Why Bo Horvat should be the top dream-big trade target for Bruins

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Let’s make one thing clear right off the bat: Barring a major injury to one of their best players, the Bruins do not need to make a major trade before the March 3 deadline in order to win the Stanley Cup this season.

They are the deepest, best team in the NHL, and they’re currently the clear Cup favorites because of it. They have the best top-nine forward group in the league, one that is so deep that they can put Taylor Hall on their third line and still have a very good top six. On defense, they have arguably the best top four, with the Matt Grzelcyk-Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm-Brandon Carlo pairings both humming along at elite levels. They have the best goaltending in the NHL.

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When they’re healthy, there are no holes in the Bruins’ 20-man roster -- certainly not at the top or in the middle of it. That, combined with the fact that they have minimal cap space to work with, is why general manager Don Sweeney’s most likely course of action is going to be to add depth. You can never have too many NHL-caliber defensemen for the playoffs, a lesson the Bruins have learned in recent years, and another depth forward wouldn’t hurt either.

“You’ve got to hope you stay healthy, and I think we have a good hockey team,” Sweeney said Saturday night. “I think we’re deep, but we’re probably going to have to continue to add and supplement. We’ve been blending in some of the players that have played particularly well down in Providence and earned an opportunity, so we’re going to continue to evaluate that if the opportunity presents itself.

“There haven’t been a lot of trades up until this point. We’ll have to see going forward. It’ll take some creativity for clubs like our own that have some cap challenges, but chances are that most of the teams that are hopefully going to get an opportunity to play in the playoffs generally have cap challenges, and we’re no different. We’re going to try to do our best to put the best team we possibly can.”

The Bruins have already been linked to veteran Canucks defenseman Luke Schenn, with The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reporting on Monday that he has heard the Bruins “have already had a chat with Vancouver about him.” He would be a cheap, physical seventh or eighth D option. He also has Cup-winning experience, having just played that role on the Lightning’s back-to-back title teams in 2020 and 2021.

If the Bruins are thinking about making a much bigger move, though, they can keep chatting with Vancouver, because the perfect target would be Bo Horvat. He is No. 1 on pretty much every trade deadline big board right now, and it seems very likely he’ll be moved given that he and the woeful Canucks don’t seem to be making any progress in extension talks.

First, the big if: Horvat is the perfect target *if* the Bruins can sign him to an extension after trading for him. Horvat is an unrestricted free agent after the season, but it’s going to take premium assets to acquire him regardless of his contract status.

The Bruins don’t have many premium prospects, and they would be reluctant to trade away more premium draft picks. They’ve already gone without a first-round pick in three of the last five drafts due to other win-now trades, and they’re already without their second-round picks in the next two drafts thanks to last season’s Hampus Lindholm trade.

But Horvat could be worth premium assets, which could mean something like a first-round pick plus top prospect Fabian Lysell, if the Bruins lock him up long-term like they did with Lindholm. He would give them an embarrassment of riches up front for this season (with Horvat possibly shifting to wing), and he would potentially give them their No. 1 center of the future.

Horvat, 27, is having a career year. He is tied for fourth in the NHL with 30 goals to go along with 18 assists in 43 games. He is not quite an elite playmaker like David Krejci or an elite defensive forward like Patrice Bergeron, but he is a committed two-way player, an elite finisher and an elite faceoff man. He’s also team captain in Vancouver. Especially if he’s surrounded by great wingers, which he would be in Boston for at least the next few years as long as David Pastrnak’s extension eventually gets done, Horvat can be the No. 1 center on a very good team.

Bo Horvat's analytics card via @JFreshHockey
Bo Horvat's analytics card via @JFreshHockey Photo credit @JFreshHockey

Combine him with Pavel Zacha, whom the Bruins just signed to a four-year extension over the weekend, in the No. 2 hole, and suddenly remaining competitive after the looming retirements of Bergeron and Krejci doesn’t seem quite so impossible.

In addition to the cost in terms of assets to get Horvat, there is also of course the cost in terms of salary. Horvat is making $5.5 million this season, which is actually a bargain for a player of his caliber. It’s still a salary the Bruins would need help to fit in, though. They currently have under $100,000 in cap space and would need to move salary out and/or have the Canucks and possibly even a third team retain salary (the Canucks could retain up to 50%, and a third team could retain another 50% of what’s left). Either or both of those moves would likely cost more assets.

The Bruins would then have to give Horvat a hefty raise on an extension. He has reportedly been seeking more than $8 million per year. If he gets to the open market, it’s possible the number would go even higher than that. The Bruins are currently projected to have around $22 million in cap space this offseason, but that is with just six forwards signed and -- they hope -- a new Pastrnak contract still to come. Sweeney would have his hands full trying to find a way to fit both Pastrnak and Horvat and still fill out the rest of the roster.

Neither trading for Horvat nor extending him would be easy, which is why we think it’s a long shot at this point. But opportunities to acquire a center like Horvat in his prime are rare, and the Bruins should at least be exploring the possibility as they look to the future in addition to obviously being in win-now mode. Detroit’s Dylan Larkin would be another player who fits the same mold if he ends up being available, but most analysts still seem to expect him and the Red Wings to eventually get an extension done.

Adding depth is the far more likely course of action for the Bruins, but if they’re thinking about swinging for the fences, Horvat should be their No. 1 target.

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