President Joe Biden maintains a lead over former President Donald Trump with young voters, but it is weaker than the one he had four years ago, according to a recent poll from the Institute of Politics at the Harvard Kennedy School.
According to the poll results – gathered from interviews of 2,010 18-to-29-year-olds conducted in late March – Biden leads Trump by eight percentage points.
“That 8 percentage point margin is much smaller than at this point in the 2020 election,” POLITICO explained. “At that time, Biden was leading Trump by 23 percentage points among young people.”
Of course, there are significant differences between 2020 and 2024. At that time, Trump was in office and the world had just entered the COVID-19 pandemic.
As we head towards the November election, what in particular is driving the youth away from Biden? Here’s what the data shows.
The economy
Per the Harvard poll, a plurality of young voters said that economic issues are their top concern. At the same time, Biden’s approval on economic issues, except student loan debt, is lower than his 31% overall approval rating among them.
He has a 39% approval rating related to student debt relief and a 23% approval rating on inflation.
An Axios/Generation Lab survey of more than 1,000 young people conducted in February also found that “the economy is top of mind for young people heading into the election.”
War in Gaza
Polls have also shown that the Israel-Hamas War is a challenging issue for Biden where younger voters are concerned. Harvard’s polling found that just 18% approved of Biden’s approach to the war.
“When young Americans are asked whether or not they believe Israel’s response so far to the October 7 attack by Hamas has been justified, a plurality indicates that they don’t know (45%),” said the poll summary. “About a fifth (21%) report that Israel’s response was justified with 32% believing it was not justified.”
Hamas, a Palestinian militant group, conducted a large-scale terrorist attack on Israel in October. Israel responded by declaring war on the group, and civilians in Gaza have been left in the crossfire. The U.S. has long been Israel’s strongest ally and has both supported the country and worked to get aid to Palestinians in Gaza.
More young Republicans see Israel’s actions as justified (36% justified, 16% not justified) compared to young Democrats (14% justified, 44% not justified) and independents (19% justified, 30% not justified).
Although majorities of young Americans said they hold sympathy for the Israeli (52% sympathize) and the Palestinian people (56% sympathize) they have far less sympathy for their governments (29% sympathize with the Israeli government; 32% with the Palestinian government). Additionally, 17% said they have sympathy for Hamas, which slipped to 13% when Hamas was identified as an Islamist militant group.
Disillusionment with public institutions
Harvard’s poll also found that confidence in public institutions continues to decline, and the recent youth poll “shows the lowest levels of confidence in most public institutions since the survey began.”
Over the past decade, trust in the president has declined by 60% to 20%. Trust in the Supreme Court declined 55% to hit 24%, trust among Wall Street is down 43% to 9%, trust in the U.S. military declined 38% to 36% trust in the federal government declined 38% to 17%, trust in Congress dropped 34% to 12% and trust in the media dropped 18% to 10%.
Even though younger Americans love pop star Taylor Swift, she has possibly become too much of an institution to sway their political sentiments. According to the Axios/Generation Lab survey, 25% of young voters consider themselves Swift fans, but just 5% said she could change their voting plans.
As faith in institutions declines, American lawmakers have gone after a favorite social outlet for younger generations – TikTok. It’s likely that legislation that could ban the app will soon by passed by Congress.
“Adults under age 30 are the only age group where opposition to a ban outweighs support, according to the Pew survey, and younger voters more heavily skew Democratic,” said a report from USA Today. “That’s led some Democrats to warn the ban could be a mistake in an election year where the next president is likely to be decided by just a sliver of voters.”
Young men becoming more conservative
Although Biden has a lead against Trump among both men and women, his lead is much greater among women at 33 points to six.
“Biden’s lead among women is nearly identical (was +35 in 2020), but his lead among likely male voters has been dramatically reduced from +26 in 2020 to +6 today,” said the Harvard poll. This is part of a trend showing young men shifting party identification from Democrat to Republican.
Reuters reported earlier this month that “a large global survey… showed a surge in despair and disillusionment with established politics, particularly among young American men, the only U.S. population group to turn more conservative over the past decade.” It said that social media algorithms were magnifying the trend by drawing men towards more extreme political ideas.
The Harvard poll also showed that “views on the role of government have not changed as dramatically,” among young American men despite their party shift. What has changed is the attitude they have towards climate policy.
“In 2020, 60% of young men agreed that ‘government should do more to curb climate change, even at the expense of economic growth,’ while today, agreement is down to 47%,” the poll found.
This week, Fast Company explored why climate change may not be an issue that reliably motivates young Americans to vote for Biden.
“It’s not clear whether Biden can count on climate-conscious young voters for him to win reelection for a variety of reasons, from failing to appreciate the administration’s climate accomplishments and disenchantment over energy policies that encourage more fossil-fuel production to cynicism over politics in general and anger over his stance on the conflict in Gaza, among other issues,” said the outlet.
What does it mean?
So far, polls have shown that we should expect a close race between Biden and Trump in November. Most recently, an Emerson College poll found Trump with a slight edge on Biden at 46% to the president’s 43%.
According to the Harvard poll, young voters will likely cast ballots for Biden, even if Trump supporters are more enthusiastic about their candidate than Biden voters. Support for Biden among youth voters could spike even higher if Trump is found guilty in one of multiple trials he’s facing.
If a guilty verdict is delivered for Trump, the poll found that Biden’s lead jumps from 8% to 18% among young voters.