COVID-19 was not developed as a biological weapon, according to government documents from the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence that were unclassified Friday.
Additionally, most intelligence agencies contacted believe that COVID-19 was not genetically engineered, with two reporting that they did not have sufficient evidence to determine if it was. Overall, agencies found that China did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the outbreak, said the documents
Cases of COVID-19 were first reported in late 2019 in Wuhan, a city in Hubei Province, China. The Wuhan Institute of Virology, a lab where infectious diseases are studied, is located in the city. Due to this connection, some have questioned whether the COVID-19 originated in the lab.
According to the national intelligence documents, those looking into the source of the pandemic remain “divided in the most likely origin of COVID-19” after examining all available intelligence. However, all agencies agreed that two hypotheses are plausible. One is the lab leak theory and the other is natural exposure to an infected animal.
The National Intelligence council and “four [intelligence community] elements assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus,” said the documents.
Another intelligence community element assessed with “moderate” confidence that the first human SARS-CoV-2 infection was the result of a laboratory incident, probably associated with the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Analysts from another three intelligence community elements were unable to determine a cause.
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“Variations in analytic views largely stem from differences in how agencies weigh intelligence reporting and scientific publications, and intelligence and scientific gaps,” said the government documents.
Unless new information about the early stages of the outbreak is discovered, the intelligence community does not think a conclusive answer to the origin of the pandemic can be determined.
“If we obtain information on the earliest cases that identified a location of interest or occupational exposure, it may alter our evaluation of hypotheses,” said the unclassified documents. “China’s cooperation most likely would be needed to reach a conclusive assessment of the origins of COVID-19. Beijing, however, continues to hinder the global investigation, resist sharing information and blame other countries, including the United States.”
From the perspective of the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, China’s lack of cooperation reflects its government’s uncertainty about where an investigation could lead, “as well as its frustration the international community is using the issue to exert political pressure on China.”
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