SAN FRANCISCO (KCBS RADIO) – The omicron variant may not actually cause milder illness than other variants of COVID-19, contrary to what was previously thought, according to new research out of Harvard Medical School.
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Covering 13 major hospitals in Massachusetts, the study included records of the risks of hospital admission and mortality across multiple COVID-19 waves in over 130,000 COVID patients.
"Although the unadjusted rates of hospital admission and mortality appeared to be higher in previous waves compared to the Omicron period, after adjusting for confounders including various demographics, Charlson comorbidity index scores, and vaccination status (and holding the healthcare utilization constant), we found that the risks of hospitalization and mortality were nearly identical between periods," said the study's authors.
"Our analysis suggests that the intrinsic severity of the Omicron variant may be as severe as previous variants," they said.
The previous assumption that omicron is not as severe as other variants came largely from anecdotes and stories, according to Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, Professor of Medicine and Associate Dean for Regional Campuses at UCSF on KCBS Radio's "Ask an Expert" on Friday.
"Stories help change our mind frame but it's not statistics," he told Holly Quan and Jason Brooks. "I think what the Harvard study did is confirm what we've been seeing in the hospital – which is that during omicron just like during delta or alpha or other surges with COVID-19, we saw a lot of sick people in the hospital."
However, because the strain was more transmissible, more people getting infected increases the ratio of people with less serious illness, but doesn't take away from those infected with severe illness.
Vaccination and boosting are still the best ways to prevent serious illness, and despite the well-known waning of the booster shot's effectiveness, they're still helpful to get.
"The more times you remind the immune system, the better it is overall at preventing you from getting sick," said Chin-Hong.
The boosters are helpful in "topping off" the antibodies, which have a "shelf-life" of three to six months.
A breakthrough infection could still occur, as the virus changes and the antibodies fade over time, but the goal is to stay out of the hospital, and boosters help with that.
Omicron and its subvariants are persisting because they look a bit different from the strains that came before, making it harder for antibodies to recognize them.
It's likely that vaccines will get an update soon in the fall and winter of this year, as infections still occur and still cause disruptions in society, said Chin-Hong.
The base of the new version of the vaccine is likely going to be omicron, as more and more variants emerge as offshoots.
Or it could be a "universal vaccine" that instead of focusing on the changes in the spike proteins of the virus to focus on the non-changing aspects of the virus.
"The nicest thing might be a combination of a flu and a COVID-19 vaccine," he said, which Moderna is working on. "So at least you just get stuck once a year."
The new results from the Harvard study are yet another change in what people think they know about the COVID-19 virus, which with its constant changes has often led to confusing policies and mandates.
"I think that left a lot of people so frustrated that it became more than just science, it became more than just healthcare, it became politics and personal beliefs," said Chin-Hong, which turned into one of the most surprising and frustrating aspects of the pandemic.
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