Elon Musk told G20 innovation ministers this week that humanoid robots could number more than a billion within 10 years and outproduce all of humanity.
Musk spoke by video Tuesday to the G20 Innovation Ministerial in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, according to CNBC, Yahoo Finance, and the University of North Carolina’s Daily Tar Heel. He is CEO of Tesla and SpaceX.
“Ten years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots,” Musk said, according to a Yahoo Finance transcript of the remarks. “The productivity per robot will be probably five times that of a human.” He called that a conservative estimate he would “put serious money betting on,” and said a billion such machines would be “more productive than all humans combined.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk says he expects artificial intelligence to increase the global economy by 20-30%, or roughly $20 trillion to $30 trillion, per year.
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) September 1, 2026
Musk spoke virtually during the G20 Innovation Ministerial https://t.co/bAQa2bIIrJ pic.twitter.com/8gb86Njq8N
He described a “recursive” loop: once robots can manufacture other robots, growth starts slow and then “grows at an explosive rate.” Usefulness, he said, is AI software times the onboard chip times mechanical dexterity, especially the hands.
Separately, Musk said digital AI alone could lift the global economy 20% to 30%, or about $20 trillion to $30 trillion a year, Bloomberg TV reported. Robotics, he argued, is where output could grow by many multiples. He also warned of an electricity crunch, telling ministers chip production is outrunning power supply and citing an industry view of a roughly 15-gigawatt shortfall in 2027, the Daily Tar Heel reported.
The comments are a forecast, not a shipment report. Tesla is developing the Optimus humanoid at the same company that builds vehicles at Gigafactory Texas. Musk did not give a Tesla-only production number in the G20 remarks as reported.
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