We’re finally at the last weekend before the 2024 presidential election, and the race looks nearly even between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. As early voting numbers come in, polls indicate that Harris currently has a slight lead.
“Nationally, Harris leads Trump by between 19 and 29 points among those who say they’ve already voted, which is more than Hillary Clinton in 2016,” said a Thursday analysis from Aaron Blake for The Washington Post.
He said that polls from Marist, CNN, Fox News and USA Today-Suffolk University showed Harris in the lead in six out of seven battleground states, as follows: Arizona up nine to 12 points, Georgia up seven to 10 points, Michigan up 26 to 39 points, North Carolina up two to 6 points, Pennsylvania up 17 to 35 points, Wisconsin up 22 to 60 points.
“The only state where a major, high-quality poll has shown Harris actually trailing among those who have already cast ballots is CNN’s poll of Nevada, which shows Trump leading by six points,” Blake wrote Thursday.
CNN also reported last week that Harris “likely banked more votes than Trump so far, given Democrats’ higher propensity to vote early or by mail,” based on a poll conducted by SSRS from Oct. 20 to Oct. 23. It found that 20% of likely voters said they already cast their ballots. Of those voters, 61% said they voted for Harris and 36% said they voted for Trump.
“Despite Donald Trump’s boasts of an ‘unprecedented’ lead in early voting, polling suggests that Kamala Harris is actually significantly ahead among those who have already voted either through absentee, mail-in or in-person ballots,” said a Friday report from The Independent.
Early voting records have already been made this year and Republicans have been turning out for early voting in larger numbers, per The Washington Post. During the 2020 election, early voting increased due to COVID-19 pandemic related lockdown measures. At the time, Trump was critical of mail-in ballots and more Democrats voted by mail than Republicans.
Citing the University of Florida's Election Lab, ABC News reported Friday that more than 70 million Americans had voted early – about 44% of the 2020 turnout. Republican turnout was higher this year in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina than it was in the last presidential election.
Charles Stewart, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s election data science lab, said it is difficult to predict the race even as data comes in, per ABC.
“It’s like talking about the weather,” he explained.
So far, he said early voting data indicates that Trump encouraging voters to cast ballots early this time around has impacted early voting turnout for Republicans.
While Republican officials have been touting these higher numbers as a sign of growing support, Stewart warned there is more nuance to the data. These voters seem to be people who voted on election day in 2020, not new voters, he added.
“Stewart said this would mean there would be fewer Republican voters casting their ballots on Election Day and thus their votes may not be reported until much later on election night or even for days afterward,” ABC said. Back in 2020, voter turnout was higher than it had been in more than a century and Stewart thinks this year’s will be on par, with around 160 million ballots cast.
He also said one important demographic appears to be waiting until election day to vote – those age 25 and under. Typically, that age bracket votes for Democratic candidates.
As far as general polling goes, Harris was still in the lead Saturday based on FiveThirtyEight polling aggregates (48% to 46.8%) and YouGov polling data (47.5% to 45.8%). She also nearly closed an Electoral College gap predicted by The Virtual Tout. In the final days of October, its prediction swung 58 votes in Harris’ favor to land at 270 for Trump and 268 for Harris as of Saturday.
On the other hand, The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ forecast Trump had a 54% chance of winning, and betting markets also favored Trump. Polymarket had him at 59.5% compared to Harris’ 40.6%, while Kalshi had Trump at 55% to Harris’ 45%.
USA Today noted Saturday that the race remains “razor thin” with just days to go until Tuesday.