carter. The current case for Abreu among that group is that Miller's position and team (reliever for the A's), Cowser's recent downturn (.143 batting average, .462 OPS in May) and Carter's current numbers (.216 BA, .719 OPS) would work in the Red Sox' outfielder's favor.
But if you want an idea of how the Rookie of the Year buzz can change just understand the player FanDuel has as the next option after Abreu: Junior Caminero, the Tampa Bay prospect who hasn't even reached the majors.
When it comes to Abreu, there is also the question of how he will be viewed. The outfielder hasn't quite yet established himself as an everyday option, with manager Alex Cora mostly playing him against right-handed pitching.
Abreu - who has made just two starts against left-handers - has seen just 20 plate appearances vs. southpaws, going 3-for-18 with two walks.
"Where we were in the season and the approach, I think we let him play,” Cora said. “We let him play. It’s a process, man. It’s not that easy, the lefties that we face."
The positive way to look at that dynamic is what happened with Casas a year ago, with the first baseman going just 4-for-23 against lefties through May 17. The good news was that in the second half of the 2023 season the first baseman went on to compile a .920 OPS in 44 plate appearances vs. left-handers on the way to his third-place Rookie of the Year finish.
There are no easy, or definitive, answers when it comes to judging these young players. There is more information from the opposition to pick apart their weaknesses, and the pressures that come with being a major leaguer is more immediate than ever.
But it's always fun to have the conversation. And, right now, Abreu is in it.