Henry Davis. Jack Leiter. Their existences weren't complicated.
Draft the college kids and then in a year -- two years at most -- we'll see you at Fenway Park.
But, out of nowhere, we were presented with Marcelo Mayer, the high school shortstop who was supposed to be the first overall pick in the Major League Baseball Draft but landed to the Red Sox at No. 4.
Exciting stuff ... we think.
"This draft seemed a little unsettled at the top and it was tough to grasp if there was consensus on these players, amongst not just the three teams that picked ahead of us, but of course ourselves, and the teams that picked behind us," said Red Sox amateur scouting director Paul Toboni. "What became pretty clear as the first couple picks unfolded was that we likely had these players ranked a little bit differently. We had a subset of players I think we really liked but I think this outcome is one everybody is really, really excited about."
This is what we know: Mayer is 6-foot-3, hasn't lifted a weight, has one of the sweetest lefty swings in the Draft, seems always under control and likes to get fancy when fielding ground balls. ("If you watch this kid take pregame groundballs, he's one of the cockiest defenders I've ever seen in my life. I say that with positive tone behind it, where he's flipping balls with his glove, and catching balls through the legs, and going behind the back. It's not like he's showing off, it's just kind of his nature, it all comes pretty easy to him," Toboni said.)
Teammates also, evidently, like being around the kid from Eastlake (CA) High.
It's an entire package that immediately will likely place the shortstop as a Top 50 prospect. And for a farm system that is trying to change its narrative, that's something.
"I think the first thing that jumps out to you about the kid is really how he -- this sounds crazy -- but how he interacts with people," Toboni added. "Just walking into the park and how mature he is and what a leader he is. I can get into that more extensively here in a bit but it just jumps out at you right from the get go. He’s a big kid, he’s probably 6-3, he’s never lifted a weight before though, and he’s got really -- he moves with such loose, comfortable action. That excites us as scouts because we see a lot of runway with him going forward. I guess the second thing that jumps out at you, once he starts playing catch and going through pre-game and eventually getting into the game, he has such a natural feel to play the game and such natural instincts to play the game."
OK. Fair enough.
But let's get down to brass tacks: When will this kid actually start making a difference as a major-leaguer?
First off, the idea that this pick puts the Red Sox in perfect position to have a replacement in place in case Xander Bogaerts decides to opt-out after the 2022 season is silly.
Let's take the major league player Mayer is most compared to, Corey Seager of the Dodgers. He was taken with the 18th overall pick out of high school in the 2012 Draft. It took until Sept. 3, 2015 before he made his big league debut.
That same 2012 Draft, an 18-year-old named Carlos Correa was picked with the first overall pick. His debut came June 8, 2015. Another high school shortstop in that Draft cracked the majors for the first time on April 21, 2015.
You get the picture. It's likely going to take two full years in the minor leagues, at least, to get the Mayer in the majors experience. And that's best case scenario.
Nick Gordon, the 8th overall pick in 2014, just made it to the major leagues for the first time in 2021. Another Twins pick, 2017 first overall selection Royce Lewis, has yet to find the bigs. (That was also the year current Red Sox prospect Jeter Downs was taken 32nd overall.)
So, the point is that the Red Sox won't have to start thinking about rearranging their major league deck for some time. Perhaps they give us a taste via a 2022 spring training invite, along the lines of last year's pick Nick Yorke. But, that's it.
The idea of getting a legitimate future All-Star should be invigorating to the fan base. The patient that is packaged with the scenario ... not so much. Welcome to the reality of building a baseball team.
“I don’t want to put the cart before the horse here, but I think, and I’ll leave this up to player development, my guess would be we’d get his feet wet in the complex league, just get him adjusted to the pro lifestyle a little bit," Toboni explained. "He had a really long season and I’m sure his body’s fatigued to some degree. Just getting him accustomed to our programs and the way we do things. I think it’s such an advantage to have a facility like we do in Fort Myers. My guess is that’s where he would start. How long he might be down there, I’m not exactly sure.”