2023 MLB Preview: 8 noteworthy bounce-back candidates

Between 2019 and 2021, Giolito was seventh in WAR among all pitchers. In 2022, he regressed to a 4.90 ERA and 4.06 FIP, one of many disappointing developments during an 81-81 season for the White Sox. As he enters a contract year, we expect Giolito to return to being one of the best pitchers in the American League, setting him up to receive a lucrative deal next winter.

The Phillies had a magical run to the World Series in 2022, but the first season of a five-year/$100 million deal for Castellanos was rather disastrous individually. The former All-Star posted just a .694 OPS, and FanGraphs says that his -0.7 WAR was the third-worst mark among all qualified position players. Castellanos is never going to grade out well as a fielder, and both he and the Phillies will eagerly await Bryce Harper's return to right field, which will open up DH at-bats. Ultimately, though, the Phillies need a major rebound from Castellanos at the plate. Between 2017 and 2021, Castellanos led baseball in doubles. If the Phillies get that hitter in 2023, they'll have one of the deepest lineups in the sport.

Hernández had an excellent first season in Boston in 2021, but a right hip flexor injury limited him to just 93 games in 2022. One of baseball's most versatile players decided to remain with the Red Sox on a one-year/$10 million deal, and after spending much of his first two seasons with the team playing in center field, Hernández projects to replace Xander Bogaerts as the starting shortstop in 2023.

Non-tendered by the New York Mets in November, Smith will remain in the National League East after inking a one-year/$2 million pact with Washington. While the Nationals won't give Smith a chance to play for a competitive team in 2023, he should see extended at-bats on a bad team. Perhaps he'll show signs of being the player that he was between 2019 and 2020, when he posted a .937 OPS in 139 games.

Between 2019 and 2021, Miller hit 40 home runs and posted an .812 OPS, playing largely with the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals. So when he signed a two-year/$10 million deal with the Rangers ahead of the 2021 season, it felt like a team-friendly contract. However, Miller struggled through an injury-riddled first season in Texas, playing in just 81 games. If healthy, Miller is a boom-or-bust hitter that can carry your lineup for a few days when he's on a hot streak. The Rangers have a very top-heavy roster, and if they hope to return to the postseason for the first time since 2016, they'll need players like Miller to step up.

The Dodgers thought highly enough of Taylor to extend a qualifying offer to him before he became a free agent and ultimately re-sign him to a four-year/$60 million contract ahead of 2022. With the departure of Trea Turner this offseason, the Dodgers will need better production out of Taylor than the .677 OPS that they got in 118 games in the first season of said contract.

Bellinger isn't looking to bounce back after just one disappointing season, but rather three consecutive. Since the start of the 2020 season, Bellinger has posted just a .648 OPS. However, in the three seasons prior to that, he won the NL Rookie of the Year and MVP Awards, and looked to be on a Hall of Fame-trajectory. The Dodgers finally non-tendered Bellinger this past offseason, but his defensive flexibility and history of hitting an an elite level were enough to intrigue the Cubs on a one-year/$17.5 million deal. Perhaps a change of scenery will help to reignite Bellinger's career, specifically at the plate.

Báez parlayed an impressive 2021 season split between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets into a six-year/$140 million deal with the Tigers. Just about everything went wrong for the Tigers in 2022, including Báez posting an OPS south of .700 and -4 defensive runs saved. If the two-time All-Star can't rebound in his second season with the Tigers, his contract will be viewed as one of the worst in the sport.