The Bruins’ second-round series against the Islanders begins Saturday night at TD Garden in front of a nearly full house.
WEEI’s Skate Podcast crew of Brian DeFelice, Bridgette Proulx and Scott McLaughlin breaks down how each team can win this series, picks their X-factors, and then predicts the outcome. You can also listen to the podcast version of our series preview here:
1. If the Bruins win the series, the biggest reason will be…
DeFelice: Special teams. Since both teams will be fighting for every bit of offense, especially at even strength, special teams may be the difference between winning and losing. Overall the Bruins have more speed and skill than the Islanders, but because the Isles are so effective at taking away time and space five-on-five, the Bruins will really need to capitalize on the man advantage. The new-look top power-play unit of Charlie McAvoy and David Krejci playing alongside Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak has been red-hot since being put together late in Game 3 against Washington and will look to exploit the Islanders when given the chance. Ultimately, the Bruins have a decisive edge over the Islanders in both special teams categories and that could be the difference in the series.
Proulx: This is really simple. All the Bruins need to do is hold the course on special teams and continue to get the type of production they did in Round 1 from their veteran players. The Bruins’ top line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak combined for 50% of the Bruins’ Round 1 goals (eight of 16 goals). It’s completely possible for them to continue scoring at that rate and in pivotal moments of the series. If the Bruins can replicate their first-round success on the power play and penalty kill and use their skill to overpower the Islanders defense, they should have no problem beating the Islanders this series.
McLaughlin: Offense. Both teams are very good defensively. Both teams have very good goalies. But when it comes to offense, the post-trade deadline Bruins have been much better than the post-deadline Islanders. The Bruins ranked sixth in the NHL in total offense from April 12 on (3.41 goals per game) and fifth in five-on-five offense (3.13 goals per 60). The Islanders were 29th (2.21) and 30th (1.76), respectively. The addition of Taylor Hall gave the Bruins arguably the best top six in the NHL, while the loss of captain Anders Lee proved difficult for New York to overcome. The Islanders found offense in the first round, but they were facing Tristan Jarry, who was atrocious. According to MoneyPuck, Jarry gave up eight more goals than expected in the first round, while Tuukka Rask saved four goals above expected against Washington. That’s a massive difference in the quality of goaltending the Islanders will be facing. They are not going to have nearly as easy a time scoring this round.
2. If the Islanders win the series, the biggest reason will be…
DeFelice: Coaching. While the Islanders may not be as talented as the Capitals, they are sure to be a tougher opponent for the Bruins. Why? Because they have better structure, more discipline and a stronger work ethic than Washington -- the staple traits of a team led by Barry Trotz. And the Islanders have certainly taken on the identity of their head coach over the last three seasons. If the Islanders defeat the Bruins in a best-of-seven series it will be because of their commitment to team defense with opportunistic scoring -- and that is the Barry Trotz effect.
Proulx: Keeping games close and capitalizing on Bruins defensive mistakes. As I mentioned in the latest episode of the Skate Pod, the Islanders’ defensive style of play combined with their solid goaltending duo can be enough to keep them in every game and not let the score get out of hand. Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin are both goalies that the team trusts and they have split time on the season and in the Islanders’ Round 1 series win over the Penguins. Sorokin, who has the hot hand recently, could help the Islanders steal games the way other rookie goaltenders have done to the Bruins in playoffs past.
McLaughlin: Ilya Sorokin. Maybe it’s scar tissue from Braden Holtby in 2012, or Ken Dryden long before that, but seeing a rookie goalie get hot in the playoffs is always going to worry me. And Sorokin, who took over for a banged-up Semyon Varlamov in Round 1, looks pretty hot right now. He went 4-0 with a .943 save percentage against the Penguins, making 34 or more saves in three of those games and helping the Islanders win despite being badly outshot in a couple of them. He is extremely athletic and capable of making some highlight-reel saves that leave shooters shaking their heads. Even if the Bruins generally outplay the Islanders and even if Tuukka Rask plays well -- both of which I expect -- Sorokin is capable of stealing this series and becoming the latest Boston opponent to earn the middle name “[Expletive].”
3. Will this be the ultimate haunting of Mathew Barzal, whom the Bruins passed on three times in the 2015 draft?
DeFelice: Interesting question. It's painfully obvious that the Bruins whiffed on the 2015 draft because in addition to Barzal, they could have also picked other current NHL stars such as Brock Boeser, Kyle Connor or Thomas Chabot with any of their three consecutive first-round selections. With that said, the only way this will be the ultimate "haunting" from Barzal will be if he leads the Islanders to a series victory -- which I don't think he will. So, no, the Islanders' best player will be held in check for the most part by Patrice Bergeron, Charlie McAvoy and Tuukka Rask, and Barzal will not be haunting the Bruins this postseason.
Proulx: My gut feeling is no, though in order for the Islanders to win the series Barzal will have to bring his best hockey. He’s easily talented enough to -- in fact you’d have a hard time arguing that he’s not the most talented player on the team. But, he didn't make much of an impact last round against the Penguins, going all six games without a goal. If he had a tough time scoring against Tristan Jarry, it’s not going to get any easier for him against Tuukka Rask. I don’t think this series will be the ultimate haunting of Barzal, but his success over the past four seasons and obvious top-tier talent in this league have been enough to conjure regret in every organization that let him slide.
McLaughlin: I think the Bruins are going to win the series (more on that to come), so no. The Anthony Beauvillier-Brock Nelson-Josh Bailey line worries me more than Barzal’s line, to be honest. That said, there’s no question that 2015 first round hurt the Bruins -- not just passing on Barzal, but those other players Brian mentioned as well. Those guys all would’ve filled needs the Bruins have struggled to fill since then -- the top-six center of the future to take over from Patrice Bergeron and/or David Krejci (Barzal), the top-six left wing (Connor), the top-six right wing (Boeser), the left-shot puck-mover with size (Chabot). That the Bruins have finally filled so many of those holes this season with the likes of Taylor Hall, Craig Smith and Mike Reilly is impressive, but boy did it take a long time to get here.
4. Who are your X-factors on each team?
DeFelice: Bruins - Charlie McAvoy. The Long Island native will continue to be one of the more dominant defensemen in the postseason. He will lead the Bruins in time on ice, play in all situations and will turn defense into offense for the Bruins all while shutting down the Islanders’ top players. With five assists, McAvoy ranks second on the Bruins in postseason scoring heading into Round 2, and at the other end of the rink will be one of the main reasons that the Isles have a hard time scoring.
Islanders - Nassau Coliseum. OK, so it's not a player, I know, but does it make it any less of an X-factor? Anyone who watched the first-round series between the Islanders and Penguins noticed the glaring, atmospheric difference between their crowds. While Pittsburgh seemed more tame and corporate, Nassau was blue-collar and rabid and it absolutely made a difference -- a difference Bruins fans can certainly appreciate as another hardcore hockey crowd. Not only is this the final season the Islanders will be playing at Nassau Coliseum, but like the Garden, it will also be close to max capacity for the first time in over a year. The Islanders play a hard and honest style of play that their fans embrace at full volume. With an inferior roster to Boston, look for the Islanders to use their crowd as an advantage when the series shifts to Long Island.
Proulx: Bruins - Taylor Hall. Ever since the Bruins added Taylor Hall to their lineup at the trade deadline they have turned their series against the Islanders around, and a big part of that has been Hall’s production against them. Hall has a goal in all three Bruins wins over the Islanders. Before Hall’s addition, the Bruins were 0-3-2 against the Isles; since then they are 3-0-0. Hall can use his size and speed to break down a stingy Isles defense. He can beat his defenders one-on-one, the way he did when he scored his first goal as a Bruin on April 15 when he blew by Islanders defenseman Adam Pelech and made it look easy.
Islanders - Jean-Gabriel Pageau. He is a name Bruins fans have come to know because he has been somewhat of a Bruins killer this season, particularly early on. He has five goals in the season series, including a two-goal game against the Bruins on Feb. 13. Pageau is the Islanders’ third-line center, he is small but a pesky forechecker, a hard worker, and a play maker.
He had seven points (1g, 6a) in the Islanders’ Round 1 series against the Penguins. Only three players have more assists than Pageau so far in the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
McLaughlin: Bruins - Charlie Coyle. This is a series the Bruins could win without much depth scoring if their top two lines produce, so… why Coyle here? Because his line with Nick Ritchie and Jake DeBrusk on the wings will be interesting to watch from a defensive perspective as much as an offensive one. If there was any Bruins line you might have defensive questions about, it would be this one, but the Coyle line actually saw quite a bit of the Capitals’ top two lines in the first round and more than held their own. After being put together in Game 2, the Ritchie-Coyle-DeBrusk line was on the ice for two goals for and zero against. The three of them scored four goals total in the series (with Ritchie and DeBrusk scoring on separate lines in Game 1). If they can continue to be defensively sound and allow Cassidy to roll them out at any time in any matchup, that should free up the top six a little more. And if they continue to chip in offensively as well, then that’s just gravy.
Islanders - Josh Bailey. He’s the kind of player who always seems to step up in the playoffs, as evidenced by his six points in the first round and 20 points in 22 playoff games last year. For his career, he’s averaged 0.74 points per game in the playoffs compared to 0.56 in the regular season. He also has two overtime winners in the postseason under his belt, including in Game 5 against Pittsburgh. That said, he has done little against the Bruins recently, registering just one point in seven games against them this season and two in 13 meetings over the last three years.
5. Finally, what’s your prediction for the series?
DeFelice: Bruins in six. Despite my X-factor for the Islanders, I believe the Bruins will eliminate the Islanders during Game 6 of their best-of-seven series in what will be the final hockey game ever played at Nassau Coliseum. Ultimately, I believe the Bruins’ speed, skill, depth, structure and experience will be too much for the Islanders to overcome and as I mentioned before, Boston is better on special teams as well. The Islanders are a heavy team that plays with structure and discipline, presenting a share of challenges for Boston, but at the end of the day, the better team usually wins a best-of-seven and the Bruins will be moving on to the NHL's final four.
Proulx: Bruins in five. I think it’s feasible for the Bruins to take four of the first five games in the series based on the advantages they have in several facets of the game, including power play, penalty kill and overall talent in the Bruins’ top six forwards. The Islanders’ game plan is based around outworking teams, but with players like Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and Charlie McAvoy (though the list goes on), they won’t be able to do that easily, if at all. If goaltending is equal in the series -- and it should be pretty close in theory -- then the Bruins’ ability to get to the front of the net, get quality chances from their top two lines, and use their playoff experience to handle the pressure they should be able to punch their ticket to the semifinals.
McLaughlin: Bruins in five. My fear that Sorokin steals a game or three got me to think long and hard about this, but ultimately I think the Bruins’ ability to match the Islanders in all their areas of strength -- defense, goaltending, structure -- should allow their sizable advantage in offensive talent to win out.