Without fail, college football bowl season presents some of the most valuable betting opportunities of the calendar year. There are tons of angles to hit when looking at these matchups, including motivation mismatches, intra-conference battles and more.
Here are three games ahead of New Years Day that present some value now that all the opening lines have been released, highlighted by a Cotton Bowl preview between the Oklahoma Sooners and Florida Gators.
Camellia Bowl: Marshall (+3, O/U 54) vs. Buffalo - December 25
Both these teams enter this one losers of their conference championships, despite being the pre-game favorites. Marshall’s offense could not move the ball at all against the rugged UAB defense, while Buffalo struggled with dropped passes against Ball State.
This one comes down to what Buffalo running back Jarrett Patterson can do against this Marshall rush defense that has been one of the most impressive in Conference USA. Marshall is allowing only 2.67 yards per rush this season, while allowing opponents to convert just 32% of third down opportunities.
Buffalo has the eye popping numbers due to an easy schedule in the MAC this season. The team faced arguably the two worst FBS schools in Akron and Bowling Green in an abbreviated season, pumping up all their numbers.
While Marshall didn’t face a difficult schedule by any means, I trust that their defense can show up and keep Buffalo under its season averages. Meanwhile, the likes of Ball State and Kent State have been able to gash the Bulls defense, and Marshall should be motivated to finish its season on a high note after back-to-back duds against Rice and UAB.
Freshman quarterback Grant Wells has struggled heading into the end of the season, but running back Brenden Knox is arguably the best running back in Conference USA. He should have a field day against a Buffalo rush defense that has inflated numbers due to an easy schedule. Take the points in this one.
Mayo Bowl: Wisconsin (-7, O/U 55) vs. Wake Forest - December 30
Wisconsin’s appearance in the 2020 Mayo Bowl is an outlier during this bizarre year. The Badgers have been one of the hardest hit schools by COVID-19, having three games cancelled this season as well as missing key players due to the virus.
While its opponent, Wake Forest, plays fast and doesn’t pose much of a threat on defense, this total seems too high. This game is going to be played on Wisconsin’s terms; slow and physical. The Badgers milk the clock and are going to pound the rock for first downs at will.
While this Wake defense will be refreshing for Bucky after going through the physical Big Ten defensive gauntlet, the Badgers' last four totals since a 49-11 drubbing over Michigan have been: 24, 20, 35, 37. That’s not one team, that is the total for the whole game.
Additionally, the Wake Forest offense is going to be down its best player. Running back Kenneth Walker III, who has 13 touchdowns in 7 games, opted out of the season. While the Badgers’ offense has fallen off considerably, its defense is humming like the Wisconsin of old.
I do not expect many points in this one and will be backing the under in the Mayo Bowl. I have this game pegged in the 40’s with Wisconsin -11, so I show some value on the Badgers, but can not lay the points given their offensive issues at the moment.
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma (+3, O/U 70) vs. Florida - December 30
Handicapping bowl games is not an exact science, but it can be profitable when finding certain motivation factors. We have one here.
The 2020 Cotton Bowl pits two teams trending in opposite directions. Oklahoma finished its regular season on a tear, winning its last seven games and covering the spread in six of them. Since defensive end Ronnie Perkins returned, the Sooner defense has been in fantastic form to complement Spencer Rattler and the offense. Lincoln Riley has his team playing its best right now, winning the Big 12 title last weekend over a game Iowa State squad.
Meanwhile, Florida limped to the finish line. After losing a heartbreaker at home to LSU that soiled any College Football Playoff opportunity, as well as Kyle Trask’s Heisman candidacy, the Gators lost a shootout against Alabama in the SEC Championship. The team’s best offensive player and future first round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Kyle Pitts, has already said he will sit for this one, and the Gators’ offense isn’t nearly the same without him.
Oklahoma shouldn’t be catching points in this one. They are the more motivated club and the more complete football team. Take the 3 points here.