The 2021 MLB Draft will begin on Sunday, July 11. Here is the second projection from Audacy Sports on how the top 10 picks will play out.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Marcelo Mayer - SS, East Lake High School (California)
Ben Cherington is tasked with rebuilding the Pirates.(Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)While Jack Leiter was the favorite here in the court of public opinion after an electric start to his 2021 season, Ben Cherington and the Pirates may have other ideas. Keith Law of The Athletic hears that there's "a decreased likelihood" of the Pirates selecting either Leiter or his Vanderbilt teammate Kumar Rocker. Where they go from there is less clear. While Law currently projects Louisville catcher Henry Davis, both Jim Callis of MLB.com and Carlos Collazo of Baseball America seem to think that shortstop is the most likely position of interest for the Pirates. Even those two, though, don't agree on which shortstop is most likely to go No. 1. For now, we'll lean Mayer, who Prospects Live notes has a stance that reminds you of a left-handed Manny Machado.
2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar - SS, Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas (Texas)
Jon Daniels is hoping to rebuild the Rangers.(Tom Pennington/Getty Images)Five Tool Baseball called Lawlar "too smooth," and that's probably the perfect description of the Vanderbilt commit. Defensively, Lawlar has strong instincts and a tremendous release. At the plate, Lawlar will run into home runs, but he's got a great, contact-first approach at a young age that could allow him to develop into an All-Star at the major league level.
3. Detroit Tigers: Jack Leiter - RHP, Vanderbilt University
Jack Leiter is one of the most hyped collegiate players in years.(George Walker IV / T/USA Today)Leiter is 8-3 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.867 WHIP in 14 starts for Vandy in 2021. The 21-year-old probably wouldn't take very long to reach the majors, and could be part of a potentially special trio of young starting pitching with Casey Mize and Matt Manning for the Tigers.
4. Boston Red Sox: Kumar Rocker - RHP, Vanderbilt University
Kumar Rocker heads to the Red Sox in our latest MLB Mock Draft.(Courtney Pedroza / T/USA Today)Rocker was a 38th round pick by the Colorado Rockies out of high school in 2018, and has a very real chance to turn a three-year career at Vandy into being a top-five pick three summers later. Rocker is 11-3 in 15 starts in 2021, with a 2.86 ERA to show after 91 1/3 innings of work. The Red Sox starting rotation has actually turned out to be pretty deep in 2021, but their farm system is short on potential frontline starting options moving forward, especially with Bryan Mata undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. Rocker would immediately address that issue, and could join the Red Sox rotation within a few seasons.
5. Baltimore Orioles: Brady House - SS, Winder-Barrow High School (Georgia)
Mike Elias is tasked with rebuilding the Orioles.(Rob Carr/Getty Images)There's quite a few intriguing shortstops in this year's draft, and we're projecting that Mike Elias and the Orioles will take the third in the first five picks. Of the top three, it seems as though House is the least certain to remain a shortstop, although the Orioles have quite a history with players capable of playing both shortstop and third base. MLB Pipeline grades House at a 60 power tool (out of 80), the highest among this year's shortstops. The comp used in their scouting report speaks very highly of his offensive ceiling: "scouts compare him to a more athletic version of Joey Gallo or 2018 Cardinals first-rounder Nolan Gorman."
6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Henry Davis - C, Louisville University
Henry Davis (left) heads to the Diamondbacks in our latest MLB Mock Draft.(Steven Branscombe/USA Today)Some, such as The Athletic's Keith Law, believe Davis could legitimately be taken with the top overall pick, and as we get closer to the draft, he may move up in our projection. For now, the Diamondbacks would be ecstatic to land the 21-year-old, who could be in the majors in a few years. While ESPN's Kiley McDaniel notes that Davis has work to do behind the plate, he says that the Louisville catcher "may be the best hit/power/performance combination in the draft." At a position with so few premium talents, Davis appears to have a chance to be one of the limited needle movers with his bat.
7. Kansas City Royals: Jackson Jobe - RHP, Heritage High School (Oklahoma)
Dayton Moore is tasked with rebuilding the Royals.(Ed Zurga/Getty Images)It's impossible to watch or read about Jobe and not come away impressed by his wiffle-ball like slider. Jobe is committed to Mississippi, but almost certainly won't end up playing collegiately, because whoever takes him in the top 10 will be especially keen on the future Pitching Ninja darling. MLB Pipeline notes that Jobe's fastball sits at "92-94 mph and tops out at 96," meaning he has a good fourseamer, but isn't entirely reliant on just blowing the ball by opposing hitters. Jobe's selection could set the Royals up to have a bounty of young arms in the near future, as he'd join Asa Lacy, Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar in a system already deep in pitching.
8. Colorado Rockies: Khalil Watson - SS, Wake Forest High School (North Carolina)
The Rockies are hoping to build a contender to play at Coors Field.(Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)Watson perhaps isn't a sure thing, but Prospects Live says that the 18-year-old has "an electric profile," adding that "plenty of teams at the top of the draft love his toolset." A left-handed hitter, it's hard not to be intrigued by Watson's potential if his power is unlocked on a consistent basis, because when he makes contact, it goes a long way. The Rockies are a total rebuild, especially with the expected departure of Trevor Story. Watson could be part of the next wave of talent in team's system that helps Colorado return to contention around the mid-2020s.
9. Los Angeles Angels: Matt McClain - SS, UCLA
The Angels are hoping to return to the postseason soon.(Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)You don't want to get into a tendency of not just taking the best player available, but it would almost feel wrong for Angels general manager Perry Minasian to take a high school prospect that wouldn't be ready to play until after Mike Trout's peak. McClain has had an excellent junior season at UCLA, hitting .323 with nine home runs and 28 RBIs, and could probably reach the majors relatively quickly.
10. New York Mets: Sal Frelick - Center Fielder, Boston College
Sandy Alderson is hoping to continue to build the Mets organization depth.(Rich Schultz/Getty Images)The Mets did just select Pete Crow-Armstrong in the first round last year, but they're a franchise with a relatively uncertain future in the outfield. Michael Conforto can become a free agent after the 2021 season, Brandon Nimmo after 2022 and Dominic Smith could be a DH, at least on a part-time basis, beginning in 2022. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel says that Frelick possesses "70-grade speed, above-average bat speed, average raw power, at least a 55 hit tool," which would make him an interesting piece for the Mets to add as they attempt to continue to add outfield depth to the organization.
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