Before floodwaters rushed into the nearly century-old Camp Mystic in Texas this July 4 – resulting in the deaths of young campers – there were signs that the area was dangerous.
A new report from NPR, PBS’s FRONTLINE and data scientists shows that more of the camp was at risk for dangerous flooding than the federal government previously indicated. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) maps are used to determine flood risks and prioritize mitigation measures.
“Maps by First Street, a climate risk modeling company in New York City, show at least 17 structures in the path of flood waters, compared to maps produced by FEMA, highlighting a longstanding risk facing many Americans,” according to a report from NPR. “The analysis also shows at least four cabins for young campers were in an area designated by FEMA as an extreme flood hazard, where water moves at its highest velocity and depth.”
Jeremy Porter, head of Climate Implications at First Street, said that “the unknown flood risk is bad from a preparation, financial standpoint, but there’s a human element here that often gets overlooked.”
Per CBS News, many of the girls who perished in the flood were just 8 or 9 years old. As of Thursday morning, an estimated 27 people from the camp had died, including 74-year-old co-owner and executive director Dick Eastland as he reportedly tried to save campers, said The New York Times.
Camp Mystic – located in Hunt, Texas, near the Guadalupe River – was first established in 1926 by University of Texas coach “Doc” Stewart, according to the camp website. In 1939 Agnes Stacy, Eastland’s grandmother, and her husband Pop Stacy purchased the camp. Eastland and his wife have been running the camp since 1974. At least one summer session had been held there for most years since 1942 and since the early 1980s multiple sessions have been held every year.
While the camp provided generations of girls with fun times and memories, there was a severe danger lurking in the beautiful central Texas landscape. The Times reported that “Camp Mystic managers and emergency officials had been aware of the dangers the river posed for decades,” and noted that a 1987 flood at a nearby camp killed 10 teenagers.
After that tragedy, a system of rain gauges that could notify emergency personnel of an imminent flood was installed. Eastland worked to approve that system and believed it would give people more time to react during flood events.
More recently, officials in the region sought to enhance the river warning system to add better gauges, sirens and more. However, the Times said that “with taxpayers wary of new spending, and local officials unable to secure grants,” progress stagnated.
An analysis of federal data from the outlet indicated that 19 of the Camp Mystic cabins were in designated flood zones. Some were in zones considered “extremely hazardous” and at six were either partially or fully in the floodway.
“The camp pursued an expansion project six years ago. Instead of relocating cabins to higher ground, it put new ones in the flood zone,” said The Times report.
According to Jim Blackburn, co-director of the Severe Storm Prevention, Education and Evacuation from Disaster Center at Rice University in Houston, “no one should be in a floodway,” as cited by NPR. He added that floodways are “the most dangerous of a danger zone.”
A recent investigation by NPR and FRONTLINE also found that groups like home developers’ associations have lobbied Congress for less flood regulation, thus slowing down flood map updates. Developers told the outlet that they want to keep homes affordable. Blackburn explained that Texas officials don’t always appreciate the severity of flooding concerns.
“In Texas, we don’t think the floodplains are that serious,” he said. “We treat floodplains as a kind of good old boy, kind of wink and nod, [as though] it’s environmental red tape. And that’s going to get a lot of people killed.”
In Kerr County, where Camp Mystic is located, there are stringent floodway rules. Even so, local officials authorized the $5 million construction project at Camp Mystic that put new structures in the flood risk zone. At the time of the deadly flood, Camp Mystic’s dining hall, recreation hall, and four cabins all appeared to be in the floodway, the Times said. Hundreds of campers were at the site.
Anna Serra-Llobet, a researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, who specializes in flood risk management, told the Times that building in a floodway is like “pitching a tent in the highway.”
According to NPR, Kerr County officials declined its request for an interview, citing the ongoing emergency, and FEMA did not respond to its request for comment. The Times said that Camp Mystic officials did respond to questions about the camp’s construction or flood preparations, though it did pass state inspection just two days before the flood.
As of Thursday, the total death toll from the recent Texas floods was at 120 people, with more still missing. According to a Wednesday press release from Gov. Greg Abbott, the state deployed over 2,200 personnel and more than 1,200 vehicles and equipment assets to assist with the emergency. A Wednesday press release from FEMA said that it was working to open a Disaster Recovery Center Thursday to help survivors of the storms.