Let’s cut to the chase here: the Patriots are looking at their best draft position in two decades, and they’re in desperate need of a quarterback. New England should take this (hopefully) rare opportunity to pounce on a talented quarterback with its top pick, even if it means passing on a generational receiver.
It’s tempting to look at the incredible talent Marvin Harrison Jr. has shown in his college play and say, “Hey, here’s a sure thing. Why gamble on the 33% success rate first-round quarterbacks seem to show when I can have a sure thing?”
Well, because even in accepting the assumption that Harrison will be a Ja'Marr Chase-level receiver, that position is usually not enough to change the years-long trajectory of a franchise, even when it’s an absolute hit. Look at Calvin Johnson, whom the Detroit Lions picked second overall in 2007.
“You never pick the wide receiver early until you have the quarterback, number one, and number two that the roster can be really good. I was part of the Lions when we took Calvin, and Calvin was unbelievable, but we weren’t good enough at quarterback or the rest of the roster to pay it off,” former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky told Jones & Mego on WEEI.
Another thing – for as much hemming and hawing we hear about first-round busts, first-rounders still dominate starting jobs in a healthy NFL season. The position has been riddled with injuries this year, but a look at de facto franchise/starting quarterbacks in Week 1 of the season revealed 23 of the 32 starters, or 72%, were first-round picks. Only 9% of starting quarterbacks were found in the second round, and just 19% of starting quarterbacks were selected in the third round or later.
Of all those starting quarterbacks, a whopping 47% were top-10 picks.
Of course, not all these guys are great, or even good enough to avoid benchings. We’ve seen enough of that in our own sad backyard. But it does demonstrate the league’s overall value on the picks compared to the position. For every Dak Prescott, there’s a Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and Patrick Mahomes. For Kirk Cousins, there’s a Lamar Jackson, CJ Stroud, and Josh Allen. The top guys still tend to be drafted at the top.
The guide here should be to stay in the first round. Patriots fans may dream of taking Marvin Harrison Jr. and then scooping up a Jayden Daniels in the second round, or later, but this stock of quarterbacks appears to be rising like cream to the top. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler’s most recent mock draft had Daniels at Pick 7.
The market around this pick will matter to the Patriots as well. There are no major free-agent quarterbacks looking to shake loose this Spring, a la Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers. Any pickup with the Patriots’ $100 million free agency money would likely be a bridge quarterback, and why pass on a the chance to grab a rookie in a draft with the likes of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., or Jayden Daniels? Because you might get it wrong?
What if you get it right? It’s the opportunity to change everything.