With the No. 30 pick in the 2022 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft, the San Francisco Giants took Reggie Crawford, a two-way player out of the University of Connecticut who plays first base and pitches. He is the Giants own attempt at a poor man's Shohei Ohtani, though Crawford is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Anything that comes next is pure speculation that no one could possibly accurately predict.
But oh how nice it would be to have some sort of crystal ball that can answer such questions. Just peer into it and ask it any question about the future (baseball related of course, this is a crystal ball with a focused skill set) and be shown future highlights of Crawford hitting walk-off dingers to win the Giants the World Series, or maybe even striking out the final batter and getting a Joey Bart hug.
Well, it just so turns out I happen to have procured myself such an item. A crystal ball that can tell me with great certainty what will become of the Giants’ first-round pick. But my crystal ball is not the deluxe version that you can buy on Amazon, that cost way too much. The one I have instead will lay out several POSSIBLE scenarios, one of which will probably come true in some way, shape or form.
One thing the crystal seemed absolutely sure about was that Reggie Crawford likely will NOT make the Hall of Fame.
The Giants have drafted 78 players in the first round or in the first compensation round since the current draft format was instilled in 1965, none of them have made the Hall of Fame. In fact, in the 57-year history of the current MLB First-Year Player Draft, the Giants have selected ZERO players who have made the Hall of Fame. This is not to knock on the Giants ability to find talent. For reference, the A’s have drafted only two hall of fame players in the first round: Reggie Jackson and Rickey Henderson. The Dodgers have not drafted any yet either. They did select Tom Seaver in the 10th round of the 1965 draft, but Seaver declined to sign.
Here are the different tiers where Crawford might end up, according to my crystal ball.
The Gold Standard (6)
These are the players of which legends are told of. They did everything the Giants and their fans could have wanted and more. They helped the Giants win pennants and championships. They are the players whose faces adorn t-shirts and ball caps. They play in All-Star Games and win awards and do all the good baseball things.
Will Clark: 56.5 WAR, helped Giants win the 1989 NL Pennant, will get his number retired soon.
Matt Williams: 46.6 WAR, helped Giants win the 1989 NL Pennant, led league in homeruns in 1994
Buster Posey: 41.8 WAR, three-time world champion, 2012 NL MVP, is Buster Posey
Madison Bumgarner: 36.8 WAR, three-time world champion, 2014 World Series MVP
Matt Cain: 29.1 WAR, threw a perfect game, three-time world champion, started and won the 2012 MLB All-Star Game
Tim Lincecum: 19.6 WAR, back-to-back Cy Young Awards, three-time world champion, started the 2009 MLB All-Star Game
Good Ball Players (5)
These players were not exactly great over the long run, but still provided value to the organization over a brief period of time. Most of these players either fizzled out or left via free agency to have respectable careers elsewhere. Players like this will leave fans with a few memories, and maybe will be the answer to a GEICO trivia question that Mike Krukow asks during the fifth inning of a mid-August game in Milwaukee or something. You will get that answer right, and after that, maybe you get lucky and hear Duane Kuiper say, “That is a tough question there. Props to you if you got it right.” And you did get it right.
Joe Panik (2014-19): Helped the Giants win the 2014 World Series, was in the All-Star Game in 2015, injured his back and slowly fell out of baseball.
Gary Mathews (1972-76): Won the NL Rookie of the Year award in 1973. Hit .287/.367/.443 in five seasons before going to the Atlanta Braves.
Noah Lowry (2004-07): Showed promise as a future rotation piece after going 14-8 with a 3.92 ERA in 2007. Shoulder and rib injuries derailed his career before the 2008 season. Posted a 9.9 WAR over three and a half seasons.
Royce Clayton (1991-95): Clayton was the starting shortstop for the 1993 Giants that won 103 games and nothing else. He hit .282/.331/.372 that year, good for 2.4 WAR. Played for 10 more teams over a career that lasted 17 years.
Scott Garrelts: Garrelts played his whole career with the Giants, spanning from 1982 through 1991. He was a pillar of the rotation in the late 80’s, and led the National League in ERA in 1989, had a 14-5 record that year, and helped pitch the Giants into the World Series. He retired with a career record of 69-53. Nice.
Alternative Value (18)
This is the category that Crawford may be most likely destined for, as it is the category that, in theory, offers the most value. That value is acquired via trades. In the NFL or NBA, a draft pick is more valuable, as a draft pick represents an asset that can be turned into a player who provides immediate or near-future value. In baseball, draft picks become more valuable after the player has been drafted, as that pick now represents a prospect who, under the right conditions, can flourish.
This is why Farhan Zaidi claims the best thing to do in the draft is draft by best available, not need. That best available player could one day be flipped to another team in a trade that better suits a specific need, like pitching, that the draft cannot similarly provide.
Most of these players either never played for the Giants or played very little with the Giants. Their value was being traded to another team to provide a more immediate upgrade. Whether or not that trade actually provided the value the Giants were searching for is a whole other matter.
Mark Grant: traded to the Padres in a package that got the Giants Dave Dravecky, Craig Lefferts and Kevin Mitchell during the 1987 season
Drafted: 1981
Career WAR: 2.2
War Acquired: 24.3
WAR Acquired: +22.1
Value Acquired: The Padres got absolutely HOSED on this trade. Mitchell became a two-time All-Star and won the MVP in 1989 and provided the Giants with one of the three greatest catches in the history of the organization. Lefferts was a reliever who had a 2.88 ERA for the Giants in three seasons. Dravecky was worth 2.9 WAR for the Giants before tragedy ended his career, but has since become a cultural icon in the organization and is a staple at team reunions.
Grant was sent to the Padres along with Chris Brown, Keith Comstock and Mark Davis. Brown and Comstock were not worth much, but both Grant and Davis were respectable pieces in the Padres rotation in the early 90s.
Christian Arroyo: traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for Evan Longoria before the 2018 season
Drafted: 2013
Career WAR: -.1
WAR Acquired: 6.5
WAR Value: +6.6
Value Acquired: Longoria was once one of the Giants best offensive weapons since he was acquired prior to the 2018 season. The Giants have also been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball in that time so “Best Offensive Weapon on the Giants” is not really a title to brag about. Longo has been worth 6.5 WAR during his time in San Francisco.
Charlie Culberson: traded to the Colorado Rockies for Marco Scutaro in 2012
Drafted: 2007
Career WAR: -1.0
WAR Acquired: +5
Value Acquired: It is rare to see intra-division trades go so well for one team, but the Giants benefitted massively from the Colorado Rockies thinking that Culberson was worth a shot. Scutaro gave the Giants 4 WAR and was a key player in their 2012 World Series title, even getting the game winning base knock in Game 4.
Phil Bickford: traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for Will Smith in 2016
Drafted: 2015
Career WAR: 0
War Acquired: 3.4
WAR Value: +3.4
Will Smith, the Giants lone All-Star in 2019, was worth about 3.4 WAR during his Giants tenure, which is remarkable when you consider he lost a year to Tommy John surgery. The Giants declined to trade him at the trade deadline that year, and as a result got a second round compensation pick that the Giants used to draft Jimmy Glowenke, a shortstop out of Dallas Baptist University. Should Glowenke succeed in the big leagues, that is just more value added on to Bickford’s trade.
Marcus Jensen: traded to the Detroit Tigers for Brian Johnson during the 1997 season
Drafted: 1990
Career WAR: -.8
WAR Acquired: 2.1
WAR Value: +2.9
Value Acquired: Simply put, if this trade does not happen, then this does not happen, and society is worse off because of it. And when you look at society today, well, just be thankful Brian Johnson happened. Jensen, who is currently the A’s bullpen coach, would go on to have an extremely forgettable career.
Tim Alderson: traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Freddy Sanchez in 2009
Drafted: 2007
Career WAR: 0
WAR Acquired: 2.9
WAR Value: +2.9
The big debate amongst Giants fans in 2008 and 2009 was who will eventually join Lincecum and Cain in the rotation, and the choice was narrowed down to a pair of starting pitchers selected in the first round of the 2007 draft: Alderson and some dude named Madison Bumgarner. There were legitimate arguments to be made that Alderson was the better pitcher to hold on to in the long run. There were legitimate worries about how Bumgarner might develop as a pitcher. In fairness, he was only 20 at the time and probably had just seen a building that was 10 stories tall for the first time that season.
Alderson never made the big leagues, and Sanchez provided the perfect amount of offensive spark and defensive prowess to help the Giants win the 2010 World Series. Fan will spend ages telling tales of his defensive wizardry in Game 4 against the Rangers. Backing up Bumgarner. Who very well could have been the pitcher who was traded away to get Sanchez. Baseball is funny.
Mike Remlinger: traded to the Seattle Mariners for Bill Swift and Michael Jackson after the 1991 season
Drafted: 1987
Career WAR: 10.6
WAR Acquired: 11.7
WAR Value: +1.1
Remlinger went on to have a solid career as a reliever. Swift, meanwhile, posted a 9.9 WAR in three seasons with the Giants. He led the league in ERA in 1992, then went 21-8 in 1993, the last time, along with John Burkett, the Giants had a 20-game winner. He finished his Giants career with a 39-19 record and a 2.70 ERA.
Jackson was a reliever who provided 2.8 WAR over three seasons with the Giants. In 184 appearances, he threw 201 innings, had a record of 15-14 and an ERA of 2.99.
Kevin Mitchell was also included in this trade.
Dante Powell: traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Alan Embree after the 1998 season.
Drafted: 1994
Career WAR: -.2
WAR Acquired: .3
WAR Value: +.5
Value Acquired: Embree was a middle reliever for the Giants for three seasons from 1999-2001. That’s it. That’s what he did.
Jacob Cruz: traded in a package to the Cleveland Indians for Shawon Dunston, Jose Mesa and Alvin Morman
Drafted: 1994
Career WAR: .3
WAR Acquired: .6
WAR Value: +.3
Value Acquired: Dunston is the jewel of this crown, providing the Giants with four solid seasons and also just being an incredibly fun person to have around. So much did the Giants enjoy having Dunston around that they hired him on as a coach. He is currently in charge of monitoring video replay for the Giants and is a key player in deciding whether or not to challenge a play. Cruz was sent to Cleveland with pitcher Steve Reed. Neither did much for the Indians.
Kyle Crick: traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Andrew McCutchen before the 2018 season
Drafted: 2001
Career WAR: 1.8
WAR Acquired: 1.9
WAR Value: +.1
McCutchen was worth 1.9 WAR in just under five months as a Giant before being flipped to the Yankees for Abiatal Avelino. He will always have that walk-off homerun against the Dodgers through. Walk-off homeruns against the Dodgers are a great way to establish value as a Giant.
Jason Grilli and Nate Bump: traded to the Florida Marlins for Livan Hernandez during the 1999 season
Drafted: 1997 (Grilli) 1998 (Bump)
Career WAR: 4.6 (Grilli) -.7 (Bump)
WAR Acquired: 3.9
WAR Value: 0
Value Acquired: Hernandez was the Marlins’ postseason hero, and was brought to the Giants to do the same. What followed was three-and-a-half years of below par pitching, culminating in him saving the Giants season in Game 4 for the 2002 National League Division Series against the Braves, only to take the loss in Game 7 of the World Series against the Angels a few weeks later. Hernandez was worth 3.9 WAR in that time, and led the league in losses in 2002. He was 45-45 with a 4.44 ERA with the Giants.
Grilli was a total journeyman pitcher, playing for nine teams across 19 MLB seasons. He retired with a 34-47 record and a 4.22 ERA. Bump made two appearances for the Marlins in the 2003 NLCS against the Chicago Cubs, giving up two runs in three innings. He won a ring a few weeks later.
Jerome Williams and David Aardsma: traded to the Chicago Cubs during the 2005 season for LaTroy Hawkins
Drafted: 1999 (Williams) and 2003 (Aardsma)
Career WAR: 3.5 (Williams) 1.9 (Aardsma) 5.4 total
WAR Acquired: .4
WAR Value: -5
Value Acquired: Hawkins was brought in during a forgettable 2005 season to support a bullpen that needed more than LaTroy Hawkins to stay afloat. The Giants got 37 innings across 45 appearances of whatever from Hawkins, who was 32 at the time, before leaving after that season to play for 10 more years.
Aardsma made his debut with the Giants in early 2004, but after the trade was not called up until the 2006 season. He bounced around seven more teams over the next 9 seasons. Williams played for another 10 years and pitched for seven teams as well, but never was able to recapture the talent he showed in his rookie campaign of 2003.
Chris Stratton: traded to the Angels for Williams Jerez
Drafted: 2012
Career WAR: 1.2
WAR Acquired: 0
WAR Value: -1.2
Stratton was flipped for Jerez in late March of 2019. He was an average pitcher at best for the Giants, but did more for them in three years than Jerez did in the 6 games that he appeared in Orange and Black. The Angels though got all of five starts out of Stratton. The real winner in this trade: The Pirates, where both players eventually ended up.
Terry Mulholland: traded to the Philadelphia Phillies for Steve Bedrosian in 1989
Drafted: 1984
Career WAR: 11.1
WAR Acquired: 0
WAR Value: -11.1
Bedrosian was acquired for the 1989 stretch run, saving 17 games and helping the Giants win the 1989 NL Pennant. He left the Giants after the 1990 season.
Mulholland had a 20-year career where he went 124-142 with a 4.41 ERA. He made pit stops with the Giants again in 1995 and 97.
Boof Bonser: traded to the Minnesota Twins in a package for AJ Pierzynski.
Drafted: 2000
Career WAR: -.5
Bonser was part of the infamous AJ Pierzynski trade. Forget that his name is Boof Bonser, the trade is enough to focus on in terms of how awful it was.
Zach Wheeler: traded to the New York Mets for Carlos Beltran in 2011
Drafted: 2009
Career WAR: 22.3
WAR Acquired: 1.2
WAR Value: -21.1
This is a trade that was controversial at the time, and has done little to age well since. The Giants were desperate for offense in 2011 after Buster Posey's injury, and gave up Wheeler, their No. 1 prospect at the time, to bring in Beltran, who was one of the best postseason hitters in the game. The trade worked out for neither team, as Beltran, after battling injuries, left the Giants after two months. Meanwhile, Wheeler battled injuries for much of his time with the Mets before signing a massive contract with the Phillies and finishing second in the Cy Young voting last year. Sure would be nice to have him in the Giants rotation right about now.
Hey, They Played Baseball! (7)
These players had a brief moment in the big leagues, maybe a big hit or two, and then disappeared for existence, nothing but a distant memory at this point. Some of these players were traded but not for anything worth mentioning.
Dave Rader: 1967, 4.1 WAR
Al Gallagher: 1965, 3.0 WAR (first Giant ever drafted in the current MLB First-Year Draft format)
Bob Reynolds: 1966, 2.7 WAR
Brad Hennessey: 2001, 2.6 WAR(was the closer before the Giants figured out Brian Wilson could do it)
Rob Dressler: 1972, 2.5 WAR
Conor Gillaspie: 2008, 2.2 WAR (will always have New York)
Calvin Murray: 1992, 2.1 WAR
Whiffs (21)
These players the Giants straight up blew it on. Either they never made the big leagues, or when they did they were terrible. These players were not traded away. They just faded into the void of baseball. But these players had a considerable amount of hype too, which makes it even worse that they didn’t get anywhere. Most of these guys could not even be moved in a trade and were just straight up released. These guys at least played an inning in The Show however, either with the Giants or elsewhere.
Tyler Beede: 2014
Chris Shaw: 2015
Gary Brown: 2010
Nick Noonan: 2007
Jackson Williams: 2007
Emmanuel Burriss: 2006
Todd Linden: 2001
Kurt Ainsworth: 1999
Tony Torcato: 1998
Joe Fontenot: 1995
Steve Soderstrom: 1993
Adam Hyzdu: 1990
Steve Hosey: 1989
Ted Wood: 1988
Alan Cockrell: 1984
Steve Stanicek: 1982
Jessie Reid: 1980
Johnnie LeMaster: 1973
Frank Riccelli: 1971
John D’Acquisto: 1970
Mike Phillips: 1969
Never made the big leagues (13)
The Giants have drafted 15 players in the first round who never played an inning at the big-league level. This list does not include players drafted since 2015, as their careers still need some time to grow.
Wendell Fairley: 2007
Craig Whitaker: 2003
Arturo McDowell: 1998
Chris Jones: 1998
Jeff Urban: 1998
Dan McKinley: 1997
Steve Whitaker: 1991
Eric Christopherson: 1990
Bob Cummings: 1978
Craig Landis: 1977
Mark Kuecker: 1976
Ted Barnicle: 1975
Terry Lee: 1974
Did not sign (1)
Sometimes you cannot come to an agreement and the prospect walks without signing. Luckily, Crawford has already said he intends to sign.
Rick Luecken: 1979
Matt White: 1996
TBD (5)
These guys were drafted in the last few years and have not had enough time to show what kind of baseball players they may become.
Hunter Bishop (2019), Heliot Ramos (2017), Patrick Bailey (2020), Will Bednar (2021) and Crawford (2022)
Joey Bart (1)
Yes, I am giving Bart his own category as he looks to establish himself in the big leagues. The jury is still out on whether or not Bart has a successful future coming as a big leaguer. Ever since he returned from Triple-A Sacramento to work on his swing, he has been hitting .276/.344/.552 with two impressive home runs and one double that should be a home run but isn’t because of a poopy fan. The Giants are 7-4 since his return.
Final Breakdown
11 players (14%) who provided good or better value on the field
18 players (23%) who were traded and brought back something sign
7 players (9%) who had a cup of coffee in the big leagues
21 players (27%) who straight up bombed
13 players (17%) who failed to make the big leagues or provide any trade value
2 players (3%) who did not sign
5 players (6%) who we are still waiting on meaningful results from
1 player (1%) who is Joey Bart