Football returns to Santa Clara Saturday afternoon. After what has felt like a month of dormancy — it's been nearly three weeks since a meaningful game was played — the 49ers will embark on what they hope to be a two-game run to the Super Bowl for the second time in five years.
They're also a win away from a third-straight NFC title game appearance, this time with a quarterback who can make off-schedule plays and attack the deep third of the field. Here are three things to look for.
Run defense, and Aaron vs. Arik
The Packers are 5-0 this season when Aaron Jones carries the ball 20 or more times. He's averaging 5.67 yards per carry on 21 carries per game, and 5.87 yards per touch over Green Bay's last four games, all wins.
Green Bay is 6-1 in games with at least 124 yards rushing. The team desperately missed Jones for seven games this year — and in others he wasn't at 100 percent — after he suffered a sprained MCL.
Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks spoke to the fact that with Jordan Love helming the Packers, Wilks has seen them get more balance in their run and pass games. That balance has made them less predictable and more dangerous. Jones is a monumental part of that. Love, who has absurd arm talent, has been great in his own right, but is a major beneficiary of Jones.
That brings us to Arik Armstead, who has been out since Week 13 with a knee and foot (plantar fasciitis) injury. San Francisco's run defense has struggled without him. It's meant Javon Kinlaw, one of the worst interior run defenders in the league (ranked 138th in run defense out of 144 qualified defensive tackles by Pro Football Focus), has had to take the mantle.
On the season, the 49ers defense has the 26th-worst EPA (expected points added) against the rush at -0.05. In the 13 weeks with Armstead, the 49ers ranked 21st in rush EPA at -0.06.
That's not a monumental difference, but over 12 games with Armstead in the lineup, the 49ers allowed teams to rush for more than 100 yards three times. In the five weeks without him, they allowed three 100-plus-yard performances, including a nightmare, 234-yard rushing performance from the Arizona Cardinals.
Armstead also plays his best ball in the playoffs.
His sack rate in the playoffs is astounding, with 7.0 of his 40.5 career sacks coming in the postseason. That's an average of 0.78 sacks per game in the playoffs compared to 0.29 sacks per game in the regular season.
He's a difference maker, especially against teams that lean on the run game. If the 49ers want to keep teams from getting comfortable, they need him healthy.
They'll also need someone, likely Chase Young, to step up in the run game with Clelin Ferrell sidelined. Green Bay is not averse to screens, and those edges are a consistent area where teams attack the 49ers.
Joe Barry and explosive opportunities
Google "Joe Barry" from any time before the month of January and nearly every article is an articulation of why Matt LaFleur should fire Barry, his defensive coordinator.
The Packers defense has put some horrific tape on film this season, but in the closing weeks, they have improved substantially, maybe enough to save Barry's job.
Is it recency bias to believe the defense is what they've shown as of late? Or should we believe those results are outliers?
This is a unit, which, a month ago became the only defense in the league to allow 30 points to the 2-15 Carolina Panthers. Those Panthers eclipsed 250 yards passing twice this season, against the Packers (298 yards) and the Seattle Seahawks (334 yards).
To figure out what's real and what's not means getting to the core of how Kyle Shanahan likes to attack defense.
One compelling factor in assessing whether a Shanahan team will dice up a defense is the linebackers (nickels and safeties, especially those who hang around the box, or are employed in "robber" roles are significant, too). Those players have the overwhelming coverage responsibilities over the middle of the field.
While the 49ers are no longer one-trick ponies with Jimmy Garoppolo's black hole *winks, crowd boos* offense over the middle, that area is still their bread and butter.
It's where explosives are most often created in the passing game, because it puts pass-catchers on a platform to rattle off yards after catch.
When your linebackers are non-elite, especially in coverage, you'll usually get cooked by the 49ers.
Let's go back to the 49ers' worst offensive performances of the season, all losses.
Cleveland has arguably the best defense in the league, helmed by Jim Schwartz, with a Pro Bowl linebacker in Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and a pair of solid other backers.
Ivan Pace Jr. had a under-appreciated, outstanding season for Minnesota alongside a resurgent Jordan Hicks. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores dialed it up better than anyone this season, with the exception of Ravens defensive coordinator Mike McDonald.
The Ravens, meanwhile, got gashed for yardage against the 49ers, but were aggressive in creating turnovers. They have arguably the second-best linebacker pairing in the league behind Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, with Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen. Their Swiss Army knife, Kyle Hamilton, was a major factor, too.
The Bengals, by the way, have a stud defensive coordinator in Lou Anarumo and an athletic middle linebacker in Logan Wilson.
The basic starting point for wreaking havoc on the 49ers is to have an elite defensive coordinator and flexible, athletic players in the middle of the field. It's not a hard-and-fast rule, and a capable pass rush and run defense are obviously crucial, too. But if you want to solve a Clue-style schematic mystery against the 49ers, start with the linebackers and DC.
That's all to say that Barry is not an elite defensive coordinator, nor are his linebackers.
Green Bay has allowed a horrifying percentage of explosive run plays. Through the first 15 weeks of the season (data beyond that is currently unavailable), they allowed the third-most explosive plays (10.08 percent) in the league and eighth-most explosive rushes (10-plus yards) in the league, at 11.4 percent. They also had the worst blitzing success rate in the league at 55.56 percent.
Quay Walker, who is unquestionably a stellar athlete, has not been stellar in most regards, most of all coverage. He has been serviceable in recent weeks.
De'Vondre Campbell, meanwhile, has fallen off in performance from his All-Pro 2021 and impressive 2022 campaign. The eight-year veteran has struggled with neck injuries, and while still a capable linebacker, is not playing near that elite level.
While QB rating against is an imperfect stat, it's worth noting that Campbell's 135.7 QB rating when targeted is 11th-worst in the NFL (min. 15 targets) out of 335 qualified players, per PFF data.
Packers starting safety Jonathan Owens' 124.4 QB rating when targeted is 25th-worst in the NFL. Jaire Alexander is the next player from either team on the list, at 62nd, with a 112.9 rating against. Walker is 102nd.
This is not intended to rag on Barry, Walker or Campbell. But if the Packers' impressive, veteran line led by Kenny Clark, Rashan Gary and Preston Smith doesn't cause problems, the 49ers will feel exceedingly confident about executing their offense.
The battle of the rookie kickers
Kickers? We're talking about kickers? ... KICKERS???
While Kyle Shanahan probably would prefer to eliminate ye olde "third phase" from the sport, it does matter, especially in the playoffs, and especially with two inexperienced, non-confidence-inspiring kickers.
Shanahan's comments Thursday on why he doesn't employ fake punts tell you all you need to know about how he views special teams compared to how he views the rest of his team.
“Yeah, I don't like to trick people into winning the game," Shanahan said.
You want to have game plan stuff and try to make it the easiest for the players. That's why if something's there and it's consistent and you feel like it, then no doubt. But it rarely is like that.
"The time I thought it was, we checked out of it. It's not about rolling the dice. We'll have no problem doing that type of stuff. But you do it if you have to.
"I think, why would you do that stuff if you feel you’ve got a bunch of other ways to win the game? Because to make a risk when those types of things can easily lose you the game - you got to do that stuff if you feel that's what it takes to win. But I don't think we've been in that situation for a little bit and it's probably like, the one I remember calling was I think our second year when we finished 4-12.”
But to ignore special teams in this matchup, especially given the Jordan Willis punt block that decided the 49ers' snowy playoff win in Green Bay in 2022, would be foolish.
Robbie Gould is gone, and rookie kicker Jake Moody is in his place. Moody finished 21-of-25 on field goals and 60-of-61 on extra points, but in that final game of the season, he looked shaky at best.
He missed his first extra point of the season after hitting 60 straight, along with his first miss inside 40, on a 38-yarder he pushed right. Moody's misses cost the 49ers a win in Cleveland, and in that final game against the Rams.
That's the worst thing that could've happened in the final game of the year. The only bright spot for the 49ers? The Packers' rookie kicker, Anders Carlson, is even more inconsistent.
Carlson has missed extra points in three of the last four games, and missed a kick in four-straight games. He was 27-of-33 on field goals, and 34-of-39 on extra points this year. He was, however, a flawless 14-of-14 from 41 yards or fewer.
It's also worth noting that Carlson has a 43.6 percent touchback percentage to Moody's 60 percent touchback rate. Carlson is also the emergency punter, which will only matter if Dan Whelan, who is sick, but expected to play, misses the game.
Those numbers could matter given that Green Bay has All-Pro special teamer Keisean Nixon, the league leader with 782 kickoff return yards (26.1 yards per return, 5th amongst players with 10+ return), and San Francisco returned the explosive Ray-Ray McCloud in Week 18.
The Packers actually lead the league in both kick return yards (783 yards) and kick return yards allowed (950 yards). That last number is a result of Carlson having the most kicks returned in the league (45 kicks, second-highest is 30,.Moody is third at 29).
He's eighth in yards per return allowed (23.9 yards). Moody is 14th at 22.6 yards per return, and is ranked as the worst kicker on kickoffs by PFF.
In other words, keep an eye on special teams, too... especially a long return from McCloud... or Nixon.