We’ve seen this story play out before. Several years ago, the Red Sox proclaimed they were moving forward with a new organizational philosophy that precluded them from investing in pitchers older than 30 years old. So when Jon Lester was nearing free agency, they insulted their homegrown ace with a low-ball offer, and then traded him at midseason.
The 2014 campaign resulted in a last-place finish, and they finished last the following year, too. Faced with losing market share and an increasingly agitated fan base, the Red Sox brought in Dave Dombrowski, who promptly signed David Price, a 30-year-old pitcher, to an astronomical seven-year, $217 million deal.
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Lester, for what it’s worth, signed a six-year, $155 million contract with the Cubs. A few years later, the Red Sox traded for Chris Sale, and inked him to a five-year, $145 million extension, despite numerous concerns about his durability.
Sale has remarked that he owes Lester for his big payday. All it took for the Red Sox to abandon their financial discipline was some bad PR and results on the field.
Sound familiar?
The Red Sox will likely finish last this season with a payroll north of the luxury tax, which is quite a feat. But their $207 payroll is a bit of a mirage. They rank 13th out of 30 MLB teams in spending since the Sale extension, and that number jumps to 15th if you don’t include Trevor Story, who was seemingly signed to replace Xander Bogaerts at a cheaper rate.
It’s apparent that Chaim Bloom was directed to trim payroll and turn the Red Sox into a leaner operation. The process took them within two wins of a World Series appearance last year, but left them embarrassingly thin this season. The big market Red Sox entered the 2021 campaign without a Major League first baseman, corner outfielder or enough depth in the bullpen.
As a result, they’ve been pilloried and branded as the “Boston Rays.” The feeling inside Fenway Park gets more deflated with each passing night.
An offseason run at Aaron Judge could change a lot of those perceptions.
It seems like the Red Sox are guaranteed to let Xander Bogaerts walk. They reportedly presented him with a laughable offer in Spring Training (history repeats itself) and he’s been outspoken about his frustration this season. The star shortstop recently commiserated to the Globe’s Alex Speier that he “doesn’t know what’s going on.”
Enter Judge.
The 30-year-old slugger, who will turn 31 next April, is the clear front-runner to win AL MVP. He’s smacked 48 home runs with 105 RBIs through 121 games, and is on pace to break Roger Maris’ AL record of 61 homers in a single season.
Pursuing Judge, and possibly stealing him from the Yankees, would quiet down the loud voices who are bellyaching over the Red Sox’ newfound frugality. The Globe’s Dan Shaughnessy even raised the idea in a column this week.
Never mind that Judge would probably be a bad investment. He’s battled injuries throughout his career and strikes out a ton. He seems like a prime candidate to break down as he enters his fourth decade.
Offering Judge a monstrous contract worth more than $300 million, while letting Bogaerts walk, makes little strategic sense. But under John Henry, the Red Sox, for all of their talk about analytics, have been reactionary.
Ownership thought they needed “sexy guys,” so they acquired Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Then they needed to boost interest after a miserable 2014 season, so they signed Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.
The list goes on and on.
It’s unlikely the Red Sox would sign Judge, of course. But they could say they tried. Desperate times call for desperate PR campaigns.