Cold Open
The hot takes following Bill Belichick's Army-Navy gameplan on Monday night are plentiful, and the Bills are getting a lot of heat for losing to a Patriots team that simply didn't throw the ball. Sean McDermott doesn't want to hear about the Belichick gameplan, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde don't want to hear that they should feel embarrassed. They're actually right. Yes, they gave up one huge run that went for a touchdown and then a two-point conversion. Outside of those plays, it was just a matter of field position and two field goal drives with the wind.
Belichick manipulated wind position, something no other coach in football would really prepare for. It's why he's the greatest head coach we've seen in our lives. With that said, Monday wasn't playoff football weather. It wasn't just freezing temperatures, or snow flurries. No, that game featured 50-mph wind gusts. Not exactly standard postseason conditions.
Belichick proved he doesn't trust his rookie quarterback in those conditions. Perhaps the Bills put too much trust in Josh Allen to sling it. Monday night was a rarity in the NFL, not a sign that Buffalo can't handle playoff weather. The truth is, the Patriots need to beat the Bills again in New England, where they're no longer invincible. The Patriots also need to go to Indianapolis and beat the Colts, which currently have the best running back in football. If they lose both of those games, the Bills will win the AFC East. Being amazed that the Patriots are here again, in December as a contender, is fair. But focus on the bigger picture, and understand this team still has plenty to prove before they're crowned as "back."
Ten-Yard Gain
No. 1: Urban Meyer has essentially robbed us of being excited about Trevor Lawrence. From his dancing at that Ohio restaurant, to the mishandling of James Robinson, the Jaguars' season has been chock-full of losses and controversies. These issues have hindered the ability to fully examine the most-hyped quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. Is it Lawrence's fault the Jags stink? Who really knows. Would Lawrence be as good as Mac Jones if he were in New England? Probably, but again, who knows. We don't know anything about Lawrence, thanks to Meyer's dysfunction in Jacksonville.
No. 2: One step forward, two steps back for the Raiders. After an improbable Thanksgiving win in Dallas, the Raiders used their extra time off to regress offensively and lose at home to the Washington Football Team. The Raiders' lack of home field advantage will never go away, and as a result, their annual December swoon is back on.
No. 3: Before last weekend, the Eagles' best quarterback was on the bench. I haven't been a fan of Gardner Minshew. But against the Jets, he was able to make plays through the air, unlike Jalen Hurts. The performance made it clear how much better-suited Philadelphia would be with all they've invested at the receiver position.
No. 4: If Bengals fans don't care about this team, with this quarterback, will they ever care again? The amount of empty seats for a Joe Burrow-led team playing the Chargers in an enormous playoff-esque matchup was alarming. The Bengals are in Cincinnati, but if fans don't care, why are we so quick to say the Jaguars should be next in line for relocation? Fans in San Diego and Oakland were robbed of teams despite going to games.
No. 5: Jared Goff had a fine moment, and in doing so, avoided being a punching bag for the rest of his career. At times, Dan Orlovsky is taken less seriously as a football analyst because he quarterbacked the 0-16 Lions. He owns it and deserves credit. Quarterbacking the 0-16-1 Lions, mixed with the Rams ever winning a Super Bowl without Goff, would've made him a lifelong joke. Instead, he made a thrilling and relieving last-second touchdown pass that Lions fans will remember forever.
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No. 6: The reports that Ben Roethlisberger will walk away after this season shouldn't be breaking news, but it's odd how he threw some cold water on it. I understand not wanting the attention to be on a farewell tour when a playoff spot is still within reach. And if that's the case, Roethlisberger should keep this to himself and not even people in the organization. Where there's smoke, there's fire with Big Ben. This is it, and everyone already knows.
No. 7: John Harbaugh can defend going for two because of his cornerback's injury all he wants -- a colossal mistake of allowing ego and in-the-moment feelings get in the way of reality. The Ravens, even without corners, were the better team and the better offense. The Steelers' offense isn't a threat to beat bad corners. Baltimore should've played for overtime, and it may cost them a crucial playoff seeding.
No. 8: The Texans rank 32nd in total offense, 32nd in rushing offense, and 32nd in passing offense. David Culley was thrown to the wolves, having to coach this franchise. Throw in the gamble of not trading Deshaun Watson before his legal troubles, and watching the Texans is like watching another team's bye week.
No. 9: Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, and Cam Newton were the four quarterbacks in the deck Joe Brady was dealt to start his career as an NFL offensive coordinator. To put it mildly, Matt Rhule firing Brady seems fishy. The Panthers without Christian McCaffrey are inept, and this isn't on Brady.
No. 10: Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are lurking as January approaches. The debates about the Cardinals, Packers, and even the "Super Team" Rams are fun. The defending champions are led by a quarterback who just won't go away and can flip the switch on with ease. Tampa should still be the favorites in the NFC.
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Five Games to Chew On
Cowboys at Washington: I'm not a believer in Washington. But they are winning, however ugly it may be. Now they come home to play the Cowboys, and Dak Prescott just seems a little bit off. A win for the team in burgundy on Sunday would suddenly put pressure on Dallas, which would be clinging to a one-game lead in the NFC East.
49ers at Bengals: The 49ers' loss to the Seahawks wasn't shocking. But it did slow all momentum they had built up and bring them back down to the lower portion of the NFC playoff picture. The Bengals can't afford back-to-back home losses against playoff contenders. The loser here is going to find themselves in real trouble, with unnecessary stress to make the playoffs.
Ravens at Browns: Are the Ravens running out of gas? Maybe. The Browns are impossible to figure out, week in and week out. It's now or never, as they try to push themselves over the .500 mark with or without Baker Mayfield playing good football. If Cleveland survives on Sunday, this could be an interesting turning point in a tight AFC North race.
Rams at Cardinals: I can't make a case that the Rams' problems are solved because they kicked the crap out of the Jaguars. Every team should do that. Matthew Stafford's injuries didn't just heal. Odell Beckham Jr. didn't suddenly become the best receiver in football again. Sony Michel is now the starting running back. The Cardinals have proved their worth, and they can basically lock up a division title and send the Rams back to doubting themselves.
Bills at Buccaneers: It seems as though the Bucs are just having fun waiting for the playoffs, while scoring a ton of points. The pressure feels off. As for Buffalo, the pressure's on. They'll welcome warm, throwing weather in Tampa. Most of the country will see this game, so it's an opportunity for the Bills to get their season back. If they beat the champs on the road, will the hot takes about the Pats clinching a division disappear?
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My Picks
Back on the winning side, with a 2-1 week. I'm 24-15 overall. For this week:
49ers (-1) at Bengals: The injury to Burrow's pinky on his throwing hand is real. It clearly ballooned and affected him against the Chargers in the second half of last week's loss. The Bengals also present zero home field advantage against a solid opponent. In six games at Cincinnati this season, the Bengals have just two wins against the spread. The 49ers had a minor blip against a Seahawks team that was due for some good fortune last week.
Titans (-8.5) vs. Jaguars: Laying big numbers against the Jaguars has become a winning ticket for me the last couple of weeks, so I stay on the tracks again. Another week, another distraction from Meyer, as his benching (but blaming it on injury) of Robinson even has Lawrence in disagreement. The Titans are coming off their bye week, and despite injuries still mounting on offense, find themselves in an important game they can't afford to lose. The magic number for the Titans will be scoring 27 points. Tennessee is 6-0 against the spread in games with 26-plus points scored.
Browns (-2.5) vs. Ravens: The Ravens are out of corners -- Harbaugh said so himself when explaining why the team went for two against the Steelers in crunchtime. Mayfield may be on a farewell tour with Cleveland, coming off a bye. The Browns' playoff chances are still alive, they'll hope Nick Chubb can run through the Ravens. Trends would say Baltimore is the play here, since the Browns are 1-4 against the spread when favored by 2.5 points or more. This is a classic gut play in "Up The Gut" -- I sense that the Ravens may be running out of gas.
Football Food of the Week
Bacon-Ranch Cheeseball. Shoutout to the haters. Bacon. Cheese. Balls. I'm playing "Football Food of the Week" bingo, and winning with this recipe sent to us by a listener and reader. The year of the ranch may be back. Ranch seasoning, cream cheese, shredded cheddar, and chopped bacon all come together as one. The most underrated small food item of the holiday season is the Ritz cracker. It's used here as the vehicle delivering this ranchy, cheesy ball right into your mouth. Check out the recipe here: https://southerneatsandgoodies.com/bacon-ranch-cheeseball/
Thanks for reading as always, and enjoy Week 14. You can follow me on Twitter and Instagram @MrazCBS.