California’s official state coronavirus model has been way off from other models and far from the reality of the pandemic in the Golden State.
State health officials and the governor are still defending it, insisting their projections were not needlessly alarmist.
A little over a month ago, Gov. Gavin Newsom estimated that 22 million Californians would get COVID-19 without mitigation measures. Even after a statewide shelter-in-place took effect, California’s coronavirus model projected up to 39,000 dead by June with hospitalizations peaking as high as 44,000 patients.
As it was clear there was no surge in local hospitals, the model kept projecting one to come in mid-to-late May.
Was it fed the wrong data or skewed by inaccurate assumptions?
Dr. Mark Ghaly, California’s Secretary of Health and Human Services, insists that wasn’t the case.
"We knew that these models were not going to be precise, that they pointed us in the right direction," Dr. Ghaly said. "I think they have."
He denied being overly pessimistic in his projections.
"We have conveyed a message of cautious optimism," Dr. Ghlay said.
The actual caseload and death toll have not come close to the state’s worst case projections.
"We know that many folks are looking at the models and deciding whether we were too pessimistic or too optimistic, or whether those led us to be too conservative or too liberal in our decisions," Dr. Ghaly said. "We stand firm in our decisions to do the things we’ve done in the last many weeks and as we move forward to use that same information to guide decisions."
Dr. Ghaly told KCBS Radio the state uses a combination of the model, which he revises every week, and the actual observed data, to guide the state’s decisions.
