We don't have to pretend with the 49ers. Not this year.
The signs have been there. The signs were there in training camp, with holdouts and halfhearted practices, when Brandon Aiyuk was about to be traded, then had Kyle Shanahan rush into John Lynch's office to halt the trade talks. They've been there since Week 4, when James Conner ran the 49ers into a second-straight divisional collapse. They've been there since this team was throttled by the Chiefs and indicated they might never beat the Chiefs. They've been there since it became clear Christian McCaffrey wouldn't fix this offense.
The signs have been there. Sunday was an obvious result, perhaps the most obvious result of the season. The 38-10 loss was a no-doubter. This is an ailing 49ers team that has failed to beat a single team (at the time of the win) above .500. The Bills were coming off a bye and destined to throttle them.
Now McCaffrey, with a PCL injury, is likely done for the season. Nick Bosa and Trent Williams missed the last two weeks. Brandon Aiyuk and Javon Hargrave highlight the season-ending injuries.
The bill of goods the 49ers tried to sell us on — a triumphant reclamation like in 2021 or 2022, when they, it must be noted failed to go to the Super Bowl — was always a false one. This had all the markings of a 2020 redux.
Simply put, the 49ers are not a good football team. Kyle Shanahan finally admitted that Sunday night, when asked if the 49ers lack "fight."
"We're not as good of a team as those past teams," Shanahan said. "So that's kind of how I look at it. We're not the same team at all. Every team, each year, is different. But I'm not going to say that this team is the same as last year's team or we're just not fighting as hard. We got a bunch of different guys out there. We've been trying to find our way since the beginning. Haven't quite found that yet. There's still a lot of season left and we expect to play better. But I'm not going to say that our team doesn't have fight."
When Shanahan admits that, he is stating the obvious for the first time.
Let's just run through what, exactly is wrong with this team.
On the offensive line, the 49ers have looked weak, especially at center and left guard. Dominick Puni has been very good, but he's had increasing rookie moments, too. (Colton McKivitz has quietly had a solid season). They get attacked up the middle on either sides of their lines. No team in the NFL gets run at up the middle more than the 49ers.
When your spine — the middle of both lines — is weak, you are weak.
On offense, they have missed key blocks constantly, failing to spring explosive runs. When they do, they are often called back for penalties. Deebo Samuel looks nothing like his old self when trying to cut side to side, and they asked a lot of McCaffrey before his injury. This is a franchise that bet on playmakers, didn't block for them, and found out that if their playmakers are not at their best versions, those negative plays don't magically become positives.
Their protections have been brutal, especially in the first half of the season. If the protection was called correctly, it was sometimes not executed correctly. An assignment missed or a matchup was lost.
Because the 49ers run an offense with "hots" — rather than trying to protect against all eligible rushers, the quarterback throws "hot" to a receiver when there's pressure — teams turn up the pressure — frequently with overload blitz to target one side of the offensive line and those faulty protections — on the 49ers more than any other team. On third-and-mediums or third-and-longs, Brock Purdy has had to get the ball out quickly, often resulting in plays directed at option routes short of the sticks.
Especially with McCaffrey out, teams ripped off the Chiefs' Super Bowl gameplan. They played aggressive man coverage against a team with a lack of man beater receivers, most prominently, Samuel. Purdy lacked chemistry with Aiyuk, who dropped the ball an absurd amount, and got injured as he was turning a corner. Jauan Jennings has been a revelation, but isn't much of a vertical threat. Kittle has been Kittle, the best tight end in football (though he's missed a few more blocking assignments than you would expect).
Purdy, a quarterback whose best traits have been his pocket presence, anticipation and ability to read the field, had to scramble more and more because nothing was open. If something was open, the protection broke down or was never there. Or, if those two things were right, he didn't see or didn't trust it, because those two things left him failing to trust what he saw.
The defense hasn't been good enough all year. Once Fred Warner suffered a fracture in his ankle against the Patriots, he couldn't hold it together. With Bosa out, there's not enough talent, and either too much or too little experience. De'Vondre Campbell has been poor, and the lack of Dre Greenlaw is glaring. The front can't stop the run. Ji'Ayir Brown, a heady player, hasn't proven he's the long-term answer at safety. The rookies have been asked too much of, but have still mostly answered the call.
Oh, and Nick Sorenson, after that back-to-back 12 men on the field penalty in Green Bay? He hasn't shown enough to stop questions about whether he's the right man for the job. The 49ers haven't innovated schematically, and maybe that's Shanahan's preference, to keep it simple. But they don't have the dudes for that. That may also be true for Kris Kocurek's wide-nine scheme. It may need reevaluation in the offseason.
And that's with their special teams being a disaster. They should probably go looking for a new special teams coordinator, but it's hard to tell if this group would ever be decent given the lack of talent there. That's a result of poor drafting from 2020-2023 and the Trey Lance trade.
So yeah, they got throttled by the Buffalo Bills. Of course they did. The Bills are a great team. The 49ers, as Shanahan admitted, are not.
Now they'll have to attempt to win at minimum, four games down the stretch. They have to beat the Bears, Rams, Dolphins and Cardinals. There's a non-zero chance they could get away with losing to the Lions, but probably not. There's little reason to believe this team is capable enough to pull that off. If they do, I will gladly report on their change in circumstances. But they have shown no reason to believe.
Their only source of optimism is a weak NFC West that may cannibalize itself down the stretch and leave the door open for the 49ers... a team that has perpetually shut that door on itself.
Maybe the better case scenario? They lose out, acquire an improved, top-15 draft pick, and get some rest for a weary, older team, and reap the benefits of a fourth-place schedule next season. They won't want to hear that, but that's the medicine the 49ers probably need to take.
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We don't have to pretend with the 49ers. Not this year.
The signs have been there. Sunday was an obvious result, perhaps the most obvious result of the season.
"We're not as good of a team as those past teams," Shanahan said. "So that's kind of how I look at it. We're not the same team at all. Every team, each year, is different. But I'm not going to say that this team is the same as last year's team or we're just not fighting as hard. We got a bunch of different guys out there. We've been trying to find our way since the beginning. Haven't quite found that yet. There's still a lot of season left and we expect to play better. But I'm not going to say that our team doesn't have fight."
On offense, they have missed key blocks constantly, failing to spring explosive runs. When they do, they are often called back for penalties. Deebo Samuel looks nothing like his old self when trying to cut side to side, and they asked a lot of McCaffrey before his injury. This is a franchise that bet on playmakers, didn't block for them, and found out that if their playmakers are not at their best versions, those negative plays don't magically become positives.
Featured Image Photo Credit: © Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
No one should be surprised about that 49ers loss
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