It’s Super Bowl Week at last, which means a wildly busy time for oddsmakers. Big bets are starting to come in on everything from the final score and the MVP to the coin toss and the Gatorade color.
This matchup between Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will likely be a showdown for the ages. It will also be a massive event betting-wise, as sports gambling is legal now in more states than ever.
To gain some insight into the game, as well as the wild week leading up to it, I spoke with DraftKings oddsmaker Johnny Avello. Avello gave his predictions for line movement, the MVP winner and more ahead of Super Bowl LV.
Do you anticipate any big line movement between now and Super Bowl Sunday?
Not huge movement. We’ve been between -3 and -3.5 on the Chiefs. I think it will end up at one of those two numbers. I don’t think it will go down to -2 or -2.5. The total itself opened a little higher. It’s down at a lower number but it could go back up to 56.5. There is a good balance on the moneyline (Chiefs -167, Buccaneers +148, per DraftKings Sportsbook).
What is generally your daily routine on game day of the Super Bowl? What do you do during the game? Do you have any snacks or are you completely focused?
We have everything up by game time, thank God. I’ll be monitoring bets coming in. This year is a little more exciting because we have two national commercials. The second commercial has to do with a fourth quarter pool on our site. I usually catch pieces of the game but there are calls and there’s in-game wagering. I never get to watch the whole game but I’ll usually catch it the next day.
Do you have any superstitions during Super Bowl Week or during the game itself?
I used to have some. I wore a suit last year and we did well so I’m going to do that again but I don’t really have any now.
What’s the worst Super Bowl betting loss you’ve ever seen?
There have been a couple through the years. Most recently was when I was working at the Wynn for the Seattle/New England Super Bowl. We took some big bets on that game, one of them being $1 million, and we got hammered on that one. There’s some things I’d like to forget, but it’s been a pleasure over the years to provide bets for our clients.
Who do you think will be the MVP?
Traditionally, the winning team’s quarterback is the winner. He’s the difference if the team wins or loses. Mahomes has the skills to pass and run. Brady mostly has the skills to run. Mahomes is our No. 1 choice and Brady is our No. 2 choice.
What is your favorite exotic prop bet?
I like the jersey special. The jersey number of the first touchdown scored.
What are your general thoughts on this game? Do you think any betting records will be broken?
My own personal feeling, we’ve done so well during the regular NFL season. Every week seemed to be a record for us. I’m very optimistic this will be very, very big for us, handle-wise. We’re in multiple states now and I think this will be very big.
Lucy is a sports betting content producer with Radio.com and BetQL. She has worked with WEEI and Radio.com as a writer, radio producer and podcaster. Lucy lives in Boston and loves Tom Brady and prop bets. Follow Lucy on Twitter at @LucilleBurdge.
