The NHL offseason just got a lot more interesting with the news that Matthew Tkachuk has informed the Flames that he won’t be signing a long-term extension with them, as first reported by The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford and Hailey Salvian.
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That makes it likely that the Flames, already reeling from the departure of Johnny Gaudreau, now trade the 24-year-old restricted free agent.
As another Athletic writer, Dom Luszczyszyn, so succinctly put it, Tkachuk is “a unicorn” and “every single team should be in on him.”
He is the kind of elite offensive power forward that every team drools over. He’s coming off a 42-goal, 104-point season and just beginning his prime years.
When Bruins president Cam Neely was asked back in May if he thought the team needed a power forward like himself -- which Tkachuk is -- he had this to say:
“It would be great to have someone like that, there’s no question. I think every team would love that. And the teams that have them, they hang on to them. They don’t let them go. It’s just a matter of the scouting department going to work and trying to find someone for us.”
Well, here’s a case of a team not being able to hang on to one of them. So, the Bruins should be in on Tkachuk, right?
On one hand, sure. They should be doing their due diligence, as should every other team in the NHL. Tkachuk, who can play either wing, would be the perfect Bruin. This fanbase would fall head over heels for him before his plane landed. His father, Keith, is from Medford and went to Boston University. His brother, Brady, also went to BU. He already has friends here, having grown up with Jayson Tatum and Trent Frederic in St. Louis.
The problem, of course, is what it would cost to get Tkachuk, both in terms of the trade package to acquire him and the money to extend him. The Bruins, as you may have heard, are not exactly teeming with trade chips or cap space.
Tkachuk’s next contract will likely be for eight years and at least $9 million a year, possibly more than $10 million. It would kick in this season. The Bruins, or any other team, would only trade for him if they knew he was willing to sign with them.
The Bruins are already trying to find a way to fit in new contracts for Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci and Pavel Zacha with the less than $5 million of cap space that they have. Matching salaries in a potential Tkachuk trade would pretty much be a necessity.
Matching salaries with players the Flames would actually want is a different animal. Would some combination of Jake DeBrusk ($4 million AAV), Brandon Carlo ($4.1M), Matt Grzelcyk ($3.7M) and Mike Reilly ($3M) even move the needle? Probably only if you’re including a couple top prospects (Fabian Lysell, Mason Lohrei) and/or first-round picks with it.
Even then, other teams could offer better NHL roster players and/or prospects. Tkachuk’s hometown Blues look like the natural betting favorites to trade for him. The Athletic speculates that their offer could be centered around Jordan Kyrou (75 points last season, 24 years old) and also include either Vladimir Tarasenko or Torey Krug to make the money work -- possibly adding a third team if those veterans won’t waive their no-trade for Calgary.
The Bruins wouldn’t be able to match that from the group of players two paragraphs up. There might be only one way they could match or beat it: Trade David Pastrnak.
And that seems unlikely. The only way the Bruins would probably do that is if they’re getting indications that Pastrnak, who is entering the final year of his contract, won’t sign a long-term extension before the season. To be clear, there have been no such indications yet, at least not publicly. But if there were, and he wants to test free agency next summer, then the Flames probably wouldn’t want him as the centerpiece of the trade anyways. They’re bound to take a step back this season regardless, so how much good does one year of Pastrnak do them?
A scenario where Pastrnak wouldn’t sign with Boston now but would with Calgary seems extremely unlikely. Conceivably, there could be a scenario where Pastrnak would sign with either team, Tkachuk would sign with Boston, and the two sides could make a straight-up, one-for-one trade with both players immediately signing extensions.
We’re not sure that makes any sense for the Bruins, though. While Tkachuk definitely had a better season than Pastrnak last year (27 more points, better defense), Pastrnak out-produced Tkachuk over the previous three. From 2018-21, Pastrnak had 106 goals and 224 points in 184 games, while Tkachuk had 73 goals and 181 points in 205 games. According to Evolving-Hockey, total wins above replacement since 2018 are 12.1 for Pastrnak vs. 9.3 for Tkachuk. Pastrnak has been the better postseason performer as well -- 74 points in 70 career playoff games, compared to 15 in 27 for Tkachuk.
You can’t ignore these two possibilities either: 1) that Pastrnak bounces back from two “down” years marred by injury and personal tragedy and becomes a Rocket Richard candidate again, and 2) that Tkachuk’s 2021-22 proves to be his career-best season and he regresses at least a little bit going forward. If the Bruins made this swap and those two things happened, it wouldn’t look good for them.
So, could the Bruins make a run at Tkachuk? As we always say, anything’s possible if you’re willing to give up enough. Does it seem at all likely that they do? Not really.
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