The Patriots’ list of NFL Draft picks is officially set (for now).
Yesterday, the NFL awarded New England two additional draft picks – the 135th selection in the fourth round (for losing J.C. Jackson in free agency) and the 210th selection in Round 6 (for losing Ted Karras). That puts the team’s total draft haul at 10 picks heading into the weekend.
The selections are as follows: Nos. 14 (Rd. 1), 46 (Rd. 2), 76 (Rd. 3), 107 (Rd. 4), 117 (Rd. 4), 135 (Rd. 4), 184 (Rd. 6), 187 (Rd. 6), 192 (Rd. 6), 210 (Rd. 6).
Here’s what this could mean for the Patriots on draft day.
-Pats set to rake in strong middle of draft
Though Days 1 and 2 of the draft tend to get the most shine, Round 4 in particular is a place the best teams can still find starting-caliber talent that can contribute right away.
Last year, the Patriots hit on two fourth-round picks who played big roles in 2022 – cornerback Jack Jones, who was one of the top-graded coverage players in the league early in the year – and backup quarterback Bailey Zappe, who kept the ship afloat while Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer were injured and may even have quietly challenged to keep the starting job.
Other notable fourth-round picks in recent years include Rhamondre Stevenson, who has emerged as New England’s top running back, and Deatrich Wise Jr.
The Patriots also have shown a knack for finding good players in the sixth round, headlined more recently by dominant right guard Michael Onwenu and Karras.
This year, New England could have a shot at some strong defensive line and edge depth, a strong wave of tight ends and some intriguing receiver options, like Wake Forest’s A.T. Perry, on Day 3. There’s likely a significant 2023 contributor in there somewhere.
-Another second-round trade-up coming?
Trading up in the second round of the draft has become something of a tradition for the New England Patriots over the years.
The Pats have moved up to grab a player in the second round for the last six years running. Here’s the list: Tyquan Thornton (2022), Christian Barmore (2021), Josh Uche (2020, Devin Asiasi (2019), Joejuan Williams (2018), Duke Dawson (2017).
Well…at least they seem to be getting somewhat better at it!
The benefits for doing so are obvious: snag a player you have a first-round grade on to get more bang for your buck at the top of the draft (in theory) before someone else scoops him. The last two seasons, the Patriots have operated by taking a player at a position of need first (Mac Jones in 2021, Cole Strange in 2022) and a good developmental player at a less dire position with their second-round trade-up (Barmore in 2021, Thornton in 2022).
Interestingly, the Patriots had the 46th overall pick in 2021 as well when they sent the 122nd and 139th picks to the Bengals in order to slide up to 38 and take Barmore. Last year, it took a fifth-round pick to jump up from 54 to 50 for Thornton.
Expect a move like that to be in the cards again for the Patriots in 2023.
Specifically, New England might be able to snag a very good offensive tackle, cornerback or interior defensive player if they secured a late first-round or early second-round pick in a trade-up this year.
-Expect more comp picks next year
This is the underrated part of why the Patriots don’t rush to re-sign players, especially ones they don’t view as completely essential to keep.
When you let good players go and they get paid big, you get comp picks in return that you can flip into solid players.
If not for injuries that derailed J.C. Jackson’s season in 2022, the Pats would have collected an extra third-round this year. (Instead, they get a fourth.)
So, if it looks like Jakobi Meyers is going to get, say, a four-year, $60 million deal somewhere this off-season, New England is probably going to let him walk and just take the draft capital. The team will also be rooting for guys like Isaiah Wynn, Nelson Agholor and Damien Harris to make some money elsewhere and steal them an extra pick in the comp formula.
It’s a cold-blooded game, but knowing the balance between retaining players and taking the picks is key to building a team. That’s probably also why you don’t see spending sprees like 2021 too often.