SAN FRANCISCO (KCBS RADIO) – While Bay Area COVID-19 case rates are down slightly from two weeks ago, we're not out of the woods yet – the numbers are still about double where they were two months ago.
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"It's looking like we're on the downslide," said Dr. John Swartzberg, a clinical professor of medicine at UC Berkeley on KCBS Radio's "Ask an Expert" with Melissa Culross on Monday. "It's been really difficult to read this surge."
This latest surge was different from the one in December and January as the numbers didn't increase quite as dramatically.
"It went up gradually," he said. "And it's been going up gradually for a couple of months."
But the spike plateaued about two to three weeks ago, and now the numbers are going down.
The most recent spike was likely encouraged by the dropping of masking and other safety regulations combined with the more contagious variants that have emerged.
"The number of cases that we're having are much higher than we were having a year ago," said Swartzberg. "And the number of deaths that are occurring now are a little bit higher a year ago."
"There's really been a decoupling between the number of deaths that are occurring and the number of cases that we’re actually seeing," he said.
The main reason for that is most people have at this point some sort of immunity to the virus, either through infection or vaccination, or both.
"So that's the really good news about this surge," he said. "This surge, in contradiction to the one in January and delta last summer and fall, there are fewer people dying now than there were with those other surges."
And although the surge is now in its downturn, it's still not exactly safe to be out socializing indoors or in big crowds, without masking.
"The numbers that are being reported really are a fraction of the number of cases that are occurring," said Swartzberg.
This is because those who take home tests don't often report their results.
"So it's still very risky to be out and about right now," he said.
The best thing to do right now is to wear a mask, particularly at large celebrations, like Monday's Warriors parade in San Francisco, he said.
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