The Celtics’ Round 2 matchup is set — and it’s a familiar foe.
With the New York Knicks’ 116-113 win over the Detroit Pistons, it’ll be Boston vs. New York with a trip to the Eastern Conference finals on the line.
It marks the first time in 12 years that the Celtics and Knicks will meet in the NBA playoffs — and the first time they’ll face off beyond the first round since Boston edged New York in a seven-game second-round series back in 1984.
Boston swept the regular season series 4-0, winning by an average margin of 16.3 points. Three of the four wins came by double digits — 23, 27, and 13 points — while the final meeting was an overtime thriller, which the Celtics pulled out by two.
In the first three matchups, Boston trailed for a combined total of just 50 seconds. It was their first season sweep of the Knicks since 2019-20.
“Not at all,” Jayson Tatum said when asked if the sweep meant anything last month. “Playoffs are a different animal. Whatever happened in the regular season goes out the window when the playoffs start.”
DraftKings has the Celtics opening as -800 favorites for the series and -8.5-point favorites in Game 1, which will be played on Monday night at TD Garden.
Here are five initial thoughts on a Celtics-Knicks Eastern Conference semifinals matchup.
The offense will return to form
Orlando was able to push the Celtics away from their usual style. Boston attempted just 156 three-pointers over the five games — the fewest over a five-game span in the Joe Mazzulla era. Their 59 made threes and 101 assists were also the fewest in any five-game stretch under Mazzulla.
The Celtics averaged just 31.2 three-point attempts per game — dead last compared to regular season numbers — and made only 11.8, a far cry from their league-record 48.2 attempts and 16.7 makes per game. Their 20.2 assists marked a steep drop from their regular-season average of 26.1, and they also ranked last in passes made per game during the series.
The Magic were able to limit the Celtics largely because their personnel allows it (their rugged, physical style certainly helped). They could guard Boston straight up and stick defenders one-on-one, a luxury the Knicks don’t have.
Against New York this season, the Celtics averaged 125 points per game — a number they didn’t come close to against Orlando, where they averaged just 106.4. In those games vs. the Knicks, Boston averaged 48.3 three-point attempts, 21.0 makes (43.5%), 26.8 assists, shot 50% from the field, and turned the ball over just 10.5 times per game. They posted an absurd 130.2 offensive rating.
Those numbers bode well for Boston. The Celtics are 14-1 when scoring 125+ points (32-3 when they score 120+), 20-1 when they hit 21 or more threes, 39-4 when they dish out 26+ assists, and 23-2 when they shoot 50% or better from the field.
There are plenty of seals to hunt for Boston’s “Killer Whale” offense
There’s a reason Boston’s offensive numbers look the way they do. The Celtics are elite matchup hunters — and New York has plenty for them to target, starting with two players they can’t afford to take off the floor: Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Boston specifically thrives against slow-footed bigs (Towns) and undersized guards (Brunson), creating a matchup nightmare for New York.
The Celtics shot 42-of-76 (55.3%) against Towns across four meetings this season. Against Brunson, they went 21-of-45 (46.7%). Anytime either gets pulled into a pick-and-roll, Boston typically ends up with a high-quality look.
And it doesn’t stop there. Even Mikal Bridges — a player the Knicks gave up five first-round picks (four unprotected) for to help contain Boston’s wings—was targeted. The Celtics shot 26-of-44 (59.1%) against him. They also hit 31-of-55 (56.4%) when defended by Josh Hart, another respected defender.
Jayson Tatum, in particular, has dominated the matchup.
Nobody scored more points against the Knicks this season than Tatum, who averaged 33.5 points on 53.5% shooting from the field and 47.8% from three, along with 7.0 assists and 6.8 rebounds. The Celtics were +58 with him on the floor against New York this season, and he topped 30 points in three of the four games.
No matter what the Knicks threw at him, he had an answer.
Of his 134 total points against New York this season, 43 came against Towns, who he shot 16-of-25 (64.0%) from the field and 6-of-12 (50.0%) from deep against. Another 35 came against Bridges, who he lit up, shooting 13-of-19 (68.4%) from the field and 4-of-7 (57.1%) from three.
Last series, Tatum became only the second Celtic to score 35+ points in three straight playoff games, joining Larry Bird. He averaged 31.3 on 44.7% shooting, with 11.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.5 steals. He led the Celtics in points (+125) and rebounds (45) while finishing second in assists (21) and steals (6) despite missing Game 2.
Given the favorable matchup and the high level at which Tatum is playing, this could be the next chapter in what is shaping up to be a special playoff run.
A bounce-back opportunity for Kristaps Porzingis
Round 1 was a rough go for Kristaps Porzingis. He shot just 19-of-54 (35.2%) overall and 2-of-17 (11.8%) from three. On the other end, Orlando shot 36-of-72 (50%) against him. He struggled with the Magic’s physicality in the post, couldn’t draw fouls, and had trouble shooting over the smaller guards and wings they threw at him.
This series should be a different story.
Porzingis averaged 24.5 points on 17-of-34 (50.0%) shooting from the field and 10-of-22 (45.5%) from three, along with 5.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.0 blocks, and 1.0 steals in two games against the Knicks this season. That 24.5-point average was tied for his highest against any team he faced multiple times, matching his performance against Brooklyn.
This is a very favorable matchup for Porzingis, who has taken advantage of the Knicks’ defensive weaknesses. He’s in line for a much better showing than he had against Orlando.
But beyond scoring, his floor spacing and rim protection will be critical for Boston. The Knicks take 34.7% of their shots at the rim (within four feet)—the fourth-highest rate in the league. They scored 43.2% of their points in the paint this season, with 46.7 paint points per game, which ranked fifth in the NBA and led the Eastern Conference.
Boston will need the 7-foot-3 big man to be active around the rim, but to do so without fouling. Detroit averaged a playoff-high 22.8 fouls per game in their first-round series against New York. Jalen Brunson, who ranked second in drives per game (17.8) behind only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, draws fouls on 13.3% of his shot attempts.
Defending without fouling will be key—for Porzingis and the Celtics as a whole.
Slowing down Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson
The reason both Brunson and Towns are All-NBA caliber players despite their defensive flaws is their offense — and they’ve found success against the Celtics this season.
Brunson averaged 26.8 points on 52.8% shooting from the field and 43.3% from three, along with 5.3 assists against Boston this season. Towns, while held below his season averages of 24.2 points (52.6% FG, 42.0% 3PT), still averaged 19.8 points (53.4% FG, 63.6% 3PT), 12.0 rebounds, and 1.5 assists.
They are the offense. They account for 39.6% of the shot attempts and 43.5% of the scoring.
When the Knicks threatened the Celtics throughout the regular season, Brunson and Towns were at the center of it. Boston knows they’re going to score—it’s about what they’re willing to live with and how well they can limit everyone else.
OG Anunoby, New York’s third-leading scorer this season (18.0 PPG), and Mikal Bridges, their fourth (17.6 PPG), have been severely limited against Boston. Anunoby averaged just 9.0 points (29.6% FG, 13.3% 3PT), while Bridges scored 13.8 points per game (42.9% FG, 31.8% 3PT).
New York isn’t going to stop Boston’s offense — they’ll have to keep up with it. That means the supporting cast around Brunson and Towns needs to step up. If the Knicks are going to trade blows, they’ll need more than what Anunoby, Bridges, and the rest have given them in the four meetings this season.
How healthy are the Celtics?
There’s an Empire State Building-sized gap between these two teams, which is why most of their matchups this season have been relatively uncompetitive. Even in the close game, Boston was without Al Horford and had a hobbled Jaylen Brown, who played just 21 minutes, yet still managed to come away with the win.
Assuming the Celtics are healthy, they should make quick work of this series. They have matchup advantages all over the floor, more experience, and the deeper roster. The biggest question: how healthy are they coming off a physical series with Orlando?
Jrue Holiday’s status looms large. He hasn’t played since Game 2 on April 23 due to a hamstring injury. He hasn’t been spotted during the media-accessible portions of shootarounds, nor has he taken part in pregame warmups.
Holiday has been effective against the Knicks this season, scoring in double figures in all three games and averaging 16.0 points on 66.7% shooting from the field and 57.1% from deep, along with 4.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.0 steals. His lowest-scoring game vs. New York? Fourteen points. Boston is 54-3 all-time (including playoffs) when Holiday scores 14+.
The six days of rest between rounds should help. Now it’s just a matter of whether Holiday is ready to go and how well everyone else’s bumps and bruises hold up.
Prediction: Celtics in four. It’s tough to sweep a team in the NBA Playoffs, but Boston just has too many advantages. The Knicks went 0-10 this season against the NBA’s upper echelon — Boston, Cleveland, and Oklahoma City — and there’s little reason to think that changes now.
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