With apologies to Carson Wentz in Washington and Matt Ryan in Indianapolis, those two moves didn't create new potential champions. The Commanders can't expect a mistake-prone Wentz to elevate them, and Ryan is a limited form of his previous MVP self. Davante Adams just missed out on cracking the top-five, merely because his addition also doesn't push the Raiders all the way to Super Bowl contender. He still has Derek Carr throwing him the ball, the fourth quarterback in a loaded AFC West they'd have to climb out of.
No. 5: Tyreek Hill (KC to MIA) -- This ranking has less to do with the Cheetah's new team than his old one. Does Hill's defection to South Beach mean the Chiefs are no longer a Super Bowl 57 favorite? The types of game-changing plays Hill created won't be recreated easily, if at all, for a team that's hosted four straight AFC title games. But the Chiefs signed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency, plus they own four picks in the first two rounds of next month's draft. Hill doesn't make the Dolphins a contender, although it does eliminate any excuses for mediocre play from Tua Tagovailoa. It may weaken the Chiefs enough to knock them down as the conference's dominant force.
No. 4: J.C. Jackson (NE to LAC) -- Perhaps a surprising ranking ahead of some bigger names, and for a player with only one Pro Bowl to his name. But the former Patriots corner is coming off an All-Pro season, and teams with star pass rusher Khalil Mack on the Chargers' defense. Los Angeles has one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and a highly-productive supporting cast. But how do you slow down the rest of a powerful AFC West? Yes, these two additions will help in big ways, and on paper, the Chargers look like one of the conference's best. Problem is, we've said that throughout the last 20 years, and it's equated to zero Super Bowls.
No. 3: La'el Collins (DAL to CIN) -- An offensive lineman cracks the top-three? Yes, because of where we went and the reason why. The Bengals are coming off their first AFC crown since 1988, and their biggest vulnerability was the offensive line. Joe Burrow was hounded throughout the playoffs, and just slightly better protection may have brought home the Lombardi Trophy in the Super Bowl. Collins has been one of the best lineman in football, and he was courted hard by Burrow. If Collins, alongside other additions to the line, can develop into a sturdy group, Cincinnati will once again be AFC powerbrokers. If he's a bust, they may wait another 35 years to return to the Super Bowl.
No. 2: Deshaun Watson (HOU to CLE) -- The Browns must now be considered title contenders after the haul given up to the Texans. They have the ground attack, offensive line, and defense to play in January. They were just missing high-level quarterback play, They have that now, with a player who led the league in passing for a 4-12 team in 2020. If Watson continues as an elite passer, he's well worth the draft picks traded and the huge contract he signed. But Cleveland has to navigate his potential suspension and the public fallout before they can book a Super Bowl trip. If they do, they've turned into an AFC power.
No. 1: Russell Wilson (SEA to DEN) -- The Broncos have the skill position talent and defense to be excellent. They simply haven't had the quarterback. No excuses anymore. Wilson comes to the juggernaut AFC West to unlock the Denver offense. The defense has been a top-five unit in the league at times, and Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick have big-time potential. The last time the Broncos brought in a future Hall of Famer, Peyton Manning, they won the division four straight times, went to two Super Bowls, and reset the record book. It might not be that dynamic right off the bat, but Wilson immediately makes the Broncos a true threat.