February 2 is one of the most exciting days in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Thousands of people brave the cold to watch the most famous prognosticating groundhog Punxsutawney Phil emerge from his tree stump at Gobbler's Knob and predict the weather.
Top hat-wearing members of Phil's "inner circle" summon the groundhog at dawn, hold him up to his applauding, adoring fans and then read a scroll containing his prediction.
According to legend, if the 20-pound groundhog sees his shadow, the United States can expect six more weeks of winter weather. If furry forecaster doesn't see his shadow, it signals warmer temperatures and the arrival of an early spring.
The grand event in Pennsylvania is something that started in 1887, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. But why exactly has the tradition lasted 136 years and grown into the celebration that we know and love today? And is there any science behind Phil's predictions?
The Groundhog Club says the holiday started in early Christianity as "Candlemas" when the faithful would have their candles blessed in church to bring blessings to their households for the remaining winter. The day evolved over time and became associated with weather patterns upon the emergence of an English folk song: "If Candlemas be fair and bright / Come, Winter, have another flight; If Candlemas brings clouds and rain / Go Winter, and come not again."
German lore took the tradition one step further and introduced an animal to the equation: a hedgehog, according to the club. If the hedgehog saw his shadow on Candlemas, there would be a "second winter" or 6 more weeks of bad weather. When German settlers came to America, they brought the belief with them and in absence of any hedgehogs, chose the groundhog to continue on the tradition.
In 1887, Phil made his debut as the official groundhog forecaster -- and saw his shadow. His first prediction of six more weeks of winter was accurate for a few regions of the country, but it came up short for several others, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Since then, his track record for the entire country hasn't been perfect. Over the past 136 years, he's predicted winter more than 100 times. Statistics from NOAA show Phil's accuracy rate is about 40% over the last decade.
While Phil's forecasts might not be the most accurate, and meteorologists today have far more advanced forecasting methods than shadow-seeing, there is some scientific basis for the legend. Daniel Blumstein, a professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at UCLA, explained the early thinking to NPR, saying if there was a high-pressure system in early February, things likely weren't changing and it would probably continue to be cold, while a low-pressure system suggests the potential for better weather ahead.
Why the tradition has stuck around so long doesn't really have anything to do with Phil being right or wrong anyway, according to Troy Harman, a history professor at Penn State University.
"That many nationalities being together all in one place to remember something from the medieval past and from a premodern period, and to bring in the music and to bring in the foods and the culture — it's a real uplifting event," Harman told NPR. "I strongly suspect that the people that go to Gobbler's Knob are fully aware of the power of science, but at the same time want to hold on to traditions and a deeper vibe."
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