We are now on day 166 of the ’15 Days To Slow The Spread.’
A friend of mine had COVID-19. I do not want it. Thankfully, he has made a full recovery with none of the highly reported side-effects. COVID-19 is not a death sentence. Yes, it can be bad and fatal. People will continue to get very sick. However, there are also a lot of unwarranted fears about the awful virus. These fears, or simply playing off these fears, have crippled our economy, kept loved ones apart, halted traditions, and disrupted life and work.
Keep in mind that I reluctantly understood, tolerated, accepted, condoned, or temporarily agreed to some of the decisions made by officials ‘during these unprecedented times.’ I also wrote editorials about this pandemic and the next one. Click here to read them.
The news reports and political fear-mongering are overwhelming to some folks. Many people are scared to death - afraid to leave their homes. Afraid to socialize. Unwilling to re-enter society unless to grab essential items every 2 weeks. This is not healthy. It could actually be worse than COVID.
So, let’s take a sobering look at some details:
Since the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania began to enter the harsh lockdown-phase on March 12th, over 11% of the population or 1.4 million residents have tested NEGATIVE for the virus - including me.
As of Sunday, Pennsylvania health officials report that a total of 124,802 citizens have contracted Covid-19. There have also been 3,627 probable cases. Recovery rate is currently 80% according to health.pa.gov. This means that of the 128,429 total reported cases since March there are currently 25,685 residents of the state suffering from COVID-19. There are 487 people hospitalized across the state due to the severity of their symptoms. Let us all hope and pray they make complete recoveries.
More Pennsylvanians over the age of 95 have succumbed to the virus than under the age of 60.
I suck at math….but, let me give this a shot: Pennsylvania has a population of roughly 12.8 million. The number of those currently suffering from COVID is 25,685. That means .2 percent…POINT TWO percent of our neighbors unfortunately suffer from COVID-19 today. POINT TWO!! That is 1/5 of ONE PERCENT. Twenty cents out of $100. That means 99.8% of Pennsylvanians thankfully do not have it.
Be honest: No one has reported that.
Fortunately, these numbers are down from two weeks ago when there were around 700 hospitalizations and nearly 28,000 open/active cases. Unfortunately, the numbers could pop back up quickly. Wear a mask, wash your hands, weigh your risks.
The PA Death Rate of COVID-19 according to the Centers for Disease Control is 59 per 100,000. For perspective, heart disease is the #1 cause of death in Pennsylvania at 176 per 100,000. Luckily, heart disease is not contagious unless you eat off the same menu or are privileged enough to inherit it.
The number of CASES per 100K in the state is 997. The national average is 1,708. Seems like we are doing pretty well in the Commonwealth. How well?
Let’s compare with Sweden - a country of 10.4 million. The Nordic nation was heavily criticized for not taking draconian measures to stop the spread. It restricted large gatherings, shifted to table service-only at bars & restaurants, urged people to work from home & avoid public transportation when possible, but did not close schools or businesses. Isolation was voluntary, and its economy opted for normalcy instead of harsh lockdowns. It got mixed results.
Sweden is an open economy which depends on international trade. Its ‘Gross Domestic Product’ fell 8.6% while the UK, Italy, Spain, etc fell around 12% each. Sweden’s unemployment rate peaked at 9%, which is high for a Nordic country. Pennsylvania’s adjusted unemployment rate for April - our harshest month - was 16.1%. The worst in over 40 years of record-keeping.
What about COVID Deaths per 100,000 citizens? San Marino, Belgium, and Peru lead that unfortunate category. Despite all you hear in the news, the US is currently 11th with 54 deaths per 100K.
Sweden? They are 9th with 57 deaths per 100K.
What is Pennsylvania’s rate again? Unfortunately, 59 deaths per 100,000 residents, according to the CDC. Worse than Sweden, which essentially did nothing. The Swedes did limit nursing home visits but did not to put Covid-positive patients back in the facilities. Care homes account for 76.4% of PA COVID deaths.
Be cautious. Be courteous. But also be rational.
Thank you. Have a great day.
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