As we head into summer, the U.S. is filled with balloons, signs, events and more celebrating the country’s 250th anniversary. Even in this festive atmosphere, two out of five (around 40%) Americans don’t believe the country will survive another 250 years, according to results of a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Most Americans (62%) do think the country will last another 250 years. However, significant portions of Democrats (40%) and Republicans (26%) think the U.S. won’t get through the next two and a half centuries as a single nation.
This four-day poll included responses from 1,537 U.S. adults nationwide and it concluded this Monday. That was a day after President Donald Trump welcomed the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) to hold cage matches on the White House lawn, a controversial move that involved constructing a huge stage that towered over the presidential mansion.
Trump’s administration has also planned several events and initiatives to celebrate the anniversary of U.S. independence coming up on July 4. These plans come at a time of political polarization in the U.S., and as the president’s approval ratings have fallen.
“On Monday he said he would be the main attraction at a July 4 celebration in Washington that will also serve as a political rally for the Republican as his party looks to keep control of Congress in November’s midterm elections,” Reuters noted. Previously, a number of musical guests slated to perform at the “Great American State Fair,” dropped out of the event and some said that the event was more political than they believed it would be when they first agreed to perform.
Those performers aren’t the only people who are a bit wary of the Trump administration’s anniversary celebrations. A majority of Americans included in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, including three-quarters of Democrats and half of Republicans, said they thought the events celebrating the country’s 250th anniversary had grown too political.
Trump and the Republican party (including his MAGA loyalists) have claimed that they are saving the country from Democrats. On the other hand, Democrats point to Trump and the GOP as threats to democracy, a core tenant of American ideology.
Tension over democracy between Republicans and Democrats often focuses on election integrity. Trump has claimed that the 2020 election was “stolen” from him, though it was won by former President Joe Biden. His supporters even tried to block certification of votes for Biden during the deadly 2021 Capitol riot, and Trump has since pardoned them. He’s also hinted at perusing a third term, though that would be in violation of the Constitution.
“Two-thirds of respondents – including 85% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans – said they agreed with a statement that American democracy was in danger of failing,” Reuters said. “The overall share seeing democracy at risk was up from 57% in a poll conducted in August of last year, with the increase driven by more Republicans worried about democracy’s staying power,” and 77% of poll respondents said it was likely that political violence would increase in the next five years.
Trump has been the subject of multiple assassination attempts, including one this year at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. Conservative activist Charlie Kirk was assassinated last year, as well as Democratic lawmaker Melissa Hortman. Her killer also attacked other Democratic lawmakers.
Results of the Reuters/Ipsos poll also showed the share of Americans who see the country as a global standout is on the decline. Around 30% of respondents said they considered America the greatest country in the world, down from 38% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted during November 2017, when Trump was serving his first term in the White House.
“The share of Democrats with this view fell to 11% from 26%, while the share of Republicans held steady at about six in 10,” said Reuters.
Could the clock really be running out for the U.S.? To answer that question, we have to go way back in time.
In a book rather ominously titled “All Societies Die” for Cornell University Press, Samuel Cohn argues that the U.S. is headed to an inevitable demise. That doesn’t mean that it will happen anytime soon, Cohen explained.
“If you look at the Roman Empire, the Byzantine Empire, the various dynasties of China and the Old, Middle, and New Kingdoms of Egypt, these empires lasted an average of a little over 550 years,” he said. “Rome had a long life at about 900 years.”
Cohn said that the start of Modern Western civilization can be traced to the end of the Middle Ages, when our current period of economic and technological growth began, leading to today’s high standard of living. A period of European dominance began around 500 years ago, when Christopher Columbus landed in the New World.
“That would give us the average length of age of an empire when it falls – although many empires last much longer,” said Cohn. He said that, based on other empires, the West has a chance of existing as an empire for around 800 years altogether at the optimistic end – and that would allow the U.S. to clear another 250 years.
Meanwhile, Americans today are divided on how to celebrate our first 250 years. For example, more than half (52%) of Republicans plan to wear red, white and blue on July 4, compared to just 20% of Democrats. Republicans are also more likely to see a fireworks show at 46% compared to 28% of Democrats.
