With a league-high 14 interceptions and perhaps the most dysfunctional situation surrounding him that the NFL has to offer, 2021 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence is having a rookie year to forget. According to Pro Football Focus, he has the second lowest overall grade (57.9) of 37 eligible quarterbacks through Week 15, ahead of only Texans rookie Davis Mills (53.6).
But another metric says otherwise. As Kevin Seifert of ESPN noted, two fellow rookie quarterbacks — the Bears' Justin Fields and the Jets' Zach Wilson — rank even lower than Lawrence in their Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) figures. In fact, they rank among the bottom five quarterback seasons that the league has seen... ever. The stat was born in 2006, meaning it doesn't cover every quarterback in history, but it's still jarring when considering the names that surround them.
Here's the list of the lowest QBR seasons ever, with the only requirement being that the quarterback had to start nine or more games:
1. Jimmy Clausen, 2010: 13.8
2. Blaine Gabbert, 2011: 22.2
3. Zach Wilson, 2021: 22.5
4. Josh Rosen, 2018: 24.1
5. Justin Fields, 2021: 25.3
So there's that, and if you're a believer in QBR, then that's not a great sign. Seifert notes that you have to skim past 75 names on the list of worst QBR seasons before you eventually reach a quarterback who became a Pro Bowler, which was Derek Carr and his 43.1 QBR after a poor performance in 2015.
But let's look at passer rating, why don't we? Using the same year (2006) as our lower boundary, here are the 20 lowest passer ratings for a season in which the quarterback made at least nine starts (via Stathead):
There's Wilson, at No. 11... but you won't find Fields until you go all the way down to No. 52 on the list, sandwiched in between 2013 Joe Flacco and 2010 Matt Hasselbeck with a 73.2 passer rating. And to add in one more metric, PFF ranks Wilson third worst this year (58.0) among qualified quarterbacks, while Fields is sandwiched between Trevor Siemian and Sam Darnold with a 64.2 grade.
The takeaway? Neither is having their desired rookie season, and that's that. But different metrics can twist stats and performances in very different ways, and even the best — take a look at Peyton Manning, in the top 20 list embedded above — can look rough at times. There's still some time left in their rookie seasons, and what we see could improve or worsen their numbers to this point. But what do their futures hold? It's way too early to tell.
You've just got to keep your heads up, Bears and Jets fans. Perhaps brighter days are coming.
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