Even as Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a slight lead over former President Donald Trump in the presidential race (and earned the endorsement of pop queen Taylor Swift after Tuesday’s debate), Democrats are facing a daunting challenge in the House and Senate in November.
Primaries for the two chambers of Congress ended Tuesday, and it looks like Republicans could take over both, according to polling numbers and expert analysis. Still, there is a chance that Democrats could pull off a surprise and claim both chambers.
Currently, Democrats hold a narrow, 51-seat majority in the Senate that includes three independents and Republicans have a narrow 220-seat majority in the house. In the Senate, 34 seats are up for election and in the House, all 435 seats are up.
Here are the key races to pay attention to.
SENATE
Out of the 34 seats up for election in the Senate, 23 are held by Democrats.
One of those seats is held by Democrat-turned independent Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginia, who would often vote out-of-step with the rest of the Democratic party. He’s not running again and Republican Jim Justice is expected to beat Democrat Glenn Elliott there.
“Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat,” said 270 to Win.
According to the Center for Politics, the main race to keep an eye on is in Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester (D) has served three terms. Now, Tester is being challenged by Republican businessman and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy.
Despite Tester’s long tenure in the position, the Center for Politics notes that most polling shows Sheehy in the lead, and that Montana is generally a red state. However, the center has not yet called the race as “leans red” since its experts believe more polling data is needed.
While those experts said that Democrats have a chance to win their closest races to get an even 50-50 split in the Senate, this apparent lag in the Montana race may prevent them from pulling it off. Thus, Republicans are favored to flip the Senate majority.
In addition to the Montana race, others that have the potential to tip the balance are Florida, Maryland, Ohio and Texas.
Incumbent Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown is polling better than Republican Bernie Moreno in Ohio, according to aggregates from both The Hill’s HQ Decision Desk and FiveThrityEight. Democrat Angela Alsobrooks is also polling better than Republican Larry Hogan in Maryland, where Democrat incumbent Ben Cardin isn’t running for reelection. Still, these races are close.
Republican Sen. Rick Scott is expected to beat Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida, but that race is also close. Sen. Ted Cruz, who has become known on the national scene after running for president and stunts such as reading “Green Eggs and Ham” as a filibuster move, is also in a close race against Democrat Colin Allred.
“We remain skeptical of the Democrats’ ability to truly put Florida and Texas in play, and the Republicans’ ability to put Maryland in play,” said the Center for Politics.
Back in 2022, Democrats ended up flipping Pennsylvania for a net gain in the Senate even as it looked that they could lose the chamber. According to the Center for Politics, this year’s map looks even harder for them to win.
HOUSE
In the House of Representatives, things seem even more favorable for Republicans. Per 270 to Win, 191 seats appear to be safely “red” compared to 175 that are safely “blue”. Overall, it said 211 appear to lean Republican and 205 appear to lean Democrat. When there are no vacancies, 218 seats are needed for control of the chamber.
USA Today explained that, in the solidly red and blue districts, the important races happened during the primaries. For example, progressive Democratic incumbents who emerged as vocal critics of Israel in its war against Hamas were unseated by other Democrats who were supported by pro-Israel groups, while others remained in their positions.
As for the upcoming race for the House, USA Today said it typically aligns with the winner of the presidential race. While Harris is ahead, her lead is slim and her path to become the candidate had been unconventional – President Joe Biden wasn’t polling as well before he dropped out of the race this summer.
FiveThirtyEight polling aggregates indicate that voters slightly favor having Democrats in Congress over Republicans. However, The Hill’s HQ Decision Desk forecasts that Republicans have a 57% chance of winning the House.
“Democrats currently hold five seats won by Trump in 2020, while Republicans hold 17 won by Biden. The two big battlegrounds for the House are in California and New York, where Republicans in Biden-won districts are a target for Democrats,” said USA Today.
GOP Rep. Mike Garcia faces Democrat George Whitesides in California’s 27th District, Rep. John Duarte faces Democrat Adam Gray in the Modesto-based 13th District, Rep. David Valadao faces Democrat Rudy Salas in the 22nd District, Rep. Ken Calvert faces Democrat Will Rollins in the 41st District and Rep. Michelle Steel faces Democrat Derek Tran in the 45th District.
In New York, Republican Rep. Brandon Williams faces Democratic New York state Sen. John Mannion in the 22nd District. Rep. Mike Lawler faces former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones in the 17th District, Rep. Marc Molinaro faces Democratic attorney Josh Riley in the 19th District, and Rep. Anthony D’Esposito faces Democrat Laura Gillen in the 4th District.