We’ve made it to Week 17 of the NFL season, folks, and it has been a wild one. Games have been tough to predict, as some underdogs have flourished, while heavy favorites floundered. For the final week of this turbulent season in a roller coaster of a year, here is the casual bettor’s guide to Week 17 with picks for every game.
Odds courtesy of BetQL as of Wednesday
Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, O/U 54.5) at Detroit Lions
Both of these teams have lost their last three games and neither are in playoff contention. But the Vikings actually have some pride to protect with a win here. Matthew Stafford might not start for Detroit. Will the Lions even have any coaches? We don’t know. If you’re a Lions fan, just take this week to focus on yourself or maybe root for another team. I’m going with the Vikings -6.5, U 54.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, O/U 50.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Buccaneers are rolling right now and things aren’t exactly going great for the Falcons. The Bucs are in the playoffs, but it’s not in Tom Brady’s nature to take it easy when the stakes are low.
Considering Tampa’s confidence will be high after their 17-point comeback win over the Falcons just two weeks ago, and Brady hasn’t lost a game since he bought his new boat at the beginning of December, I’m definitely going with the Bucs -6.5 here, O 50.5.
New England Patriots (-3, O/U 41) vs. New York Jets
This matchup makes me laugh because I actually think the Jets are going to win this one and I never thought I’d be saying that a few weeks ago. The Patriots look putrid, especially after their mortifying loss to the Bills Monday night, and the Jets have won their last two games. I’m done with these Patriots and taking the red-hot Jets +3, U 41.
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Buffalo Bills (Even, O/U 47.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
The odds for this game are even as of Wednesday, but the Dolphins could really use a win here, and the Bills are already in the playoffs. Tua Tagovailoa is still the starter even after he had to be pulled in Week 16 and the Dolphins were saved by some FitzMagic. But the Bills aren’t expected to play their starters and this could be a FitzTragic one for the Dolphins. I’m taking the O 47.5 in this one.
Cleveland Browns (-10, O/U 42) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns are pretty big favorites in this showdown, but they closed their facility for COVID-19 contact tracing on Wednesday, so that’s not exactly a great sign for a traditionally downtrodden franchise.
Even with Ben Roethlisberger sitting for Pittsburgh, I think the Steelers are going to run over the Browns. And they’ll do it at Firstenergy Stadium, which we know from the Progessive commercials, is where Baker Mayfield lives. The Browns’ loss to the Jets last week was bad and it’s tough to bet on any team coming off a loss to the Jets. See: Los Angeles Rams. Give me the Steelers +10, O 42.
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, O/U 44.5) at New York Giants
Both of these teams still have playoff hopes and need a win here. But with the Cowboys on a three-game winning streak and the Giants on a three-game losing streak, I’m going with pure momentum in this one and the Cowboys -2.5, O 44.5.
Baltimore Ravens (-11.5, O/U 44.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens are 41-0 all-time when favored by double-digits and that’s really all I need to hear. Betting against that seems like a dumb move, plus the Ravens beat the Bengals 27-3 in Week 5, and they’re on a four-game winning streak. Give me the Ravens -11.5, O 44.5.
Indianapolis Colts (-14, O/U 50) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
There is so much sharp money on the Colts and this gigantic spread early in the week, according to BetQL. No way you can bet on the Jaguars and be able to look at yourself in the mirror. The Jaguars got their No.1 overall pick in the 2021 draft while setting a franchise record for consecutive losses. Is that bad? I’m going with the obvious here, Colts -14, O 50.
Tennessee Titans (-7.5, O/U 56) at Houston Texans
The Titans need a win here to make it to the postseason, so they have something to play for against the Texans. Houston stinks and J.J Watt even apologized to the fans for how bad the team is right now. It’s pretty close to hitting bottom when that happens. No-brainer. Going with the Titans, -7.5 and O 56.
Los Angeles Rams (-1, O/U 39.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Rams are having a lot of issues this week with Jared Goff out, Cooper Kupp on the COVID-19 list, and a bunch of other players out. There are too many variables here, and variables are unnecessary drama. The Rams need this game to make it to the playoffs, so all that drama is bad for them. I’m taking the Cardinals +1, O 39.5.
New Orleans Saints (-6.5, O/U 58) at Carolina Panthers
The Saints still have something to play for and the Panthers have been out of the postseason race for a while. New Orleans has a chance to get that first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs and the Panthers are busy looking to next season and dispelling rumors of their players being paid in bitcoin. I’m going with the Saints -6.5, U 58.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5, O/U 52) at Chicago Bears
Well, would you look at that, the Bears actually have a chance at the playoffs. They just have to beat the Packers. And the odds are against them. Chicago’s enemy number one, Aaron Rodgers, and company are going to be a tall task for the Bears, but if Mitch Trubisky steps up, they could pull this off. In any case, I’m taking the Packers -5.5, O 52.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, O/U 44) at Kansas City Chiefs
Andy Reid is resting some of his Kansas City players this week, possibly Patrick Mahomes, and I still think they’re going to beat the Chargers.
The Chiefs are on a 10-game winning streak, Eric Bieniemy is coaching the offense knowing other teams are looking at him for a head coaching job, and a 15-1 record looks a lot better than 14-2. The Chargers aren’t playing for anything and Anthony Lynn is just waiting for his pink slip to come on Monday. Give me the Chiefs +3.5, O 44.
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, O/U 46.5) at San Francisco 49ers
The Seahawks are in the playoffs already, but can still capture the NFC’s No. 1 seed. A few things need to go down in Week 17 for that to happen but winning this game is the one thing Seattle can control. The 49ers are going to be without a bunch of starters and they aren’t playing for anything. I’m definitely taking the Seahawks -5.5 here, O 46.5.
Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5, O/U 50.5) at Denver Broncos
The Broncos are playing for nothing here except to end this season as quickly as possible. The Raiders also don’t have any stake in this game after being eliminated from playoff contention, but they did destroy the Broncos in Week 15, and can get to 8-8 with a win. That will make people who bet Over the Raiders win total of 7.5 very happy. I’m definitely taking the Raiders -2.5, O 50.5.
Washington Football Team (-1.5, O/U 43) at Philadelphia Eagles
Whether it’s Alex Smith or Taylor Heinicke starting at quarterback for Washington, I’m all in on the Eagles and Jalen Hurts in this one. Washington can take the NFC East with a win here but they’ve lost the last two games. So have the Eagles, but they don’t have any playoff pressure on them and, again, they have Hurts. Give me the Eagles +1.5, O 43.