PITTSBURGH (93.7 The Fan) The Pirates will be picking first overall in the upcoming MLB draft for the first time since 2011 in which they selected Gerrit Cole out of UCLA.
MLB.com draft expert, Jonathan Mayo joined The PM Team to discuss the best draft strategy and the one he expects Ben Cherington to use come July 11th.
Mayo recalled memories of that 2011 draft as a lesson for the teams selecting at the top of this draft which he called, "a bit of a cautionary tale." The Pirates were locked into Cole that year, but at number 2 the Mariners had a situation similar to the one faced by Pittsburgh's front office now.
"The best college pitcher in the country was a lefty out of the University of Virginia named Danny Hultzen and they were contemplating taking Hultzen, who everyone thought would get to the big leagues in a hurry... and a high school shortstop... they decided to go with the college arm."
The high school shortstop in question was Francisco Lindor who wound up going 8th overall followed one pick later by another high school shortstop Javier Baez.
Mayo's point was that the Pirates should not be too enticed by Jack Leiter and the idea of him being with the pro club within a year or two. Leiter may also command closer to slot value than anyone else in consideration for the first pick, leaving the Pirates with less to spend on their second round picks and beyond.
Cherington may opt to spend less on the first selection to save for later picks. A strategy that the club actually utilized back in 2011 when they nabbed Josh Bell with the 61st overall selection and were able to persuade him away from a commitment to the University of Texas.
They would likely have to wait a little longer for the development of either Jordan Lawlar or Marcelo Mayer, the consensus top two high schoolers in a class flush with young talent up the middle.
"There's an abundance of high school shortstops in this class, it's an odd year. There are four high school shortstops who likely will go in the top-ten."
The shortstops would also likely come in at a lower price than Leiter. So the Pirates have their pick of the litter if they choose not to select a college arm or Henry Davis the college catcher from Louisville. Mayo also cautioned against selecting a catcher even though it is the position of most need in the Pirates system.
"Drafting for need at the very top of the draft is a bad idea... if they are really drafting for need they should go ahead and get a catcher, because" as he joked, "I think I'm the third best catching prospect in the system right now."
Even though the Pirates have a plethora of middle infield talent in their system with Nick Gonzales, Liover Pegero, and Oneil Cruz. All roads for Mayo lead to selecting a high school shortstop, and he has an idea of who that should be.
"Marcelo Mayer is the best player in this draft class."