The 2021 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 gets started on Saturday and we have a high level matchup in the South Region.
No. 1 seed Baylor showed signs of their former self over their first weekend, handling Hartford and Wisconsin while Villanova silenced critics with two impressive wins of their own.
How will this matchup go? Let’s dig in:
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
No. 5 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 1 Baylor Bears (-7, 140.5) - 5:15 PM EST, Saturday
Villanova had an easier path than most, matched up with mid-major opponents Winthrop and North Texas during the first weekend, but that doesn’t take away from the impressive showing from Jay Wright’s Wildcats.
After losing senior guard Collin Gillespie to a torn MCL in early March, many were skeptical of how Nova would operate without their floor general, including yours truly.
Well, the team responded with added ball security, six turnovers in both games, and essentially converting Jeremiah Robinson-Earl to a point guard. The Nova big man dished out six assists in each contest last weekend.
However, Baylor should pose a ton of issues for Villanova in the Sweet 16.
Not only do the Bears have a high ball pressure defense, third in the nation in turnover rate, they have the offense that can blitz Villanova’s questionable D.
Winthrop and North Texas couldn’t keep up with Villanova’s offense, but it’s going to be the Wildcats trying to keep up with Baylor’s insane shot making.
Scott Drew’s offense is best in the country in three-point shooting and Nova isn’t going to expose Baylor’s issue of defensive rebounding.
While the Bears are outside the nation’s top 250 in defensive rebounding rate, Nova is right around the national average in offensive rebounding percentage.
The three-headed backcourt of Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, and MaCio Teague should be able to get a ton of clean looks and give Villanova fits on the other end with their suffocating defense.
Baylor should be able to clear this spread and win this one by double digits.
Pick: Baylor -7
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