ST. LOUIS (KMOX) - We know the Cardinals are 3-games ahead of the Cubs heading into this weekend's series but how do the Cardinals and Cubs really match up??? Let's take a look!
Record (last 10 games)
Cardinals 25-18 (6-4)
Cubs 22-21 (5-5)
Offense (NL rank)
Cardinals
fWAR - 5.9 (5th)
wRC+ - 97 (6th)
AVG - .235 (8th)
OPS - .710 (7th)
Runs - 193 (8th)
Cubs
fWAR - 6.1 (3rd)
wRC+ - 102 (4th)
AVG - .239 (5th)
OPS - .731 (3rd)
Runs - 198 (7th)
Clearly these are very similar offensive teams with a slight advantage to the Cubs. A lot of the Cubs hitters who struggled in 2019 and 2020 have bounced back (especially Kris Bryant) and the Cardinals offense is also a good bit better than it was the past couple of years. That's because of the addition of Nolan Arenado, the development of Dylan Carlson and some improved numbers from Yadier Molina, Tyler O'Neill and Harrison Bader.
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Pitching (NL rank)
Cardinals
fWAR - 3.8 (8th)
FIP - 4.06 (7th)
ERA - 3.85 (7th)
OBA - .220 (5th)
SP ERA - 3.77 (7th)
RP ERA - 3.98 (8th)
Cubs
fWAR - 1.5 (14th)
FIP - 4.52 (13th)
ERA - 4.20 (10th)
OBA - .244 (11th)
SP ERA - 5.07 (15th)
RP ERA - 3.16 (2nd)
For the most part the pitching favors the Cardinals by a good bit. Even though the Cardinals rotation hasn't been 100% yet (finally appear to be getting there this weekend) they've significantly outperformed the Cubs rotation. That said, the Cubs have had one of the best bullpens in the NL this year and that's a bit of a surprise. The edge goes to the Cardinals with pitching but it might not end up being a major factor in the series since both Carlos Martinez and Miles Mikolas are coming off the IL and therefore uncertain factors and because their ace, Jack Flaherty, won't pitch in the series.
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Defense (NL Rank)
Cardinals
Defensive Runs Above Average - 1.9 (6th)
Defensive Runs Saved - 8 (7th)
Cubs
Defensive Runs Above Average - -6.8 (14th)
Defensive Runs Saved - -8 (14th)
The Cardinals are clearly the better defensive team and that's something the eye test will tell you as well as the advanced stats. Keep in mind, the Cardinals defense is actually a good bit better than those numbers show in large part due to the number of games missed by key defenders Harrison Bader, Tyler O'Neill and Yadier Molina. The Cubs are a bad defensive team based on the metrics and that certainly doesn't help a starting rotation that's made up of pitch-to-contact, low velocity guys.
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Who wins the series?
No clue! Hahaha. The variables involved in having two starters come off the DL, with Mikolas making his first Major League start of the year, throw everything up into the air. The one thing I feel pretty confident in saying is that I don't think we're looking at a sweep either way this weekend...
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