There are plenty of intricacies to the game of basketball, but at its roots, it’s a simple game. If you aren’t making shots, it’s hard to win. And while you can point to other factors — turnovers, defensive breakdowns, lack of attention to detail, closing quarters, rebounding, and some late-game execution — the real reason the Celtics find themselves in an 0-2 hole is because they’re missing shots they usually make.
The Celtics, a team that set an NBA record for most three-pointers in a single season, have made just 25 of their 100 attempts through the first two games of this series. Their 75 misses are the most over any two-game span in NBA playoff history. Their 12.5 threes per game are 5.3 (15.9 points) below their NBA-record 17.8 regular-season average. Their 25% conversion rate is 11.8 percentage points lower than the 36.8% they shot in the regular season.
“We got a lot of great looks. We’ve just got to convert,” Jaylen Brown said after Game 2. “We’ve got to make plays. We just didn’t make plays tonight, and that was the story of the game. Our defense did enough. We got some great open looks. We’ve got to convert those.”
That’s been the story of the series. Over the first two games, NBA tracking data suggests the Celtics are shooting just 12-of-48 (25.0%) on “wide-open” threes (closest defender 6+ feet away). They’re also 12-of-48 (25.0%) on “open” threes (closest defender 4-6 feet away). That’s 96 of their 100 attempts being considered good looks — and they’re hitting just a quarter of them.
In the regular season, Boston averaged 9.0 “wide-open” makes per game and 6.8 “open” makes per game. That drop-off is costing them about 12 points per game. They shot 40.7% on “wide-open” looks during the regular season — a 15.7% drop — and 35.0% on “open” looks, a 10.0% drop.
In the fourth quarter, the Celtics are shooting just 4-of-26 from three this series (15.4%). And if you go back and watch the tape, about 85% of those looks have been good ones.
Jayson Tatum (0-of-7) and Jaylen Brown (0-of-2) are a combined 0-of-9. Derrick White (1-of-6) and Payton Pritchard (2-of-5) — both of whom ranked top-six in fourth-quarter threes this season — are a combined 3-of-11. Jrue Holiday is 1-of-4 and Al Horford is 0-of-2.
All seven of Tatum’s fourth-quarter attempts were open or wide-open. Same for White, Pritchard, Holiday, Horford, and one of Brown’s.
Looking at the whole series, 19 of Tatum’s (5-of-19) looks have been open or wide open, 16 of Brown’s (3-of-16), 27 of White’s (7-of-27), and 13 of Pritchard’s (4-of-13). Jrue Holiday is 2-of-8 on open or wide-open looks, and Al Horford is 1-of-10.
The tracking data isn’t flawless, but it paints a pretty accurate picture — the Celtics are getting good looks. They’re just not hitting them.
“We have a way that we play. We have an identity, and it can’t waiver just because we’re missing shots. We can’t change who we are. I always say, you’ve got to be the same person when things are going well, and when things aren’t going well,” said Tatum. “We can’t be defined by makes and misses. It’s the right way to play basketball. If you are open, you’ve got to take the shot.”
It goes beyond just the three-point line. The Celtics are shooting 6-of-19 (31.6%) from mid-range, 8-of-29 (27.6%) in the paint, and 29-of-43 (67.4%) in the restricted area. That’s a drop of 13.3% from their regular-season mid-range percentage, 15.4% in the paint, and 3.2% at the rim.
Overall, every rotation player — except Holiday, who’s shooting 55.0%, up from 44.3% in the regular season — is shooting below their regular-season shooting percentage. Tatum (-16.6%), Horford (-18.8%), Porzingis (-15.0%), and Brown (-11.4%) are all down double digits. White (-9.9%) and Pritchard (-7.2%) aren’t far behind.
“We got some really, really good looks from three. We missed a lot of bunnies, a lot of layups,” said Tatum. “Those are tough. Guys work really hard on their game and their craft, and prepare to be in those moments to hit open shots. It just hasn’t happened in the last two games. But you can’t lose your confidence. We just talked about it. When you are open, you’ve got to shoot the ball. Don’t worry about the last shot, don’t worry about the next shot. Shoot it with confidence. I’m sure they’ll start falling soon.”
It really isn’t complicated. The Celtics had their two worst shooting nights of the season in Games 1 (35.1%) and 2 (36.2%), and that’s not an exaggeration. Prior to this week, their worst shooting performance in any regular or postseason game this year was 36.5%.
“It’s something we’re working through right now as a group, as a team, and it has happened to us before,” Horford said on the shotmaking. “And sometimes when you’re able to win the game, a lot of that stuff goes away. I expect us to be better.”
It’s just the fifth time in the last 25 years that the Celtics have shot less than 36.0% over a two-game playoff span. They have played 284 playoff games over that stretch.
“I think we’re due for a lot of makes,” said Brown. “I think we had a lot of great shots that once again didn’t go in. We just got to relax, take a deep breath, and play Celtics basketball. Just like we’re down 0-2, we can tie this thing back up.”
The law of averages would say he’s right. And that just might be what flips this series.
Related
